NBA Finals 2014

Courtesy of Inner-City Newspaper

The Finals are here, and hopefully they are better than the Conference Finals. The Heat took care of Indiana pretty easily, while the Spurs eventually emerged over the Thunder in the ultimate see-saw series. LeBron James now has a long history against Tim Duncan and the Spurs, facing them in the Finals for the third time. This is a rematch of the Finals from last year, which was one of the most entertaining in recent memory. This year will not be as close, however.

The Heat have two ball dominant players like OKC, but they do not solely rely on them. The Thunder won a lot of games based on the talent of Durant and Westbrook, but the role players usually became non-existent. The Heat gets contributions from their role players, even if they do not appear on the stat sheet. It may be a drive by Mario Chalmers or Norris Cole, a screen by Birdman or Udonis Haslem, or a 3-point shot by Battier or Allen. Everyone touches the ball, making them tough to defend. 

Kawhi Leonard is going to make the difference in how much of a chance the Spurs have to win. Leonard is averaging 13.3 ppg in the playoffs, which is a huge improvement over recent years. Despite his newfound offense, Leonard’s defensive prowess is why he will likely have to guard LeBron James most of the time. This will make it hard for Leonard to have energy on both sides of the court. He offense is paramount because of how much the Spurs need Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili offensively. Parker is not 100% physically, and Ginobili disappeared in the Finals last year. Chris Bosh is averaging an impressive 15.2 ppg and has a better 3-point % than LeBron in the playoffs, but he can disappear during stretches of games. Due to the system Spurs coach Gregg Popovich runs, the scoring gets spread around evenly. No one averages more than 20 ppg, but Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Leonard, and Boris Diaw are all averaging double-digits. Their next four scorers are Danny Green (9.3), Tiago Splitter (7.9), Patty Mills (6.5), and Marco Belinelli (5.7). 

I felt all along that if this rematch happened, it would come down to who was healthier between Parker and Dwyane Wade. The answer still remains to be seen, but Wade appears to have the edge. He has been playing stellar basketball in these playoffs, so it will be interesting to see how much he has left in the tank. San Antonio has the clear size advantage, averaging almost 10 more rebounds per game than Miami. But Miami has the ability to do what hurt the Spurs most against OKC, which is getting out in transition. The Spurs age will show late in the series.

There is a reason teams do not three-peat. There is a reason teams do not appear in the finals four straight years. The physical tolls these playoff runs take are unbearable, and the Heat is basically the same team they were in 2011. Coach Erik Spoelstra wisely managed Wade’s minutes during the regular season, although doing so may have cost them the one-seed. It is paying dividends now, because Wade is the reason they are here. Rashard Lewis has emerged as an important defender for Miami, despite being an afterthought the last two years. The real key to this series is what I mentioned before: transition points. The Spurs overcame this against the Thunder because they knew they would eventually be able to coax Durant and Westbrook into making mistakes. The Heat will not make these mistakes because their stars are champions, and their role players can pick up the slack. The Spurs came so close last year because Wade did not play well. LeBron seems to be more focused than ever, possibly because this team can become a dynasty if they win. Everyone knows what to expect from LeBron, so the success of the Heat depends on everyone else. When Wade is clicking, they are impossible to stop. Although common sense says the Heat should be exhausted, I am picking them. Miami wins in 6.

Photos courtesy of bleacherreport.com