Is the NFL Combine Overemphasized?

The NFL Draft is still a couple months away, but the NFL Combine is in full swing. The combine is where players have their athleticism measured through a series of workouts. Instead of writing anything about the data coming out of the combine, I chose to tear down the concept in general. Film study used to be the most valued tool in prospect scouting, but guys with stopwatches have taken over. Good teams know better. Constantly changing personnel among some teams, however, can force teams to hire inexperienced decision makers. The combine makes scouts giddy, but hopefully the trend shifts soon.

A prime example of why the combine is overstated is current Minnesota Vikings starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. In the combine last year, he opted not to participate in the 40-yard dash or the throwing drills. It is unknown why he took this risk, but his absence from these drills turned a lot of teams off. What made matters worse is that he had a horrible pro day as well beforehand. Bridgewater had been considered the top quarterback prospect entering his last year at Louisville. He was said to have great leadership qualities and very high football I.Q., but his stock started to nosedive after the season when scouts started analyzing his workouts. He fell all the way Minnesota at 32; ten picks after the Cleveland Browns selected Johnny Manziel. While Bridgewater had a solid season and began to establish himself as a leader, Manziel’s rookie season was marred by disappointment and alcohol abuse. Anyone with a brain should have known Bridgewater was a better prospect than Manziel all along.

The most noteworthy precautionary tale of falling in love with combine performance is former Eagles defensive end Mike Mamula, the seventh overall pick in the 1995 draft. He played college ball at Boston College, and recorded 13 sacks as a senior. Going into the draft, he was projected as a third round pick due to lack of size and athleticism. Realizing this, Mamula specifically worked on workouts that he would see in the combine. He practiced workouts such as the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and bench press. Having practiced these specific drills numerous times, he had an all-time great combine. He recorded a stellar 4.58 time in the 40-yard dash, he lifted 225 pounds 28 times, and his vertical jump was 38.5 inches. His draft stock skyrocketed, and he was picked seventh (the Eagles traded up from twelfth). He was picked before Hall of Famer Warren Sapp. Mamula had a decent five-year career, but he did not come close to justifying such a high selection.

The combine does serve a purpose, but certain exercises should be position-specific. A lineman should not have to run the 40. A defensive back should not have to do the bench press. A quarterback should be allowed to run the 40 if speed is part of his game, but it should not be a requirement. I personally would allow prospects to choose which workouts they want to do. In the end of the day, the combine has become a crutch for teams who are unaware of how to build properly. Film study will always be the most important tool in evaluating talent. I care much more about how my middle linebacker sees the field and takes angles, rather than how fast his 40 is. Every year teams draft fast receivers and defensive backs that do not understand the game. Film allows one to study player’s instincts on the field, and how a player can be incorporated into a system.

The fact that Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston is still slated to go number one to Tampa Bay implies a change in thought, since Winston looked terrible in the drills. His high football I.Q. is coming across in interviews, which is keeping his stock high. The Bucs’ love affair with Winston could also be due to the appeal of selling a home state kid, much like Jacksonville drafting Blake Bortles from UCF third last year. The combine is overhyped because of the media coverage it gets. It is shown all over NFL Network for hours on end, a stark contrast to a short time ago where it got no media coverage. The draft being pushed back a month was clearly meant to draw more eyes. The combine gets shown on television to boost ratings, but teams are putting too much stock into who has better numbers. Certain GM’s are starting to get away from this analytics-centric way of thinking. If a slew of great players who are not top end athletes come along, then every team will change their thought process. Like I said before, the tape does not lie.