The NBA Playoffs are finally underway, and there are too many interesting storylines to keep track of. This week I will cover the Western Conference playoffs, and I will check in on the East next week. I fully expect Houston to beat Dallas easily, and I think the Spurs will beat the Clippers. San Antonio looked awful in game 1, and they are unfamiliar to not having home court advantage. This series will likely go seven, but I think the Spurs will win. I have chosen to analyze the two series that intrigue me the most, based on future implications. I am writing this as of Tuesday, April 21.
Grizzles vs Blazers (Memphis leads 1-0):
Game 1 was never close. Portland got off to a cold start, opening 0-6 from the field. Portland's chances to win a title greatly diminished with the injury to SG Wes Matthews. Matthews is one of the more consistent shooters in the league. CJ McCollum is the starting two now. He is formidable, but he is really more of a point guard. Memphis was already a huge team due to the inside presence of PF Zach Randolph and C Marc Gasol, and they added size at the SF position with Jeff Green. They acquired him from the Boston Celtics mid-season. This allows Tony Allen to play his natural bench role. The key matchup in the series is Randolph against LaMarcus Aldridge. Both guys are the focal points of the offense for their respective teams. Memphis likes to go inside out, whereas Portland likes to get the ball to Aldridge moving to the hoop, or to the elbow for the jumper. Aldridge uses his quickness to his advantage, while Randolph uses his strength. Both guys will get plenty of touches. Whoever wins this matchup will give his team the edge in the series. Aldridge did a decent job of disrupting Randolph in the post. In past years, I have picked against Memphis due to their lack of outside shooting. This problem has still not been solved. Although acquiring Green was great, they should have added a shooter at the deadline. The best outside shooter they currently have is Courtney Lee, so he needs to have a big series. Although the struggle from outside, they can be very effective in the midrange game. Portland can become far too reliant on the outside shot. During the regular season, they attempted 27 threes per game. Aldridge is their best big man, and his main shot is the mid range jumper. Aldridge attempted 107 threes during the season. Robin Lopez is great defensively and as a rebounder, but he adds little on offense. The Blazers like to get their bigs moving to the hoop on pick and rolls, but they rarely post up. This makes it harder for them to slow down the game when they need to. Mike Conley is the x-factor for Memphis. Since he handles the ball most of the time, his decision making determines the type of shots the team gets. When he is making the right decisions, the offense gets into a rhythm. He missed the last four games of the regular season, so he probably is not 100 percent. Portland is deep. Steve Blake and Chris Kaman were huge additions. Regardless, it was the Grizzlies' bench that help the team run away with the game. Beno Udrih was huge off the bench at end of 1st. He hit his first six shots. His presence was huge due to Conley's limitations. Portland star PG Damian Lillard was 0-4 in first quarter. Lillard is a slasher, but that is nearly impossible against Memphis' size. Memphis got out to an 11-0 run at the beginning of second quarter, and never looked back. The Grizzlies are the better team in this series, but I expect Portland to win two. This could possibly be the year the Grizzlies get over the hump.
Warriors vs Pelicans (GS leads 2-0):
The Golden State Warriors are clearly the superior team in this series, but I am fascinated with how they will look moving forward. This series shows how amazing the Warriors are when they are clicking, but also why they will struggle against good teams. The New Orleans Pelicans still are a year or two away from being a real contender, but they have exposed some weaknesses that the #1 overall seed in the west has. New Orleans jumped out to 11-4 start. Anthony Davis hit two wide open shots from top of the key. Golden State hit two threes to make it 11-10, the first by Draymond Green and the second by Steph Curry. New Orleans missed some early open lay ups. Nerves were clearly an issue. Eric Gordon hit first three threes. He had a great night, finishing with 23 points. The Pelicans went on a four minute 12-0 run at end of first quarter. The Warriors' reliance on the outside shot is evident. The early part of this game confirmed my fear that they cannot sustain this style for an entire playoff run. Bogut is a solid big man, but he is basically the only one they have. Festus Ezili is the basically the backup center. Draymond Green is a SF, but he was guarding Anthony Davis for much of the night. The Pelicans finished with a points in the paint advantage, despite the loss. In beginning of second quarter, great bench play by Leandro Barbosa and Mareese Speights kept the Warriors close. Speights barely played in game 1. It was amazing to see Barbosa still playing at such a high level. HE finished with 12 points in 15 minutes. PG Norris Cole was great for Pelican bench. He was 4-7 to start. Despite being young, he has more playoff experience than the rest of the team due to his time with Miami. Golden State went on two minute 17-5 run at end of second, led by previously silent Klay Thompson. He would be huge down the stretch, and ended up with an ultra efficient 26 point night on 11-17 shooting. Although Pelicans have size advantage, a big lineup hindered ability to defined the perimeter. The Warriors' big men create by getting to the middle of the lane and making correct passes, or in the pick and roll when Curry is being doubled. It always seems either Curry or Thompson has an open shot. the Pelicans started the second half with a 7-0 run. Eric Gordon displayed solid defense on Steph Curry. Andre Iguodala got open a few times, but he is not a great three point shooter. The game was tied at 71 at end of third. The Warriors made another run at start of fourth. Anthony Davis kicked up aggressiveness when his team needed him. He could have shot better, but he is a great free throw shooter. Pelican C Omer Asik got some critical rebounds down the stretch. The Pelicans have the ability to play small with Davis at center, or big with him at power forward. This allows for the team to always have the proper lineup for the situation at hand. Golden State finally pulled away in final minute and a half. This was an impressive performance by New Orleans, considering that the Warriors have not lost at home since January. This game was chock full of runs by both teams. The Warriors can shoot the lights out, but they also have lulls. A team like San Antonio or Memphis could slow their pace. The Warriors need to be able to slow down the game when the situation calls for it, and I'm not sure if they can.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Tigers/Yankees/Dodgers
The 2015 MLB season is underway. Although only a week and a half has passed, there are already interesting stories brewing around the league.
Detroit Tigers:
The Detroit Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball over the last decade, but they have not been able to win a title despite making two trips. They have been known for great hitting and pitching, but lackluster fielding has hurt them in the past. The Tigers led the league in batting average last year (.277), and were second in runs scored (757). The hitting is still stellar, led by current hits leader Miguel Cabrera. The pitching, however, may be problematic. Last year, they allowed 4.01 runs a game (24th in the league). Justin Verlander took a huge step back after his MVP season two years ago, and he's starting this season on the 15-day DL. The Tigers traded for David Price at last years’ deadline, but they lost Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello over the offseason. In his last start, Anibal Sanchez allowed eight hits, five earned runs, and three homers in 6.1 innings. Kyle Lobstein is Verlander's replacement, and he is unproven. This team has been underachieving for many years, so it is hard to say if they will finally get over the hump this year.
New York Yankees:
The Yankees' pitching staff struggled last year. They are switching closers for the second straight year in Dellin Betances, and he has struggled. Masahiro Tanaka was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball last year until he was sidelined with an elbow injury. Tanaka refrained from Tommy John surgery, in line with Japanese culture. Early this season, his velocity is down. He is still pitching decently, but it will be interesting to see how his elbow compares to the numerous pitchers who have had the surgery. With CC Sabathia's evident decline continuing, the team will look to unproven commodities in Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi to shore up the rotation. The offense has looked better than last year so far. The team never dropped Derek Jeter in the lineup last year, which may have been to their detriment. Their .245 batting average was 20th in the league last year. The average has not spiked yet, but their twelve homers is tied with Baltimore for the league lead. Stephen Drew and Chase Headley have looked solid over the past couple games. Drew could very well become the everyday shortstop, since Didi Gregorius' first week as a Yankee was marred by baserunning blunders. Jacoby Ellsbury was a bright spot for this offense last year, and he has been so far this year too. He is batting. 296, although he amazingly does not have a homerun or RBI yet. They Yankees are not used to being a middle of the road team, but they should be better than last year.
LA Dodgers:
The Dodgers traded longtime outfielder Matt Kemp to the Padres for catcher Yasmani Grandal, with rookie Joc Pederson waiting in the wings. They also completely overhauled their middle infield. They got rid of Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon, and replaced them with Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick. These are huge moves considering that the Dodgers were a legitimate contender last year, but they are trying to improve on defense. The Dodgers hit for a .265 average last year, which was third in the league. The offense will be fine most likely, because Adrian Gonzales and Yasiel Puig are two of the most dynamic hitters in baseball. After roughly a week, Gonzalez is hitting .556 with five homers and seven RBIs. Offense is big for this team, because they do not have stellar pitching. Clayton Kershaw is the reigning Cy Young winner, and Zack Greinke is a great nimbler two, but the rotation drops off after that. Hyun-Jin Ryu did a good job as the third starter last year, but he is starting the season on the DL with a shoulder injury. The front office clearly felt a new approach was necessary, but it will be interesting to see if the team loses too much offense.
Detroit Tigers:
The Detroit Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball over the last decade, but they have not been able to win a title despite making two trips. They have been known for great hitting and pitching, but lackluster fielding has hurt them in the past. The Tigers led the league in batting average last year (.277), and were second in runs scored (757). The hitting is still stellar, led by current hits leader Miguel Cabrera. The pitching, however, may be problematic. Last year, they allowed 4.01 runs a game (24th in the league). Justin Verlander took a huge step back after his MVP season two years ago, and he's starting this season on the 15-day DL. The Tigers traded for David Price at last years’ deadline, but they lost Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello over the offseason. In his last start, Anibal Sanchez allowed eight hits, five earned runs, and three homers in 6.1 innings. Kyle Lobstein is Verlander's replacement, and he is unproven. This team has been underachieving for many years, so it is hard to say if they will finally get over the hump this year.
New York Yankees:
The Yankees' pitching staff struggled last year. They are switching closers for the second straight year in Dellin Betances, and he has struggled. Masahiro Tanaka was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball last year until he was sidelined with an elbow injury. Tanaka refrained from Tommy John surgery, in line with Japanese culture. Early this season, his velocity is down. He is still pitching decently, but it will be interesting to see how his elbow compares to the numerous pitchers who have had the surgery. With CC Sabathia's evident decline continuing, the team will look to unproven commodities in Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi to shore up the rotation. The offense has looked better than last year so far. The team never dropped Derek Jeter in the lineup last year, which may have been to their detriment. Their .245 batting average was 20th in the league last year. The average has not spiked yet, but their twelve homers is tied with Baltimore for the league lead. Stephen Drew and Chase Headley have looked solid over the past couple games. Drew could very well become the everyday shortstop, since Didi Gregorius' first week as a Yankee was marred by baserunning blunders. Jacoby Ellsbury was a bright spot for this offense last year, and he has been so far this year too. He is batting. 296, although he amazingly does not have a homerun or RBI yet. They Yankees are not used to being a middle of the road team, but they should be better than last year.
LA Dodgers:
The Dodgers traded longtime outfielder Matt Kemp to the Padres for catcher Yasmani Grandal, with rookie Joc Pederson waiting in the wings. They also completely overhauled their middle infield. They got rid of Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon, and replaced them with Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick. These are huge moves considering that the Dodgers were a legitimate contender last year, but they are trying to improve on defense. The Dodgers hit for a .265 average last year, which was third in the league. The offense will be fine most likely, because Adrian Gonzales and Yasiel Puig are two of the most dynamic hitters in baseball. After roughly a week, Gonzalez is hitting .556 with five homers and seven RBIs. Offense is big for this team, because they do not have stellar pitching. Clayton Kershaw is the reigning Cy Young winner, and Zack Greinke is a great nimbler two, but the rotation drops off after that. Hyun-Jin Ryu did a good job as the third starter last year, but he is starting the season on the DL with a shoulder injury. The front office clearly felt a new approach was necessary, but it will be interesting to see if the team loses too much offense.
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