NCAA Playoff Semifinals

Happy New Years everybody. The inaugural NCAA Football Playoff is here, meaning the anticipation if almost over. These are my predictions for the two opening games.

#2 Oregon (12-1) vs. #3 Florida State (13-0):

Florida State won the BCS championship against Auburn last year, which was part of their current 29-game winning streak. Quarterback Jameis Winston has been a distraction off the field at times, but his on-field leadership is uncanny. 

He has the coveted clutch gene, seeming to always make the right play at the right time. In the ACC Championship game against Georgia Tech, Winston threw for 309 yards, going 21-of-30 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. WR Rashad Greene had a great year, serving as Winston’s top target. He had 93 receptions for 1306 yards and 7 touchdowns. Their next leading receiver is TE Nick O’Leary (47 receptions, 614 yards), so the one-on-one matchup Greene faces will be key. Oregon’s star CB, senior Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, suffered a severe knee injury in practice a couple weeks ago. Troy Hill will be thrust into his spot. Hill, also a senior, started twelve games and made second-team All-Pac-12. He will not be overwhelmed, but Greene will still have the advantage in this matchup. Regardless, the Seminoles will desperately need production from their other receivers.

The greatest challenge for FSU will be on the defensive side of the ball. Oregon has always been known for explosive offense, and this year has been no different. Quarterback Marcus Mariota had one of the great years in college football history, and it culminated in winning the Heisman in a landslide. He threw 38 touchdowns with only two picks, and he ran for 669 yards. 

Oregon’s running game led the Pac-12 in rushing yards. The system Chip Kelly implemented is still in tact, and it has paid dividends. Their 38-31 victory at Washington State was the only game they won by single digits. The lingering effects from this game bled into the next week when they suffered their one loss to Arizona, but they recovered and won eight straight since. The Ducks’ offensive line is something to pay attention to. They suffered significant injuries to starters Tyler Johnstone, Andre Yruretagoyena, Jake Fisher and Hroniss Grasu. Johnstone has missed the entire season with a torn ACL, but the rest of the line will be healthy against Bama. The Ducks’ have struggled against the pass rush, but they still may succeed Thursday. FSU averaged fewer sacks per game than any team in the ACC. They only have one sack in the last four games. If they do get pressure, they will need help from blitzing safety Jalen Ramsey.

Florida State likes to come from behind, but that will be difficult against Oregon. Once the Ducks take a lead, they rarely relinquish it. The Noles’ best chance is to control the clock with the running game, and the have the running back to do it. Freshman Dalvin Cook got off to a slow start, but he has been playing elite football lately. He ran for 144 and 177 yards in his last two games, against Florida and Georgia Tech respectively. He is averaging 6.4 yards per carry in his last four games. Oregon’s defense is better than usual, but Cook will be a handful.

This game will likely be decided in the first five minutes. Oregon needs to score early to establish themselves, but this is not necessarily the case for FSU. If the Seminoles can play physical ball and keep the score low, they can take Oregon out of their game. I believe the running game and clock control will allow FSU to manage the game. Florida State wins 24-20.

#1 Alabama (12-1) vs. #4 Ohio State (12-1):

Alabama is a nine-point favorite, so it is safe to say they are expected to win. Bama has looked impressive for most of the year, but they have not looked as invincible as they have in the past. They lost at Ole Miss 23-17 on October 4, and struggled in three other games. They only beat Arkansas by one, needed overtime against LSU, and they trailed Auburn by twelve before rallying to win. Defense was their calling card as always. They are tenth in the NCAA in total defense (312.4 ypg), and first in rushing defense (88.69 ypg). The offense took some time to click under new OC Lane Kiffin, but it looks good now. First year starting QB, senior Blake Sims, threw for 3250 yards with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions. 

Junior WR Amari Cooper was a Heisman finalist, tallying 115 receptions, 1656 yards, and 14 touchdowns. Running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry ran for 932 and 895 yards respectively.

For Ohio State to win, they will need to play a perfect game. Buckeye QB Cardale Jones is making his second career start. He was the third string QB to start the season, but got promoted after injuries to Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett. Jones is a 22-year-old senior, so he at least has practice experience. Working with elite quarterbacks coach Tom Herman should help. However, the fact that he's only started one game will make for a tall task against the stout Bama defense. 

His one start came in the team’s last game, a 59-0 blowout against Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Despite the lopsided final score, Jones did not throw much due to the effectiveness of the running game. Ohio State may try to attack the Alabama defense the same way Tennessee did. Vols QB Joshua Dobbs ran for 75 yards on 19 carries, mainly on zone-read plays. Jones is not particularly fast, but he has the size to handle the hits (6’5”, 250). 

Ohio State likes to throw deep, and giving up the deep ball could be the one weakness the Bama defense possesses. OSU WR Devin Smith led the NCAA in yards per catch (26.6) on only 30 receptions. 

The Buckeyes have a slight chance, but everything will have to go right in order for them to win. The game will be close in the first half, but the Tide pulls away in the second. Alabama wins 45-24.

Photos from bleacherreport.com

NFL Championship Game predictions

The regular season is wrapping up, and the playoffs are around the corner. Here are my predictions about what four teams will be playing in the Conference Championship games this year.

Seattle Seahawks:

The Seahawks have returned to championship form after struggling a bit at the beginning of the season. Although they do not blow anyone out, they win through defense and ball control. Their 272.4 ypg allowed is first in the NFL, and their 17 ppg allowed is second. There is no other team in the league who is more complete on defense. They have a physical front seven, and a long secondary. The offense is not stellar, but it is good enough for the way the team is built. Their 361.6 ypg and 24.2 ppg are both eleventh in the league. As long as Russell Wilson can keep handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin, they get the job done.

Their league leading 168.8 rushing ypg is over 20 more than the second-place Jets (147.1). This is the same formula they had last year, a season that ended with a Super Bowl victory. They do not seem as invincible as they were last year, but I still believe they will win the NFC. Green Bay and Dallas are their biggest threats, and Seattle would beat both of them head-to-head.

Dallas Cowboys:

The Dallas Cowboys have looked better than they have in years, and much of it is due to the running game. They average 146.6 rushing ypg, third in the league. They average 377.7 ypg (9^th) and 27.2 ppg (7^th). They put great emphasis on improving the offensive line over the last few years, and it is paying dividends now. QB Tony Romo is having one of his best years, much of which is due to this newfound balance. His 69.3 completion percentage is the second best of his career, and only the third time he cracked 66 percent.

They had talent all along, and it is now coming together. WR Dez Bryant and TE Jason Witten have been the focal point of this team for a while. Their jobs are easier now that the running game has come along. Their defense has been mediocre as usual. They have allowed 359.9 ypg (22^nd) and 23.4 ppg (19^th). Regardless, the offense might be good enough to overcome this. They are the best matchup for Seattle, because their offense can compete with the Seahawk defense.

Indianapolis Colts:

Andrew Luck was one of the most anticipated quarterback prospects ever when he was drafted in 2012, and he has lived up to all expectations. He leads the league in passing yards (4492) and touchdowns (38). His intelligence and physical versatility makes him able to always make proper adjustments, and to make correct reads. The Colts’ 421.4 total ypg is third in the NFL. Although the running game is not great, Luck is smart enough to call runs at the right time.

They have a lethal WR tandem, featuring the up comer T.Y. Hilton and the veteran Reggie Wayne. Their defense has been decent, but that should still be enough in the AFC. Their 22.6 points allowed per game is sixteenth in the NFL, and their 351 yards allowed per game is fifteenth. Their defensive 3^rd down percentage is tied for first in the league (33%). They will be forced to win high scoring games, which usually concerns me. This team, however, seems unafraid of any challengers. There are not any super teams in the league, and this one has the team of destiny feel more than anyone else.

Denver Broncos:

Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game, but his postseason struggles are too evident to ignore now. The embarrassing performance in last year’s Super Bowl against Seattle was gut wrenching, but it also forced the team to tweak its identity. Unsurprisingly, Manning’s stats are stellar again. His 4143 yards and 37 touchdowns are both second in the league, second to Andrew Luck.

The team is averaging 400.7 total ypg (4^th) and 29.1 ppg (1^st). The defense is much improved, and much more physical. Last year, the Broncos were 22^nd in ppg allowed, and 19^th in yards allowed. This year they have allowed 309.4 ypg (4^th), 21.6 ppg (16^th). They will be back in the AFC title game, because I think New England will fall short again.


Photos from bleacherreport.com

Thunderstruck

Sometimes in sports, certain teams cannot reach their full potential despite having enough talent. No team has exemplified this more over the last several years than the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC has the ability to win most one-on-one matchups, but it tends to become a crutch far too often. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are both top five players in the league, but they struggle to get other players involved. Of the 6782 shot attempts by OKC last year, 2479 were by Durant/Westbrook (Westbrook only played 46 games). 

Playing this system also makes low post play insignificant. Serge Ibaka has star talent, but he is being misused. 65% of his shots were jumpers last year. This is way up from the 56% in 2011-12, and the 46% of his rookie season in 2009-10. He attempted a total of six three pointers in his first three years, and 117 in his next two. He has already attempted 72 threes in 18 games this year, which is insane considering that he shot 60 in 81 games last year. He has been gradually moving away from the hoop. This is necessary in the team’s system because slashers like Durant and Westbrook need floor stretchers to pull opposing big men out of the lane. But without a legitimate offensive center on the team, the team has no inside presence whatsoever. 72% of their shots last year were jumpers last year. Ibaka’s 15.2 ppg and 7.6 rpg look nice, but the way he is getting points is alarming. Their top five scoring big men last year outside of Ibaka (Perkins, Nick Collison, Adams, Perry Jones, Hasheem Thabeet) only averaged a total of 15.6 points per game last year. Kendrick Perkins was supposed to be what Andrew Bogut has become for the Warriors, but he is not quite athletic enough to be relevant offensively. He averages 20.2 minutes per game, almost all of which comes with the second unit. He only attempts 3.8 shots per game.

Durant, Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka make a formidable big three, but they do not fit together in a championship fashion. It is always difficult to put a big three together when one of your stars is a ball dominant point guard. When the Celtics assembled their super team in 2008, Rajon Rondo was the perfect guy to run it because he would much rather passes than shoot. With the Heat’s big three, neither Wade nor LeBron were official point guards despite handling the ball often. The 24-second shot clock means that decisions must be made quickly, and a ball dominant PG is more likely to always look for his shot first. This can throw off the rhythm of an offense, especially when the PG is not even the best scorer on the team. The defending champion San Antonio Spurs are extremely active passing the ball, which catches defenses off guard when done effectively. As seen in the finals last year, they make up for lack of explosive athleticism by always finding the best shot. They can hit midrange shots, three pointers, slash, and work the low post. Being able to attack in different ways allows for a system to still be effective when the star players are limited or out. This is great conceptually, but the Thunder cannot become that balanced overnight. The Spurs became what they are by establishing a system and adding guys who contribute more than scoring over many years. OKC was 26th in passes per game last year, and 15th in points generated by assists (51.2). They are worse this year so far. Reggie Jackson has been largely responsible for the lack of ball movement. He was leading the league in time of possession before Westbrook came back. It got to a point where Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins would stop passing him the ball after rebounds and take the ball up the court themselves. This type of play will obviously be tamed with the return of Westbrook, but it appears that Jackson’s basketball IQ has taken a step back. This is a problem, considering that he is the team’s most important bench player. 

Over the offseason, Coach Scott Brooks did state that ball movement would become more of a priority. Kevin Durant just returned, so it is still too early to judge how good this team will be by the end of the year.

They, however, will be plagued either by injuries or cold shooting in the playoffs. They are not built for a long playoff run, and I foresee regular season wins serving as fool’s gold for keeping Brooks. Brooks is not a bad coach, and he has done a great job maximizing the talent of his team. The way the team is structured is greatly flawed, however. This falls on the coach and GM. They do not have a system that can be run by their role players. Without the rest of the team being engaged, it has just become Durant and Westbrook playing hero ball. The Thunder are really fun to watch, but they will never win a title as currently constituted.



Photos from bleacherreport.com