The NFL Conference Championships are here, and four teams
are looking to punch their tickets to the Super Bowl XLIX in Arizona. Here is
my analysis and predictions.
Green Bay Packers
(12-4) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4):
The
NFC Championship Game will feature the ultimate battle of offense versus
defense. Green Bay is sixth in total offense, and Seattle is first in total
defense. Aaron Rodgers had a great game against Dallas, which was magnified by
the calf injury he was battling.
He was visibly hobbled, evident by the fact
that he chose not to run in situations where he would normally do so. Although
I believe he is the best quarterback in football, the physicality of Seattle’s
defense will be too much to handle. He should be a little healthier, but the
calf will likely not be 100%. Rodgers infamously refused to throw at Seattle’s
top cornerback in week 1 (a 36-16 loss), but he has said he will not do the
same this week. Rodgers will have to be perfect to best Seattle’s stellar
secondary, as well as their front seven led by Michael Bennett, Bruce Irvin,
and Cliff Avril. Safety Kam Chancellor has been playing like the best defensive
player in the league as of late.
In the opener
against Seattle, Packer RB Eddie Lacy only ran for 34 yards on 12 carries.
Since week 12, however, Lacy has run for at least 98 yards in every game except
one. He struggled in general early in the season, but he has been playing
exceptionally well lately. He will be the x-factor in this game for Green Bay.
If they cannot run the ball effectively, the have no chance against the
defending champs.
Seattle’s
offense racked up 398 yards in the opener, but they also had Percy Harvin at
the time. Harvin had 11 touches for 100 yards.
Seattle’s 375.8 ypg are ninth in the league, which can be attributed to their
running game. Their 203.1 pass ypg is 27th in the league, but their
172.6 rushing ypg is first. Their 24.6 points per game are tenth in the NFL.
Although their offense is not stellar, it is a great complement to the defense.
They are third in the league in time of possession, meaning that they can
effectively control the clock. Russell Wilson does not throw much, but he
throws when necessary. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and Luke Willson have
been integral to the passing game. RB Marshawn Lynch had another great year,
finishing fourth in the league with 1306 rushing yards (81.6 ypg).
The Packers’ run defense was ranked a subpar 20th.
Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray ran for 123 yards on 25 carries (4.9 ypc) against
Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Their run defense went from 24th
to 20th after switching Clay Matthews from outside linebacker to
inside linebacker. The Packers have also notably struggled against the
zone-read, which is a huge part of Seattle’s offense.
Green Bay looked impressive against Dallas, but Seattle is on an
entirely different level. The fact that the game is in Seattle will make it
almost impossible for the Packers. The game will be relatively low scoring, but
Seattle will maintain a two score lead for most of the game. Seattle will not
run away with it, but Green Bay will never really have a chance. Seattle wins 31-21.
Indianapolis Colts
(11-5) at New England Patriots (12-4):
If
you are a fan of quarterback play, then the AFC Championship Game should be a
thriller. Tom Brady is coming to the end of a Hall of Fame, career, and Andrew
Luck is at the beginning of one. The Patriots came back from 14-point deficits
twice to beat the Ravens 35-31. The Pats
beat the Colts 42-20 week 11 in Indianapolis. Brady is 3-0 against Andrew Luck. Each Patriot win was by at least 21, and Luck has thrown six touchdowns and eight picks in those
games. In
Week 11, Patriots running back Jonas Gray ran for 201 yards and four touchdowns
of 37 carries. Gray did not play against the Ravens, and the Patriots only had
14 rushing yards on 13 carries.
Brady played very well, completing
66 percent of his passes for 367 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
The fact that this game is in Foxborough is huge for the Pats. Brady has thrown
for 19 touchdowns and three interceptions at home. New England’s only home loss
came in the last week of the season, when the team had already clinched the
No.1 seed in the playoffs. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski finished with seven catches for
108 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore. Whether or not the Colts can cover
him will be huge.
Luck has become one of the best quarterbacks in football since being the #1 overall pick in 2012. In the regular season, he threw for 4,671 yards and led the league with 40 touchdowns. The Colts scored 28.6 points per game this season with Luck at the helm.
Although they won their last two games, the Colts’
offense did not look overly impressive. In their last six games, they have
failed to crack 27 points. In those games, Luck cracked 300-yards passing only
once. Even in the playoff win over the Denver, Luck threw two picks. Luck is
great, but he could use some help from the running game. The Colts’ 100.8
rushing ypg is 22nd in the league. As fantastic as Luck is, he is
asked to do more than any other quarterback in the league. RB Dan Herron has
looked good lately, but it is hard to predict what he will do game-to-game. The
Colts clearly are not comfortable running the ball, since Luck throws the ball
often in running situations.
Indy’s defense stopped Denver’s second ranked scoring offense,
despite a mere ranking of 19th in the regular season. Peyton Manning only threw
for 211 passing yards on 46 attempts. It was revealed that Manning was playing
with a lingering quad injury, so the outcome may have been skewed. All five of
Indianapolis’ regular season losses came against top seven scoring offenses,
including New England. The Colts allowed an average of 39.2 points per game in
those losses.
Indy impressed the football world when they upset Denver, but this
game will be different. The Patriots have the advantage in coaching and
experience, which will be the difference. The game will be close, but the Pats
will prevail. New England wins 42-35.
Photos from bleacherreport.com
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