2014 World Series

Game 1 of the World Series ended in a 7-1 Giants blowout. This may lead people to think the Giants will run away with the series, but this is not necessarily true. I am writing this after game 1, so the series may be close to over when this article comes out.

The outcome of game 1 was not surprising due to the starting pitchers. Giants SP Madison Bumgarner has been one of the hottest pitches in baseball. Bumgarner retired 13 of his final 14 batters en route to a game 1 victory. He also extended his road playoff shutout streak to 32 2/3 innings until Royals C Salvador Perez homered in the seventh. Royals’ starter James Shields has struggled in past playoffs, despite his “Big Game James” nickname. He won Game 2 of the 2008 World Series against Philadelphia, throwing 5 2/3 scoreless innings. His next two playoff starts were awful however. In 2010 and 2011, he allowed a total of 11 runs in 9 1/3 innings. In his six previous postseason starts with Tampa Bay, his ERA was a subpar 4.98. It is unsurprising that San Francisco would win that game big, but Kansas City will make the rest of the series a fight. The two teams have similar styles, which is why intangibles like experience will likely make a difference.

In game 2, the Royals will send 23 year-old pitcher Yordano Ventura to the mound to face veteran Jake Peavy. Ventura made a name for himself against the Angels in the ALDS, when he allowed only five hits and one walk in seven innings. He left Game 2 of the ALCS against Baltimore with shoulder tightness, his velocity clearly lacking. KC was blown out in game 1, so manager Ned Yost was able to preserve his top relievers (Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Greg Holland). Thursday is a travel day, so those guys will not be held back in game 2. This bodes well for KC, since their bullpen has been their strength all year. Herrera, Davis and Holland all had an ERA of less than 1.50 in at least 65 appearances. No team had ever featured two relievers with sub-1.50 ERAs in 60 appearances or more. KC went 65-5 when leading after six innings, 72-1 when leading after seven, and 79-1 when leading after eight. In a total 134.1 innings pitched since June 27, they have thrown 2,067 pitches without allowing a homer. This is positive for KC, because the Giants do not possess great power. Although the Royals’ 95 home runs were dead last in the majors during the regular season, the Giants’ 132 were 17^th.

The Giants have had their own share of bullpen success as well. Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt, and Javier Lopez have all been with the team since their first World Series run in 2010, and they have anchored a bullpen since then. In three postseasons, the Giants’ bullpen has gone 11-2 with a 2.40 ERA, a .182 batting average allowed, 126 strikeouts, 37 walks and 11 homers allowed. They have done a fantastic job of replacing 2010 star, closer Brian Wilson.

The Royals offense has literally been hit-or-miss, ranking 30^th in walks. This speaks to a lack of plate discipline, or their inability to wait for good pitches. Their aggressiveness has helped a lineup without star talent to get timely hits. Being too aggressive, however, can lead to long stretches of bad at-bats. CF Lorenzo Cain led the Royals in average with .301, but only had five homers. Their top three home run hitters were LF Alex Gordon (19), Perez (17), and 3B Mike Moustakas (15). Their batting averages were meager .266, .260, and .212 respectively. The Giants have offensive ups and downs, explosions followed by lulls. They have more potential pop in their lineup than the Royals, led by C Buster Posey (22 HR, .311 BA), RF Hunter Pence (20, .277), LF Michael Morse and 3B Pablo Sandoval (16, .279 each). If the Royals do not fall behind early, I give them the edge late in close games because of the bullpen.

Jake Peavy has had a stellar season as well, but I believe the Royals will even up the series in game 2. The Giants have playoff experience, but I think their remaining starters will struggle unlike Bumgarner. Although KC will play well for the remainder of the series, I believe the Giants will win in 7.