NBA Playoffs

Courtesy of Inner-City Newspaper

I.

The second round of the playoffs have not lived up to the first round. As of Wednesday, May 14, 2014, the Heat and Spurs have 3-1 leads over Brooklyn and Portland. Assuming those series end as expected, I will focus on the other two series.

LA Clippers vs OKC Thunder (Thunder leads 3-2)

This has felt like the most evenly matched series in the second round. Both teams are clearly flawed, but neither one necessarily seems worse than the other. The first two games were blowouts on both sides, and the last two featured riveting comebacks by each team. LA erased a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter of game 4, and OKC came back for 13 down in the final 3:30 to win game 5. The controversial possession call gave OKC the ball when Reggie Jackson clearly touched it last, but a foul should have been called on Chris Paul anyway. The Thunder has one of the most potent offenses in the league when Durant and Westbrook are clicking, but they do not seem to have a cohesive system. This is a problem because it is close to impossible for this team to make late game adjustments if their big two are struggling. Durant and Westbrook are first and third in playoff scoring, but the top two in turnovers. (8.4 per game) Westbrook scored 38 in game 5, but Durant only went 6-22. Instead of Coach Scott Brooks making adjustments, he just lets Westbrook continue to shoot. For the last three years I have been saying that Brooks was not the right coach for this team, and that appears true now. OKC needs a low post offensive presence, just like they have for years. Serge Ibaka is becoming a perimeter shooter, and Kendrick Perkins has no offensive game now despite being the default big lineup center. Durant has no post up game even though he is 6’10”, which is why shorter defenders can guard him. 6’4” Tony Allen defended Durant well in the Memphis series, and 6’0” Chris Paul shut him down during the Clipper comeback in game 4. I still think OKC will win this series because of their ability to heat up quickly, but I do not think they can get past the Spurs. They need to rethink their overall philosophy moving forward, and the first step is a coaching change.

Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers (Indiana leads 3-2)

This has been a very odd series due to the inconsistent play of both teams. The Wizards have the skill advantage because of their superior backcourt, but the Pacers have the superstar advantage in Paul George. George has been able to take over games, while John Wall has been struggling. The Pacers are lethal when Roy Hibbert shows up, but that is hard to count on. The entire Pacer roster is full of headaches like Hibbert, Lance Stephenson, George Hill, and Paul George on his off-nights. David West is known as one of the biggest hotheads in the league, and yet he has been forced into a leadership role solely due to his experience. This is still an immature team, and having a young coach in Frank Vogel compounds the problem. Three of the five games were close, but the bad games for Indy were than the ones for Washington. Hibbert had a zero point, zero rebound in game 1, the second time this happened to him in the playoffs. The fact that a 7’2” center can get no rebounds is unthinkable, but he scored 28 in game 2. He seems to play based on how he feels that day. This inconsistency makes George’s job that much more important, meaning that going 4-17 like in game 1 will not be enough. Washington has a better overall starting five, considering than their frontline of Marcin Gortat and Nene can compete with Indy. They spread the scoring around exceptionally well. I want to predict that the Wizards will win the series because of guard play, but I felt all year that their bench would be their downfall. Picking up Andre Miller midseason added some much needed veteran leadership. Despite their flaws, I think Indy will figure out a way to outlast the Wizards. But losing game 5 by and being outrebounded by 39 is troubling moving forward.

II.

The NBA conference finals are underway, and they have been interesting thus far. As of May 21, the Heat and Pacers are tied 1-1, and The Spurs lead the Thunder 1-0. Here is my take on the two series:

Heat vs Pacers

I fully expected the Heat to win game 2 after their dismal performance in game 1, but the Pacers made it closer than I thought. LeBron James did not play well for most of the game, but he took over in the fourth. The Pacers should have closed the Heat out earlier since the game was so low scoring. Indiana had a chance to win in the last few minutes, but they succumbed to turnovers as usual. Lance Stephenson had a huge 10-point third quarter, and looked like the best player on the floor. His fourth quarter was lackluster, however. He was not as aggressive, which could be due to picking up two early fouls in the quarter. Indiana has a significant size advantage over Miami, but they did not exploit it as much as they should have. Indy runs their offense from the high post through David West, but this keeps him away from the basket and makes him a jump shooter. Roy Hibbert is often the only true low post scorer. He can dominate for stretches, but he clearly has cold stretches. Their guards and wings, like Paul George and George Hill need to shoot fewer jumpers and feed the ball into the low post more. I have been saying for a while that Paul George is a liability when he is handling the ball because he turns it over too much. That was evident Tuesday, especially late. Stephenson should handle the ball more because of his playmaking abilities. The Heat got they typical great performance out of James, but Dwyane Wade showed just how good he could be. He scored 23 points on an efficient 10-of-16 shooting. Miami got key contributions from their role players. This means the guard-play of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole, The perimeter shooting of Ray Allen and Shane Battier, and the energy and low post passing of Birdman. Unlike the Thunder, the Heat get multiple role players involved despite having what is usually the two most talented players in a game. Miami went on a 13-2 run in the fourth to win the game, which was all because of their experience. James and Wade alone outscored the Pacers in the fourth quarter. The Pacers will win two more because of their size, but the Heat are better. Miami wins in seven.

Spurs vs Thunder

I am writing this before game 2, but I believe the Spurs are simply a better team than the Thunder. I have been critical of Coach Brooks’ overall philosophy for a long time, and the Serge Ibaka injury exacerbates the situation. Ibaka is no longer the low post scorer this team desperately needs, but he had excelled as a defender. He kept Blake Griffin under control against the Clippers. Without him, the Thunder has no size to speak of. People constantly underrate the Spurs every year because of their age, but a widespread acknowledgement of Gregg Popovich’s genius is necessary. He is the best coach in basketball because he knows how to teach fundamentals, manage lineups, and get key contributions from everybody on the roster. This series comes down to the matchup between the coaches, and Brooks is not in the same class as Pop. The Spurs have no problem letting Durant and Westbrook shoot as much as they want, because they can score at will on the other end. Kawhi Leonard had always been a great defender, but his offensive game has come along. He is averaging 14.2 ppg in the playoffs. Tony Parker will get to the rim whenever he wants, another ramification of the Ibaka injury. I personally do not think OKC can figure out a way to win from a schematic standpoint. Durant and Westbrook will score at will, but two guys cannot win a title. Spurs win in 5.