Cavs, Heat, Bulls

The NBA Regular season is underway, and the intrigue is already building. After about a week, I am analyzing the top three teams in the Eastern Conference. These are the three teams closest to a title as currently constituted.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The most intriguing team in the entire league is the Cleveland Cavaliers, but many of the issues they will face have already been exposed. By returning to his home state, LeBron James has put himself in and interesting spot. He is doing his best to lessen expectations for this team, contrary to what he did when he arrived in Miami. He is right to do this, but people will use it against him if the team struggles. Many forget that the Heat struggled when LeBron first arrived. It took about a month for them to start to click. Also, this team is not constituted the exact same way. James’ weight loss will relegate him to the SF position, meaning that Love is the PF and Varajao is the C. Their best bench player is Tristan Thompson, who primarily plays the PF. In Miami, James and Chris Bosh played PF and C respectively. They were built better for transition basketball than the current Cavs are. Cleveland also lacks the 3-point shooting prowess Miami did, which is integral in stretching the floor.

PG Kyrie Irving has a very different role than he did last year. He has to share ball-handling duties with James, and sometimes with Dion Waiters. Irving has not had to play off the ball much in his career, but he will now. This will test his toughness and basketball IQ, when skill and athleticism was getting him by before. Ability to play off the ball was what allowed Patrick Beverly to beat out the more talented Jeremy Lin at PG in Houston last year. He also needs to improve his shooting percentage, which will be tough now that he will be getting less shots. His shooting percentage has decreased in each of his three seasons. (.469, .452, .430) Kyrie is a special player, but he will need to learn to play a different game. He has more to think about now, which could lead to overthinking. The key for him will be playing fast but also being in control. He will learn, but it will not be an easy transition.

PF Kevin Love may be the most versatile offensive big man in the NBA. He is like Chris Bosh, but with a better low post game. He shoots 5-7 threes a game, which is a good amount. He is also an exceptional rebounder, averaging 12.5 per game last year with Minnesota. Despite his strengths, he is a poor defender. He allowed a combined 35 points to LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez in their game against Portland. This team has many moving parts, challenging the acumen of rookie head coach Dave Blatt. Blatt had incredible success in Europe, but he is still learning the American game. Once he learns his players’ strengths and the right rotations, this team will improve very quickly.

Miami Heat

The Miami Heat is built to be one of the top contenders in the East, and C Chris Bosh will be the main reason. Bosh fell in love with the three too much, which took the team out of rhythm at times. Bosh attempted 218 three-pointers last year, accounting for 41% of his career attempts. He had a confidence last year, which lacked his first three years in Miami. Now that LeBron James is gone, Bosh is ready to take over as the primary scorer. He will get more touches, and there will be more space in the middle of the floor for his to shoot mid-range jumpers. Dwyane Wade looks like himself thus far, but he is still an unknown moving forward. I do not believe his body will hold up unless his minutes are monitored.

Although this team does not possess a star point guard, they are very deep at the position. When healthy, they have Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, and Shabazz Napier. All have the ability to score and run an offense. SF Luol Deng is the perfect fit for this system. He does not need to be a scorer, so his defense and basketball IQ are what will make him valuable. He will play a very similar one he did in Chicago.

The power forward position is interesting for this team. At the moment, Shawne Williams and Josh McRoberts are platooning there. They are both versatile, and both can be used for different situations.

Despite many positives, the Heat is not elite from a talent standpoint. They will struggle if Bosh and D-Wade struggle. Coach Erik Spoelstra, however, has learned over the last few years how to create the proper situational lineups. The East is weak this year, so they will at least make it to the second round of the playoffs.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have been knocking on the door for the past few years now, despite multiple injuries to star PG Derrick Rose. With Rose relatively healthy at the moment (although he missed a game), the Bulls look like one of the most complete teams in the NBA. The acquisition of PF Pau Gasol adds a new dimension to the team. His inside presence gives C Joakim Noah much needed help down low. SF Jimmy Butler has improved his offensive game, and looks ready to take the next step as a player. He averaged 13.1 ppg last year, but he is averaging 22.5 in his first two games this year.

Unlike teams like the Thunder, the Bulls have a system that allows for new guys to be plugged in when necessary. Their current bench includes PF Taj Gibson, PG Aaron Brooks, PG Kirk Hinrich, second year SF Tony Snell, and rookie forwards Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic. Gibson is an early sixth man of the year candidate, averaging 16 ppg, 5rpg, and 1.3 bpg in 29.7 minutes per game in three games. Coach Tom Thibodeau always has his team playing system and defensive minded basketball, which creates a culture of discipline seen in every game.

The thing that will haunt this team again is three point shooting. I have said for years now that this will prevent them from going all the way, regardless of what they do in the regular season. They were dead last in the league last year in ppg (93.7), 28^th in three-point attempts (17.8), and 24th three-point percentage (.348). Outside of Mike Dunleavy, no one is consistent in this area. I expect this team to reach the Conference Finals, but I do not see a NBA title in their future.