NBA Finals Game 2, Game 3 prediction

My game two prediction was pretty spot on. I said the Warriors would make defensive adjustments on Siakam and Van Vleet, which is exactly what happened. Their attempts were not as open, and they shrunk to the occasion. With that said, Kyle Lowry should not escape blame. He has underachieved offensively throughout the playoffs, and he totally disappeared Sunday night. He is supposedly a star, so he should be the second scorer behind Kawhi Leonard. Lowry is 34 years old, so maybe his age is starting to show. Leonard played a good game, but he needed to dominate in order to win. 

The Warriors did what the Warriors do; the played great team basketball. Of their 38 made field goals, 34 came off assists. I did not anticipate DeMarcus Cousins having the type of game he did, more due to his injury than talent. He played twenty more minutes than he did Game 1, and had a far bigger impact. He look more comfortable on offense, and he helped remedy the loss of Kevon Looney. In 28 minutes, Cousins finished with 11 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists.

If Klay Thompson is hurt for Game 3, that could change everything. I do not expect Durant to play, but I do think Thompson will, considering how durable he’s been in the past. He was critical in Game 2, making clutch shots until he left in the third quarter.

Golden State took control with one of their patented third quarter runs, just as I said they would. They went on 20-3 run to start the quarter. Toronto had their chance to take total control here, but they left the door open. As I said before, lack of Finals experience is hurting them. 

Steph Curry was upset that the Raptors played box-and-one defense down the stretch, but it worked actually. The only think that kept me from getting the final score right was that the Warriors couldn’t score for the last three minutes, until Iguodala hit the three with a few second left. That defense will only work if Thompson isn’t on the floor. I fully expect Toronto to employ this again if Thompson is hurt.

I think Game 3 will be another close one, around the same final score. I doubt the Raptors will start off well, considering they will be on the road. I think the Warriors will grab early momentum and never look back. Toronto will make runs to keep it close, but I believe the Warriors will make just enough key shots to win. Warriors win 110-107.

NBA Finals Game 1 recap (plus Game 2 prediction)

Jeez is the NBA annoying at times. All I've heard about recently is Drake, Klay Thompson complaining, and people killing Greek Freak for walking out of a press conference. Drake is somewhat cowardly because he won't go to road games, Klay should be happy for his fellow NBA players (I'm biased because I love Kemba Walker), and no one killed Embiid when he cried (after laughing about trying to break someone's jaw earlier in the playoffs). No that I addressed all the tabloid crap, thank the lord the Finals are finally here.
The moment wasn't too big for the Raptors, which it very well could have been. This is not shocking, however, considering they were at home. I highly doubt the game would have played out the same way in Oakland, and the Warriors are not used to starting a series in the road. Also, they had 7 days off, so rust was clearly a factor.

I picked the Warriors to win in 6. I believe this despite thinking each game will be close. I'm sticking with my pick, assuming the Warriors win game 2. There is no reason to panic, game 2 is a must win now. They should be fine, but they cannot slack off at all. Toronto presents a unique challenge, due to their length and defensive prowess. The Raptors are far superior on defense to Portland, and their are feeling confident after shutting down the probable league MVP in Giannis Antentukuompo.

The question of whether or not Kevin Durant will return is being ratcheted up now. His elite scoring ability and length would be the great equalizer, since the rest of the Warrior team is undersized. As great as they are offensively, Steph Curry is the only other player who can create his own shot. Klay Thompson is a catch-and-shoot guy, and Draymond is most effective in the pick and roll. DeMarcus Cousin made his return, but he was less than impressive. Although his big body and energy made him have a presence, his was too robotic and awkward to have a real impact on the game. He only played eight minutes.

Champions crush the enemy when they are wounded, which is why Game 2 is so critical for Toronto. If they lose, the series will be tied and the Warriors will have momentum (which is what I predict). If Toronto wins, they will have a commanding 2-0 lead. Now that they have some pressure on them, the Raptors must respond in kind. They will go as far as their role players take them. Namely Pascal Siakam. I expect Marc Gasol to have a veteran presence, and Fred Van Vleet should be able to hit some threes. But Siakam actually seems like a borderline star. I do not question his ability, just his lack of experience. He had some mediocre games earlier in the playoffs, so I have to see him dominate an entire series to believe it. He needs to, because it appears Kawhi Leonard is incapable of carrying the team like has been. If Siakam falls off, I doubt anyone can step up as a consistent second scorer.

The Warriors are still the class of the NBA, but now they are being tested a bit. They are never flustered by bad starts, because the usually take over with third quarter bursts. The aforementioned rust was a big factor, but the Warriors were definitely unprepared. Toronto is an unfamiliar opponent, as Klay Thompson stated in his postgame press conference. Their defensive rotations were subpar, leading to the Raptors hitting a bunch of early threes and grabbing the momentum. Though understandable, I still blame the coach. Steve Kerr need to make some major adjustments in game two. This is where I believe experience factors in, as I fully expect those changes to be made. Kerr is having his coaching merit truly tested, since he has to deal with coming up new schemes not featuring Durant, as well as dealing with the pressure of forcing him back. I never though Kerr was just along for the ride, but my opinion may change if the Warriors get swept away in this series. I fully expect them to turn things around Sunday night and win 115-104.

NFL Draft 2019

NFL Draft 2019

The NFL Draft has come and gone. Finally. Already it’s a month later than it used to be, and it’s now spread out over three days. Anyway, I survived it, and here is my stellar analysis.

Although the early part of the draft was chock full of surprises, the first three picks were anything but. As was predicted for weeks, the Cardinals took Kyler Murray first, the 49ers took Joey Bosa second, and Quinnen Williams went third to the Jets.

Day 1:

Murray to Arizona was a terribly kept secret, considering they removed all signs of Josh Rosen from the team’s promotional material. Rosen, the tenth overall pick last year, is now headed to Miami, leaving the coast clear for Murray. Murray did unbelievable things at Oklahoma last year, but he only started one season. Hard to hold that against him however, since the guy starting ahead of him was last years’ first pick Baker Mayfield. Murray has a combo of arm strength and running ability not seen since Colin Kaepernick, albeit with a much smaller frame. He’s closest thing we’ve seen to Michael Vick, and the fact that he’s the same height as Russell Wilson made his small size less of an issue. It’s a huge risk, but none of the other quarterbacks in the draft were can’t miss prospects. So even if he’s a bust, Murray will help the Cards sell tickets.

The 49ers taking Bosa was an obvious choice as well. Although the team used three consecutive first round picks on edge rushers (before taking T Mike McGlinchy last year), those guys cannot actually rush the edge. Arik Armstead, DeForrest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas all are good interior linemen, but teams are able to get outside on them frequently. Bosa is a little undersized for a defensive end, but his versatility is why he’s so valuable. He can play outside linebacker as well, and his pure pass rush ability is off the charts. He also has a strong bloodline, as his brother is a star for the Chargers and his dad was a former first round pick. There is also significant injury history in his family, and he suffered a big injury last year. Hopefully that isn’t an issue moving forward.

Quinnen Williams was considered by many to be the best d-lineman in a stacked class, so this was a good value pick for the Jets at #3. He may not be the pure outside rusher Bosa is, but he is stronger and is a far better interior run stopper. San Francisco had enough inside guys, so Willians filled more of a need for New York. Leonard Williams has underachieved since going sixth four years ago, so Quinnen should take pressure off of him. He is a pure competitor, a quality Leonard allegedly lacks. He played for Nick Saban at Alabama, a program known for producing stellar defensive picks. All in all, Williams was by far the best available player here, so no complaints with the pick.

The Raiders taking Clelin Ferrell fourth was somewhat surprising, considering there were many pass rushers ranked ahead of him. Jon Gruden could have taken Khalil Mack’s replacement in Josh Allen, who is a similar prototype. But they took Ferrell, seemingly due to his character. He was raised by two military parents, and is known as an extremely hard worker. I’m sure playing for the recent Clemson dynasty helped too. I cannot kill the pick, but I do have one concern; Ferrell needs to be developed, and dysfunctional organizations tend to struggle with that. Not to mention how little they got back from the Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper trades. Mack is a superstar and Cooper is elite, yet they yielded the 24th and 27th picks respectively. They used those picks on Bama RB Josh Jacobs and Mississippi St. safety Johnathan Abram. Considering how low those picks were, it is really hard to justify the trades.

Devin White was the first linebacker taken, going to Tampa at 5. This was an obvious one, as well as when the next LB Devin Bush went to the Steelers at #10. Both were drafted to replace superstars. Tampa lost Kwon Alexander to the 49ers in free agency, and Pittsburgh still needed to replace Ryan Shazier since he suffered near paralysis in 2017. White is an elite blitzer, who should fit well in new DC Todd Bowles’ system. He also also more than competent in coverage, a skill that should continue to develop. Many believe he may already be better in coverage than Alexander was. They surprisingly passed on some elite edge rushing defensive ends, but they probably felt the linebacker market was more sparse.
The Steelers wanted Bush all along, evident by the fact they traded up ten spots to get him. Bush is the son of a former NFL safety, he ran a 4.4 at the combine, and he has a remarkably high motor. Expect to see him on the field a great deal as a rookie.

Undoubtedly the most shocking pick of the draft was the Giants selecting Duke QB Daniel Jones at #6. It’s funny because GM Dave Gettleman found a way to do what the fan base wanted while ticking them off at the same time. According to Pro Football Focus, Jones was the fifth best QB available, and the 70th prospect overall. Jones is a big athletic kid with potential for sure. With that said, it is hard to justify taking him at #6. Especially considering they most likely could have gotten him at #17. This paved the way for Jacksonville to get Josh Allen, a beast of a pass rusher, at #7. The Giants could have had Jones and arguably the pass rusher in the draft. Instead, they took Dexter Lawrence, an enormous d-tackle who can clog the middle but not much else. Gettleman got the QB he wanted, but he better be right. Not to mention their hated rivals in Washington got Dwayne Haskins, the guy New York should have picked in my opinion. I mean he threw 50 touchdowns last year for God’s sake. Jones is a better runner than Haskins, but last time I checked the quarterback is supposed to throw the ball.

The top of this draft was chock full of linemen, both on offense and defense. Of the 32 first round picks, 19 were big boys. Ed Oliver to Buffalo at #9 made perfect sense. He had a great career at Houston, and was expected by many to be drafted higher. He has an incredibly high motor, which should rub off on his teammates. Considering that star defensive tackle Kyle Williams just retired, Oliver will fit in seamlessly.

Cincinnati got a steal in OT Jonah Williams at #11, who many considered the best offensive lineman in the draft. The Alabama product was knocked for having short arms, but that does not seem to hinder his ability. Ereck Flowers had short arms too, but he couldn’t play in general. It still may be true that he’s a better fit at guard, but the teams felt he was too good to pass up. They think they can make it work.

DT Christian Wilkins went #13 to Miami. He can play in multiple minutes packages, as he is the perfect blend of size and athleticism. Also, he showed how ballsy he is by roughing up the commissioner on stage. His Clemson pedigree clearly raised his value, considering three d-linemen from that school got picked in the first round. It is hard to justify not filling the QB hole by taking Haskins, but they very well could tank for Tua Tagovailoa next year.

Atlanta and Minnesota took Chris Lindstrom and Garrett Bradbury respectively, a guard and a center. Both teams had other needs, but they ultimately viewed protecting their franchise QBs as the biggest priority. Philly and Houston did the same thing (for the same reason) by taking tackles Andre Dillard and Tytus Howard back-to-back at 22 and 23. Both of those teams have QBs who could be one hit away from being done. Offensive linemen are not sexy picks, but they can be very substantive.

It looks like the Redskins got their QB of the future in Dwayne Haskins at #15. His fall was confounding, especially considering what the Giants did. Haskins had an unbelievable season last year at Ohio State, but was still unpolished. He would have greatly benefited by staying an extra year, but everyone thought he would be a top ten pick. Despite his mediocre footwork and below average athleticism, he throws a laser beam. His throwing arm is elite, so he will be fine in this league. The other stuff can be taught. Washington May have had the best first round out of anyone, as they traded back in and got Montez Sweat at #26. He was another elite edge rusher in this draft, who only fell because of a heart condition. This was a great job to get him this late, and they would not have had the picks to make the trade had they moved up to draft Haskins.

Baltimore made a gutsy pick at #25, taking Oklahoma receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. Brown possesses lightning speed, and could be the most explosive pass catcher this team has had in awhile. He also happens to be the cousin of superstar Antonio Brown. The biggest potential problem here is style of play. Brown is known for taking the top off of defenses, but Lamar Jackson has not yet developed the ability to throw the deep ball. Since they are both so young, they could very well both develop together and adapt their games. If not, people will look back at this pick and wonder if the Ravens forgot they traded Joe Flacco to Denver.

The last pick of round one was also a receiver, ASU’s N’Keal Harry. This is the first time ever that Bill Belichick drafted a receiver in the first round. He also passed on some bigger names at that position, including physical freak D.K. Metcalf. Harry’s tape does not exactly wow the viewer, but he is known for being able to pluck balls out of the air. His hands are great, and he has good size. Yet he was not an effective red zone target for some reason. His is a raw prospect, but everyone knows the Pats will figure it out.

Day 2:

I will admit, I am not a college football junkie like most draft analysts. I am an NFL fan primarily, but I have an eye for the game in general. So with that said, here is a relatively quick recap of the best pick throughout the rest of the draft.

Jacksonville made the first second round splash by taking Florida tackle Jawaan Taylor #35. His had great game film in college, and should really help bolster their line. After him, there was a long stretch of receivers picked. Deebo Samuel went #36 to the Niners, A.J. Brown went #51 to Tennessee, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside went #57 to Philly, Parris Campbell went #59 to Indy, Andy Isabella went #62 to Arizona, and the aforementioned D.K. Metcalf went #64 to Seattle.

Samuel is a bit of a project, but his upside is huge. His college numbers were underwhelming, but he has shown ability in the red zone. He is smart for his age, and can run many different routes. This is the perfect fit for Coach Shanahan, who loves cerebral players. Brown is a pure slot receiver who put up way better numbers than his Ole Miss teammate Metcalf. He averaged over 100 yards per game this past season. The Titans still need a deep threat, but Brown was too talented to pass up.

Arcega-Whiteside is the son of two professional basketball players, and he plays football like it. He has great hands, and is a beast in the red zone. Due to the aggressive style of QB Carson Wentz, J.J. will have plenty of opportunities to catch touchdowns. Considering Philly already has a top red zone threat in Zach Ertz, this pick could be a match made in heaven, especially after losing Golden Tate.

Indy finally got a true big play threat in Campbell. The Ohio State product ran a blazing 4.31 40-yard dash in the combine. Most of his big plays came on short passes where he did work after the catch. He is the perfect fit for Frank Reich’s quick hitter offense, and he could easily develop into a good deep threat.

Andy Isabella from UMass also ran a 4.31, causing teams to take note of the small school product. He is small, but could be deadly in open space. Expect to seem he and Kyler Murray develop a connection very quickly.

Nasir Adderley went #60 to the Chargers, adding to their already incredible defensive backfield. The fact that he played at Delaware likely hurt his stock, but most believe he is an unbelievable talent. He is a great playmaker, and has coveted position versatility. He can play either safety position, and can play even play slot corner when he needs to. His athleticism and energy will be a great addition in LA. The Chargers has a rookie safety do spectacular thing last year in Derwin James, so that pairing could be truly scary.

The Pats got Michigan edge Chase Winovich at #77. He fell because he was viewed as a system player, but his numbers certainly suggest he can play. The Patriots know how to develop players, so this kid will likely be a star eventually.

Michigan State CB Justin Layne went 83rd to Pittsburgh, and he may be the biggest steal of the draft. He was rarely targeted, a sign of a shutdown corner. He does not possess elite straight line speed, but he is ideal for a cover 3 defense. He is tall for a corner (6’2”), and the fact he’s was converted from receiver made him more in-tune to what they are doing. He is elite at pass recognition, so he can potential turn into a great slot corner. Learning from veteran Joe Haden should definitely speed up Jo’s growth.

The Chiefs picked a potential steal in DT Khalen Saunders at #84, which is great third round value. He is atypical for a 320 plus pound lineman, since he can penetrate as opposed to just clogging his hole. The man can do a freaking backflip at that size, so it is hard to question his athleticism. He has a great first step, making in very hard to block down on him. He ate first rounder Chris Lindstrom up in the senior bowl. He is yet another small school guy that fell, but he will get playing time immediately for a Chiefs team that only has one other d-tackle under contract.

So there you have it. Every team has their rookies in place, and now we have the privilege of waiting four months for the regular season. I will do a recap of day three eventually, but all this reading about the draft was making me dizzy. The AAF briefly relieved my football withdrawals, but that league died. So I guess it’s NBA/NHL playoffs and baseball for now. Hang in there, fellow football fans. It’ll be her before you know it.

NFL Free Agency

NFL Free Agency 2019

The NFL season has been over for a couple months now, but this time of year is when fans get intrigued about what changes their teams will make. The draft is a few weeks away, and the first big wave of free agents have signed. Their are still a few big names out there (Ndamukong Suh, Eric Berry, Ziggy Ansah, Jamie Collins), but most teams have already made big decisions about their futures. I never though we would see an offseason where the Browns and Jets are arguably the biggest needle movers. Every year sees a ton of excitement, but this year was particularly intriguing.

Like every year, a handful of guys missed out on free agency due to the franchise tag. Defensive ends Frank Clark of Seattle and Jadeveon Clowney of Houston both received $17.1 million in franchise tags. Dallas DE DeMarcus Lawrence was franchised for $20.5 million. KC franchised DE Dee Ford, then traded him to the 49ers.

Nick Foles to Jacksonville: Whether or not Nick Foles is actually good may be debated forever. But the Jaguars’ opinion is the only one that matters, and they view him as the QB of the future. Foles was never able to beat out Carson Wentz in an open competition, but he was an unbelievable backup. In stints where he had to fill in the last two years, Foles won a Super Bowl and then had a nice run in year two. Philly could not keep him, considering you cannot pay two quarterbacks starter salaries. Jacksonville inherited him, but was it a good idea? First off, his contract will pay an average of $22 million, before it incentives. That’s more than the likes of Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Russell Wilson, all better players. But when you consider that relatively unproven Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo are making roughly $28 mil, Foles’ contract does not seem so bad. Timing is everything, as QB salaries are constantly rising. So the contract is actually a bargain by current standards. Desperation was also a factor here. Jacksonville found a way to be a contender despite bad QB play by Blake Bortles a couple years ago. This past season, however, his play went from bad to hideous. Tom Couglin is running this team, and he is insanely competitive. So the desire to not become a laughingstock is a good justification for an arguably rash decision. This is a risky decision, but it is actually very sensible. The team is unlikely to gain a high enough draft pick to get their quarterback of the future, so Foles is the perfect stopgap. The four year contract should likely take him through the remainder of his prime. Even if he stinks, he cannot be worse than Bortles. So the Jags did what they had to do, now they’re crossing their fingers.

Kansas City Decline?:
What on earth is going on in Kansas City? Their already porous defense lost everyone of note, and the Tyreek Hill off-the-field situation now has the entire future of the team in question. Obviously they lost Kareem Hunt in the middle of last season, but the effect are still being felt. They signed Carlos Hyde, but he will only be effective in a two-back backfield if Damian Williams steps up. Most of their losses were on defense, which one could argue is a good thing. Their defense was abysmal last year despite having a good pass rush. They lost pass rushers Dee Ford and Justin Houston, and did almost nothing to replace him. Despite being a good run stopper, newly signed DE Alex Okafor adds very little around the edge. With that said, they looked to have improved the secondary. Adding S Tyrann Mathieu should be a huge upgrade. He is a star who can make highlight plays. He had injury issues earlier in his career, but since he played all sixteen games the last two seasons that is no longer a concern. Despite his physical ability, it is unlikely he will replace the leadership of Eric Berry. Berry was the heart and soul of the team, but his age was creeping up. Cornerback Bashaud Breeland joined on a one year, $5 million dollar deal. He is still a good player, and this is a low risk signing. Despite this, it feels like too much change in one offseason. It will be hard for all these new pieces to mesh.

OBJ TRADE:
The football world was stunned when Odell Beckham Jr was traded from the Giants to the Browns for the 17th and 95th picks in the upcoming draft, as well as safety Jabrill Peppers. The Giants were ridiculed for this trade, but I think the return was actually pretty good. Peppers made huge strides in his second season last year. Despite being true strong safety, he was switched to free safety his rookie year and looked lost. In year two he went back to his natural position and looked much better. He was a superstar and Heisman Finalist at Michigan, so I believe he will be a solid replacement for Landon Collins (who signed with the Redskins). The 17th pick may seem too low, but Giants GM Dave Gettleman’s affinity for linemen will make it work. This is a draft chock full of linemen, so he will likely be able to get one of good value with that pick. If not, he can use it on a QB like Daniel Jones or Drew Lock if he does not like Dwayne Haskins.

Personal relationships often dictate the decisions that GMs make, not unlike most other workplaces. It appears that is what happened with Odell Beckham Jr. with the Giants. His countless cryptic tweets, his ESPN tell-all interview, and seemiing to not try to play through a minor injury made him expendable to GM Dave Gettkeman. He cannot stand divas, and new face-of-franchise Saquom Barkley is the furthest thing from that. Odell had become more trouble than he was worth. The trade was odd because the contract extension he got last year meant the Giants had to swallow a cap hit. That hot is only for this season however, so it will not be a hinderance long term. Plus, having a superstar receiver guarantees nothing. Randy Moss and Julio Jones came close, but it is rare that a Super Bowl champion has a receiver of that caliber. Quarterbacks, pass rushers, and defensive backs tend to have more of an individual impact. Had the giants won more than five games each of the last two years, maybe my take would be different. I cannot, however, kill the team for moving on when the have to make big changes to change their fortunes. Finally drafting a quarterback needs to be the next step, for the love of God. For Beckham, hopefully reuniting with his BFF Jarvis Landry helps him get his mind right. But considering he’s still acting weird all over social media, this team in Cleveland could implode quickly.

Antonio Brown trade:
OBJ was not the only high profile receiver to get traded recently. Antonio Brown got his wish of getting traded from Pittsburgh, and getting a new contract on arrival. His new team, the Raiders, have been a mess lately, so I do not expect this to work at all. QB Derek Carr was being called a busy by some a year ago, I’m not sure if the have a home stadium for next year, and Jon Gruden is a nutcase. Whether or not Ben Roethlisberger is a good leader, AB violates every piece of locker room code imaginable when he didn’t play in a must win game at the end of last year. His off-putting acts off the field are a red flag too. The Raiders may have brought him in for publicity, or simply because they have no talent at the position. But it makes trading Amari Cooper look dumb because he was a model citizen. And it makes trading Khalil Mack look mindless, although I softly defended the trade last year. The bottom line is that Mack is a gameplan-wrecker who can impact a game by himself. Remember what I said before about elite receivers? By the way, Brown is 30 years old. Beckham is only 26.

Le’veon Bell (and other moves by the Jets): The Steelers ridded themself of another headache by refraining from using the franchise tag on RB Le’veon Bell and letting him become a free agent. Bell held out all of last season due to the frustration of being overused and not being rewarded with a long term deal. It was a bold decision since he missed out on the franchise tag money, but the astronomical 406 touches he had the year before made his position understandable. The Jets got him for $52.5 million over four years, with $35 million guaranteed. Bell did not exactly reset the running back market like he had hoped, but the guarantee was significantly more than the five year deal he turn down from the Steelers. Bell’s contract is a bargain theoretically, since his initial demands were way more. With that said, he’s the second highest paid back in the league, and he has not played for a year. He is allegedly in great shape, but we will see.

Bell may not be a sure thing, but the Jets made plenty of noise this offseason. New coaching staff, new uniforms, new players. GM Mike Maccagnan is entering what could be his last year if things do not change, so he clearly swung for the fences. Outside of Bell, they made a few big splashes on defense. C.J. Mosley signed for five years, $85 million ($51 mil guaranteed). Mosley was a beast in Baltimore, racking up 388 tackles and four Pro Bowls in five years. Baltimore had the top defense in the league last season, so this is a huge upgrade at a position that made strides after signing Avery Williamson a year ago. Star inside linebackers are less bountiful than outside pass rushers, so that is likely the justification for the exorbitant contract.

Jamison Crowder is a nice addition at receiver, rounding out a position group which should have good depth. They also acquired former All-Pro guard Kelechi Osemele from the Raiders via trade, a move that went under the radar. The Jets still have some needs, most likely to be addressed in the draft. They are very thin at cornerback and center. They still need a pass rusher as well, complicated by Anthony Barr agreeing to come there and then changing his mind. Although the team is not perfect, this should be an exciting year. Assuming Darnold improves and these changes work out, this could be the start of a legitimate rebuild.

Super Bowl LIII Prediction

Another NFL season is coming to an end, so I’m bracing for a somber upcoming eight months. I had not been contemplating what to write about next since the NBA is borderline unwatchable, but I’ll figure something out. Anyway, controversy aside, the Super Bowl matchup is set between the Patriots and Rams. I had a feeling the Pats would be back despite looking human much of the year. The Rams were one of the two best teams in the NFC, so they have been pretty consistent all season. This game will be the classic matchup between old and new. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have been together since 2000, while Jared Goff and Sean McVay are in their third and second seasons respectively. Goff and McVay are a combined age of 57, nine years younger than Belichick. McVay has set the NFL on fire since being hired in 2017. He came up through the Mike Shanahan tree in Washington, and coached alongside Kyle Shanahan and newly hired Packers coach Matt LaFleur. Although he is mature beyond his years, this will be the most pressure he’s ever faced. New England is a slight betting favorite, due to the fact they are playing their best ball in the playoffs. When a team with this much experience gets hot, they can be scary. Their commitment to the run has been crucial, as it has allowed them to dominate time of possession and be very effective in the play action game. Rob Gronkowski has continued to be an asset due to his outstanding blocking, and last week he showed he can still catch the ball. They have enough talent to effectively run a game plan, even if no one is a star on their own. Belichick recruits guys who want to be coached meticulously, allowing for this level of discipline. Although I believe New England’s defense will play well, I haven’t gotten their performance in the last Super Bowl out of my mind. They were shredded by Nick Foles and the Eagles, allowing 538 yards (the Pats had 613 themselves). This is why my gut says it will be a high scoring game, but the Rams are the team more likely to be slowed down. Goff doesn’t exactly pass the eye test, but his two year improvement from his rookie campaign is undeniable. He showed mental toughness by surviving the Jeff Fisher era and fans calling him a bust. With that said, the Rams offense is hard to figure out. Many say it’s extremely innovative, others say it’s all based on pre-play confusion. Todd Gurley was a superstar all year, but he has essentially been benched for C.J. Anderson the last few games. Goff may be the most non-descript #1 overall picked QB ever. All of these factors make a one game outcome hard to predict, but that does not mean they cannot put it all together. The Rams receivers will have to step up to make everyone else’s job easier. This will be a tall task, since the injured Cooper Kupp was their only true slot guy. The x-factor for this game is the Rams defense. Brady will get the ball out quickly as always, so Aaron Donald and company will not get a bunch of sacks most likely. But if the secondary can keep Brady’s receivers from getting open, that could play right into their hands. I would say this was impossible if Aqib Talib was still injured. His presence will be huge, considering he’s still an elite man coverage corner at the advanced age of 32. The Rams need to make sure they stop the run, which has been a struggle for them. They allowed 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, last in the NFL. If Sony Michel gets going, the Pats will have their wish of being able to control the clock. Let’s keep it real, both teams will score plenty of points. The outcome is usually decided by who makes the critical stops late. If experience is a factor, advantage Pats. The underdog narrative being pushed by Brady and the team seems ridiculous, but it may actually help. Despite the fact they always run roughshod over the AFC, it has not been a given they will win the big game as of late. Maybe a slight amount of extra motivation breeds a more precise focus. I may be reading the tea leaves too deeply, but this Patriots team has a different vibe going in to the Super Bowl than they did last year. Unless Jared Goff channels his idol Joe Montana, the Rams will fall just short. Todd Gurley will at the bare minimum be rusty, whether his lack of use is due to injury or otherwise. I doubt C.J. Anderson can carry them to victory against a superior defensive mind. Patriots win 42-37.

NFL Wildcard Round

The NFL Wild Card round is now over, with some teams moving in and others going home. “Defense wins championships” may be the oldest football cliche ever, but we saw why this weekend. The teams who played more physical won for the most part. Another cliche is “it’s better to be lucky than good”. Just ask the Eagles.

Colts over Texans 21-7:

Ever since the Colts won two straight after their 1-5 start, I have been calling them my dark horse team. They came to play Saturday evening, while Houston was sleepwalking at home. Indy jumped out to a 14-0 start in the first few minutes and they never looked back. Marlon Mack had a huge game, finishing with 148 rushing yards. TY Hilton had another big game, something he is accustomed to against Houston throughout his career. Deshaun Watson and the Texans looked out of rhythm all game. Indy constantly had a linebacker dropping back to double cover DeAndre Hopkins, leaving openings in the middle of the field. Outside of hitting Keke Coutee on the occasional drag route, he couldn’t make big plays. He overthrew Ryan Griffin on a sure TD, and he missed an opportunity to score after leading a long drive into his red zone. Let’s be real, the Texans have a long history of crumbling in the playoffs. Indy looked more prepared, and they won because of it.

Cowboys over Seahawks 24-22:

This was quite an interesting matchup, considering the strategic similarities the two teams share. Both teams have mobile quarterbacks, stout running games, and attacking defenses. The game came down to which offense would get hot first after both defenses dominated in the first half, which ended up being the Cowboys. Pete Carroll has used supreme scheming to develop an elite running game this year despite an awful o-line, including using an extra tackle in George Fant. This worked for several weeks, but Dallas’ defense may have been a step up in competition. Dak Prescott is no superstar, but he did just enough to win as usual. His ability to run late was critical in closing out the game, and he played big in the big moments. Dallas was better equipped to play smash mouth football. Ezekiel Elliott is the best running back in the league, while Chris Carson is only above average. Dallas’ o-line, albeit banged up, is light years ahead of Seattle’s. Although Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett are very good receivers, Amari Cooper has big play burst that neither of them have. This included a big reception in the fourth quarter which led to Dallas taking the lead. The Seahawks stalled out on offense, and losing Sebastian Janikowski certainly hindered their ability to kick. His backup was rugby style punter Michael Dickson, who has little experience kicking a ball traditionally. Seattle opted against attempting a 57 yard field at the end of the half for this reason. The Cowboys go as Zeke goes, and Saturday was no different. He only had 26 yards in the first quarter, but he got going after that. He had a 44-yard run before halftime which set Dallas up for their lone first half touchdown. He finished with 137 yards on 26 carries. His big performance in the second half is a big reason why Dallas was able to take control.

Chargers over Ravens 23-17:

This game was not as close as the score may indicate, as the Chargers completely dominated the Ravens Sunday. Baltimore has been winning games with their defense, but the Chargers o-line won the battle up front and neutralized the Ravens pass rush. Philip Rivers went 22-32 for 160 yards. He didn’t have any TDs or picks, and he was sacked once. The Ravens looked lost on offense all game, highlighted by Lamar Jackson fumbling the ball twice on his first two drives. I knew he was in trouble after the first one. His youthful inexperience showed, and Baltimore did not have an emergency option in case he struggled. Many have suggested he should have been pulled for veteran Super Bowl champ Joe Flacco. I think that would have been disastrous, considering Flacco has not played since week nine and the offensive scheme is totally foreign to him. Playing RG3 may have been a better option, but he was not dressed. Jackson actually played well late, scoring 14 of the team’s 17 points in the fourth quarter. But he only had three completions and three first downs previously. The Chargers defense looked like the best unit on the field Saturday, constantly putting pressure on Jackson. They limited his ability to escape the pocket, and sacked him a whopping seven times. DT Justin Jones, who was replacing Brandon Mebane, did a great job of setting the tone. Melvin Ingram III was awesome at stuffing the run as well. These factors took away all of Jackson’s weapons, and he didn’t look comfortable until it was far too late. Chargers d-lineman Damion Square claimed the team knew exactly what to expect from Baltimore. That certainly appears to be the case. The Chargers came out with seven defensive backs, deciding to match Jackson’s speed. This is an atypical look against Baltimore, possibly explaining why Jackson looked so confused. This is the first time Jackson faced a team more than once in his career. He took over halfway through the season, after Baltimore played each divisional opponent the first time. Jackson looked far better when they recently beat LA in week. The Chargers clearly made the proper adjustment, a credit to DC Gus Bradley. Bradley was DC for Seattle during the height of their success, and his defenses looked good during his stint as the Jaguars’ head coach. Outside of a late run, the Chargers totally shut Baltimore down. Also, do replay reviews have to take so long? Ugh. Waiting for the game to end was like watching paint dry.

Eagles over Bears 16-15:

Uh-oh, could this be the start of another magical Nick Foles run? This game was an even matchup throughout, but it ended with ex-Eagle Cody Parkey missing a kick that hit the upright and the crossbar. To add insult to injury, he made the same kick just before Doug Pederson calling the icing timeout. Parkey has struggled all year, including a week 10 game against Detroit where he hit the upright four times. Like the rest of the games this weekend, this was a defensive struggle as well. Everyone expected a stingy performance by Chicago’s top notch defense, but the Eagles d stepped up and matched their intensity. Mitchell Trubisky played better than I anticipated, and he made a few spectacular throws. But much like the Chargers did to Lamar Jackson, Philly kept Trubisky in the pocket. Despite Trubisky’s performance, the lack of skill position threats were evident. Coach Nagy has been innovative all year in terms of exotic playcalling, using well timed sweep plays, and utilizing speedster Tarik Cohen. Nagy ran a more conventional offense Sunday, and the run game got shut down. This made Trubisky have to win it with his arm, which is more than he is used to. Chicago moved the ball well for the most part, but they came up small on third down and in the red zone. They left a bunch of points on the table, which is why the game came down to a field goal. The x-factor for Philly in this game was Golden Tate, who has only been ordinary since being acquired mid-season. He made a catch while taking a huge hit in the second quarter, and he made the go ahead TD catch on fourth down after running a perfect route. Moving forward, the Eagles are dangerous as long as Foles does not turn the ball over. Could lightning really strike twice?

NFL Week 12

Week 12 of the NFL season is over, and the playoff picture has started to take shape. With the postseason only five weeks away, many games this week had major playoff overtones. Many teams from last years’ postseason are falling apart, forcing me to be a therapist for my two friends who love the Eagles and Vikings. I’ve had to accept the fate of my mediocre 49ers, as many other fanbases are being hit with reality too.

The scores this week were: Bears over Lions 23-16, Cowboys over Redskins 31-23, Saints over Falcons 31-17, Browns over Bengals 35-20, Seahawks over Panthers 30-27, Bucs over 49ers 27-9, Ravens over Raiders 34-17, Eagles over Giants 25-22, Patriots over Jets 27-13, Bills over Jaguars 24-21, Chargers over Cardinals 45-10, Colts over Dolphins 27-24, Broncos over Steelers 24-17, Vikings over Packers 24-17, Texans over Titans 34-17.

Not every game was exciting, but even some of the bad games produces cool storylines. In the Chargers’ 45-10 win over the Cardinals, Phillip Rivers finished with a near flawless stat line of 259 yards and 3 TDs on 28-29 passing. The 8-3 Chargers look primed for a Wildcard spot, and games like this show how dangerous they can be moving forward. Unfortunately Melvin Gordon suffered an MCL sprain, but he could possibly return before the playoffs. Louisville rookie Lamar Jackson made his second start for the Ravens, and he showed all the promise they hoped he would. Although he is still raw as a passer, his athleticism makes him a project worth committing to. He ran for 71 yards, one week after running for 119. His running opened things up for Gus Edwards, who had 118 yards on 23 carries. Jackson is like Colin Kaepernick, who sparked the Niners initially when he became their starter. Baltimore showed more interest in Kaep than most other teams, so maybe they envisioned changing styles then. I also found myself amused that Odell Beckham Jr. missed another drive to get fluids, the fourth time this season he had to do so. Albeit one drive, this is an odd phenomenon that puts his commitment into question. Considering he recently said he dislikes water due to the “squishy” stomach feeling it gives him, it appears the franchise receiver does not understand hydration. The Texans bludgeoned the Titans Monday night, when they took total control after falling behind 10 in the opening minutes.

Thanksgiving was this past week, so fans like me had a full plate Thursday (pun intended). Anyway, the games were interesting sort of, but most have some intrigue now because of the playoffs looming. In the first game, the Bears showed tremendous fight despite unfortunate circumstances. Mitchell Trubisky missed the game with a shoulder injury, and he may miss more. Chicago was forced to start Chase Daniel, who had only made two starts in his nine year career. Daniel had a very impressive stat line (27-37, 230 yards, 3 TDs, 0 picks), considering the situation. Detroit looked stagnant on offense, probably due to rookie sensation Kerryon Johnson’s knee injury. He was carrying the team all year, and now top receiver Marvin Jones is hurt as well. Detroit has some real issues to address moving forward.

Dallas needed a Turkey Day win to stay alive in the playoff hunt, and they responded. Washington looked like they had the fast track to win the NFC East a few weeks ago at 5-2, but the injury to Alex Smith has changed that. Dallas came through, and their newfound offense played a big part. Dak Prescott looked comfortable, and the offense was able to surpass 400 yards. Amari Cooper looked to be worth the first round pick, as he had 180 yards on eight receptions. That’s 22.5 YPC. He may not be the greatest receiver ever in a vacuum, but he is the exact piece Dallas’ offense was missing. Clearly not having a number one like Dez Bryant was problematic, but it looks like Cooper has effectively filled this role. Zeke Elliott ran for 120+ in his third straight week, so recommitting to the run has been working. Washington looked listless on defense, which may also be due to the Smith injury. This team was built around ball control, Smith’s specialty. Without him, the holes in their defense are easier to expose. Dallas won the clock battle by seven minutes, and Colt McCoy threw three picks. Washington lacked in mostly every statistical category. They had 331 total yards to Dallas 404, 80 rushing yards to 146, and was plus three in turnovers. The Skins were once mighty, but they may have fallen evidently.

The night game between the Saints and Falcons was the most lopsided, although it could have been competitive. It started with a head scratcher; Atlanta deferred to the second half after winning the coin toss. The Saints scored a TD on their opening drive, which set the tone the out the gate. Drew Brees only threw for 171 yards, showing how committed to the run the Saints have become. Kamara and Ingram combined for 137 yards, and Taysom Hill even added 13. The Falcons almost played well enough to win, but they came up just short. Fumbles by Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley ultimately cost them. Atlanta lost three fumbles inside the Saints red zone, a recipe for disaster every time. Defensive head coaches are being phased out, and Dan Quinn is one of them. Maybe it’s time for Atlanta to hit the reset button. For the Saints, simplicity works. Fortunately Sean Payton does what’s best for the team, regardless of outside expectations.

In the NFC playoff race, the South and West divisions are all but clinched. The first place teams, the Saints and Rams respectively, are both 10-1. Although all four teams in the NFC North still have a mathematical chance, the Bears have started to separate themselves at 8-3. Aaron Rodgers and the 4-6-1 Packers appear to be done after their loss this week, and Minnesota is unpredictable. The Vikings (6-4-1) still have a legit chance, but it will be a difficult path. The NFC East is basically wide open, sans the Giants, as the three top teams are all within a game of each other.

In the AFC, the fight for the six seed is going to be intense. The Bengals, Ravens, Dolphins, Colts, Titans all were 5-5 entering week 12. Seeds six through eleven (Ravens, Colts, Titans, Bengals, Broncos, Dolphins) all have five or six wins. Indy beat Miami this week, huge considering both teams had the same record. Speaking of the Colts . . .

Andrew Luck made possibly the signature play of his career late Sunday. On 3rd and 9 from their own 43 yard line, Luck evaded a fervent pass rush and threw to a wide open Chester Rogers for 34-yards. Luck kept his eyes downfield the whole time, the sign of a true veteran. He played very well up to that point, and that play sealed the win. Before this drive, Luck threw a TD to Eric Ebron to tie the game. The Colts trailed by 10 late, but Luck willed his team to victory. I told my readers to be scared of Indy when they were 3-5, due to their huge strides running the ball and on defense. They have now won five straight, and Luck had not been sacked for 239 straight passes before this game. Although there were long stretches where the offense was stagnant, they played their best football when it counted. Miami did do a lot of things well in this game. They scored a TD on their opening drive, the first time they’ve done so all year. Asthe game progressed, the Dolphins established their running game. Their one-two punch of Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore took its toll on the Colts’ defense. Gore softened the defense up with his bruising style, opening up lanes for Drake to get big plays. Drake had 96 total yards, and Gore had 67 rushing. Miami should have ultimately won this game, but they disappeared in crunch time. They had two three and outs mid-fourth quarter, which gave Indy enough time for the comeback. Miami severely lost the clock battle late, when all they had to do was get a couple first downs. They obviously have talent, but something is keeping them from making real steps forward. QB maybe?

The Steelers showed signs of life against Denver early, highlighted by a Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster 97-yard TD catch early in the third quarter. As electrifying as this play was, Pittsburgh’s offense went dormant thereafter. They got into the red zone multiple times, but the questionably threw the ball in running situations. Last week against the Jags, Big Ben scored the winning TD after improvising on a pass by running. Their last play this week was an inexplicable goal line pass, where the play fell apart when the hot read was covered. Pittsburgh seemingly should have a better record, but analytics cannot account for poor play calling. Denver got off to a bad start, but they’re clearly trending upward now. They are now 5-6, and have won two straight. The defense is looking like its old self, with Von Miller hitting his stride and rookie Bradley Chubb coming into his own. Undrafted rookie RB Phillip Lindsay had a season high 110 rushing yards. He didn’t have any receiving yards, which has been a part of his previous games. This shows his versatility, which could bode well moving forward.

Vikings-Packers was another game with huge playoff significance, and Minnesota clearly played better. Aaron Rodgers looked healthier that he has the last few weeks, but the ineptitude of the offense continues to be obvious. Coach McCarthy continues to misuse Rodgers and mismanage timeouts, which is why he’s allegedly on the hot seat. Not to mention the egregious muffed punt down 10 in the 4th. Green Bay had multiple delay of games, including a critical one toward the end of the third quarter. It was on third down, so they had to attempt a long pass which ultimately ended in a sack. Rodgers had wide open receiver for a touchdown with two and a half minutes left, but he overthrew him. They kicked a field goal and never touched the ball again. The Packers squandered their last chance at gaining momentum. Kirk Cousins had his best passer rating as a Viking Sunday, going 29-38 for 342 yards and three touchdowns. He outplayed Rodgers and made smart decisions all game. I said early in the year that Cousins is very polished despite his unexciting nature. He heavily targeted his top three receivers in Thielen, Diggs, and Rudolph, completing 85% of his passes to them. Thielen set a team record for most 100-yard games in a season with nine. Minnesota controlled the clock effectively, winning the time of possession battle by nearly ten minutes. They played well in their defensive secondary as well. Rodgers is a superstar, but the team around him does not appear to have much NFL talent. The Vikings are still alive for the wildcard, and I believe they have a real chance if Cousins keeps his play up.

The Browns struck early and often against Cincy, and they never looked back. Baker Mayfield continues to look more comfortable since the coaching change, and he did so out of the gate. He was consistently hitting check downs, which opened up the middle of the field. His decision making was superb. Cleveland scored TDs on their first three drives. The 28 first half points were the most Cleveland scored in a first half since 1991 (I was one year old). Mayfield finished 19-26 with 258 yards and four TDs. Cincy looked out of sorts all game, and their chances all but died when Andy Dalton was injured. The Bengals are now 5-6, so this loss severely hurts their playoff chances. The Browns looked inspired, and they were having fun. From an amazing play fake by Mayfield, to the David Njoku touchdown where the Browns carried him into the endzone, everything went right. This added emotion may have stemmed from ex-coach Hue Jackson’s presence on the Cincinnati sideline. It was awkward considering he was coaching the Browns only a few weeks ago, and he left for a division rival. Damarious Randall gave Jackson the ball after a pick. Mayfield seemed unhappy with the situation, essentially calling Jackson a sellout in his postgame press conference. Jackson should have been a distraction for Cleveland, but it may have been worse for his current team.

Seahawks-Panthers was another early playoff game, and Carolina fell just short. Despite producing a season high 475 yards, they had missed opportunities like a botched 4th and 2 from the five yard line. Considering they lead most of the game, they should have been able to win. Both of Carolina’s top playmakers had huge performances, making the loss more frustrating. Newton was 24-29 with 255 yards and a TD. Christian McCaffrey had a whopping 229 total yards on 27 touches. 
Seattle was not overly, but they found a way to win. Their run game never really got going, but Russell Wilson took control with his ability to make big plays. They strung together a 14 play drive in the 4th, which was aided by a Chris Carson fourth-down conversion. After Carolina broke the tie with a McCaffrey TD, Wilson responded with a big TD pass on 4th and 3 from the Carolina 35 yard line. After Carolina missed the go ahead FG, Wilson hit Tyler Lockett on a 43 yard pass that set them up for the game winning FG. Wilson has shown late game heroics throughout his career, so the outcome is not too surprising. I believe Carolina is the bigger story. They are on the cusp of greatness, but something always seems to hold them back. They need to figure out how to get out of their own way. As for Seattle, this win may have given them the necessary confidence to make a real run down the stretch. They could be a scary matchup in the playoffs. Wilson and crew are former champs after all. . .