Super Bowl XLIV

Super Bowl XLIV is here, and the Patriots’ ball scandal has dominated the airwaves over the last two weeks. Both teams are hard to like. The perception of this game is that it features callous cheaters against bombastic trash talkers. I personally think deflate gate is being overblown, since it takes far more than a deflated ball to win a playoff game by 38. All of this is ultimately great for the league, because it guarantees maximum viewership. Unfortunately, the Pats’ recent performance is being overshadowed. Tom Brady has been stellar in the playoffs, having thrown six touchdowns two games. Seattle is dominant most of the time, but they appear human now. Everyone saw how the Packers did everything imaginable to lose a game they had in the bag. Seattle may veil this outcome as clutch, but not me. Their weaknesses were exposed, and the Pats are a better all around team than the Packers. The Patriots' run defense was ranked ninth in the league. (Green Bay was ranked 23^rd)

Location may favor Seattle. Seattle fans filled MetLife Stadium last year, and Arizona is much closer than New Jersey. The game will not play out like last year, however. The indoor stadium and warm weather will favor the Patriot passing game, unlike what the Broncos faced a year ago. New England needs to be crisp early. Seattle’s 272.4 ypg allowed is first in the NFL, and their 17 ppg allowed is second. Seattle has a tendency to have slow starts offensively, but explode late. Two of Seattle’s best defensive backs (Sherman and Thomas) are not 100 percent. Green Bay was scared to throw at Sherman for a second time, but the Pats will be different. He does have two picks in the playoffs, however, so the respect is warranted. They will go after Sherman a few times, but Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski will be the most important player in the game.

Seattle’s linebackers will have to figure out a way to slow him down. Outside linebackers Bruce Irvin and K.J. Wright will have the biggest responsibility, but Seattle will show multiple defensive looks. If New England puts up big passing numbers, the yards will likely come inside as opposed to outside. This means safety Kam Chancellor will be critical as well. Seattle allowed a mere 41.4 yards per game to tight ends. (5^th in the league) This is impressive, considering that teams do not attack their outside corners at a high rate. They did, however, allow tight ends to score 11 touchdowns. Gronk will not put up crazy yards, but he could make all the difference in the red zone.

Whoever can establish the running game first will have the edge. Both teams like to control the clock with the running game. This is why Russell Wilson is so important. He and Marshawn Lynch complement each other perfectly in the running game. Lynch does the dirty work up the middle, while Wilson can run off tackle. 

New England is hoping for a repeat performance by LeGarrette Blount, who ran for. The Pats’ formula will be to control the clock by running run the ball. Unlike other teams, they will actually score a few touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. They will pull ahead early, and hold on to win. New England wins 24-21.

Photos from bleacherreport.com

NFL Conference Championship Games

The NFL Conference Championships are here, and four teams are looking to punch their tickets to the Super Bowl XLIX in Arizona. Here is my analysis and predictions.

Green Bay Packers (12-4) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4):

The NFC Championship Game will feature the ultimate battle of offense versus defense. Green Bay is sixth in total offense, and Seattle is first in total defense. Aaron Rodgers had a great game against Dallas, which was magnified by the calf injury he was battling. 

He was visibly hobbled, evident by the fact that he chose not to run in situations where he would normally do so. Although I believe he is the best quarterback in football, the physicality of Seattle’s defense will be too much to handle. He should be a little healthier, but the calf will likely not be 100%. Rodgers infamously refused to throw at Seattle’s top cornerback in week 1 (a 36-16 loss), but he has said he will not do the same this week. Rodgers will have to be perfect to best Seattle’s stellar secondary, as well as their front seven led by Michael Bennett, Bruce Irvin, and Cliff Avril. Safety Kam Chancellor has been playing like the best defensive player in the league as of late. 

In the opener against Seattle, Packer RB Eddie Lacy only ran for 34 yards on 12 carries. Since week 12, however, Lacy has run for at least 98 yards in every game except one. He struggled in general early in the season, but he has been playing exceptionally well lately. He will be the x-factor in this game for Green Bay. If they cannot run the ball effectively, the have no chance against the defending champs.

Seattle’s offense racked up 398 yards in the opener, but they also had Percy Harvin at the time. Harvin had 11 touches for 100 yards. Seattle’s 375.8 ypg are ninth in the league, which can be attributed to their running game. Their 203.1 pass ypg is 27^th in the league, but their 172.6 rushing ypg is first. Their 24.6 points per game are tenth in the NFL. Although their offense is not stellar, it is a great complement to the defense. They are third in the league in time of possession, meaning that they can effectively control the clock. Russell Wilson does not throw much, but he throws when necessary. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and Luke Willson have been integral to the passing game. RB Marshawn Lynch had another great year, finishing fourth in the league with 1306 rushing yards (81.6 ypg).

The Packers’ run defense was ranked a subpar 20^th. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray ran for 123 yards on 25 carries (4.9 ypc) against Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Their run defense went from 24^th to 20^th after switching Clay Matthews from outside linebacker to inside linebacker. The Packers have also notably struggled against the zone-read, which is a huge part of Seattle’s offense.

Green Bay looked impressive against Dallas, but Seattle is on an entirely different level. The fact that the game is in Seattle will make it almost impossible for the Packers. The game will be relatively low scoring, but Seattle will maintain a two score lead for most of the game. Seattle will not run away with it, but Green Bay will never really have a chance. Seattle wins 31-21.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at New England Patriots (12-4):

If you are a fan of quarterback play, then the AFC Championship Game should be a thriller. Tom Brady is coming to the end of a Hall of Fame, career, and Andrew Luck is at the beginning of one. The Patriots came back from 14-point deficits twice to beat the Ravens 35-31. The Pats beat the Colts 42-20 week 11 in Indianapolis. Brady is 3-0 against Andrew Luck. Each Patriot win was by at least 21, and Luck has thrown six touchdowns and eight picks in those games. In Week 11, Patriots running back Jonas Gray ran for 201 yards and four touchdowns of 37 carries. Gray did not play against the Ravens, and the Patriots only had 14 rushing yards on 13 carries. 

Brady played very well, completing 66 percent of his passes for 367 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. The fact that this game is in Foxborough is huge for the Pats. Brady has thrown for 19 touchdowns and three interceptions at home. New England’s only home loss came in the last week of the season, when the team had already clinched the No.1 seed in the playoffs. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski finished with seven catches for 108 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore. Whether or not the Colts can cover him will be huge.

Luck has become one of the best quarterbacks in football since being the #1 overall pick in 2012. In the regular season, he threw for 4,671 yards and led the league with 40 touchdowns. The Colts scored 28.6 points per game this season with Luck at the helm. 

Although they won their last two games, the Colts’ offense did not look overly impressive. In their last six games, they have failed to crack 27 points. In those games, Luck cracked 300-yards passing only once. Even in the playoff win over the Denver, Luck threw two picks. Luck is great, but he could use some help from the running game. The Colts’ 100.8 rushing ypg is 22^nd in the league. As fantastic as Luck is, he is asked to do more than any other quarterback in the league. RB Dan Herron has looked good lately, but it is hard to predict what he will do game-to-game. The Colts clearly are not comfortable running the ball, since Luck throws the ball often in running situations.

Indy’s defense stopped Denver’s second ranked scoring offense, despite a mere ranking of 19th in the regular season. Peyton Manning only threw for 211 passing yards on 46 attempts. It was revealed that Manning was playing with a lingering quad injury, so the outcome may have been skewed. All five of Indianapolis’ regular season losses came against top seven scoring offenses, including New England. The Colts allowed an average of 39.2 points per game in those losses.

Indy impressed the football world when they upset Denver, but this game will be different. The Patriots have the advantage in coaching and experience, which will be the difference. The game will be close, but the Pats will prevail. New England wins 42-35.

Photos from bleacherreport.com

CFB National Championship Prediction

My semifinal predictions were very wrong, but things happen. Turnovers derailed Florida State’s chances against Oregon, and Ohio State’s running game elevated them to a win over Alabama. With the title game set, I explore who will win and why.

Oregon QB Marcus Mariota had one of the great years in college football history, and he showed his ability in the Rose Bowl. Against Florida State, he threw for 338 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. He also ran for 62 yards. In the regular season, he threw 38 touchdowns with only two picks, and he ran for 669 yards. 

Oregon ran a play every 20.2 seconds in the Rose Bowl, and they racked up 639 yards. Oregon averaged 48.2 points per game. They are third in the country in 552.9 yards per game, and their 7.39 yards per play is second. I there is a weakness, WR Devon Allen hurt his knee on the opening kickoff of the Rose Bowl and will likely miss the title game. Allen is second on the team with 41 catches for 674 yards and seven touchdowns. RB Thomas Tyner ran for 124 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries in the Rose Bowl, much of which came in obvious running situations due to the score. A shoulder injury and sore ankle kept Tyner out of Oregon's last three games before the Rose Bowl. He has been losing caries to freshman Royce Freeman, but Tyner being healthy bodes for a deadly two-headed monster. Oregon’s o-line was at full strength last week, and the difference was evident. Ohio Sate has struggled to stop the run, allowing 142 rushing yards per game.

If the Buckeyes have any chance, they will need to put pressure on Marcus Mariota. In order for this to happen, they will rely on sophomore DE Joey Bosa. He was a freshman All-American last year, and he piled up 46 tackles this year. Though he has been great at times, he has struggled lately. He has gone without a sack or tackle for loss in the last two games. In the 12 previous games, Bosa tallied 13.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. The Buckeyes defensive front will have the greatest responsibility in the game.

Oregon stomped the defending national champions Florida State 59-20 in the Rose Bowl on Thursday. Their defense shown through, which makes for a lethal combo when mixed with their innovative offense. Oregon’s defense allows 406.3 yards per game, but they only allow 22.3 points per game. Oregon’s defense has been playing much better lately. In the last four games, Oregon has allowed 10, 19, 13 and 20 points. Also, they forced 30 turnovers this year (second to Michigan State).  Their pass defense could be the biggest disadvantage. They allow 265.9 passing yards per game, much of which comes in garbage time when the Ducks are leading. Even so, the Buckeyes like to go deep. They have had 51 passing plays of 20-yards or more. Oregon has allowed 44 passing plays of 20-yards or more this year. OSU WR Devin Smith led the NCAA in yards per catch (26.6) on only 30 receptions. QB Cardale Jones made his second career start in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama, and played well. He threw for 243 yards with a touchdown and a pick, and ran for 43 yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot was the star of the Sugar Bowl, running for 230 yards on 20 carries.

Ohio State showed their ability to win big games, which is a testament to coach Urban Meyer. He was able to beat Nick Saban and Alabama with a third-string quarterback. They play a tough brand of football, which is the typical strategy against Oregon. The Seminoles clearly attempted this strategy like I predicted, but the two Dalvin Cook fumbles derailed them. Both fumbles led to Oregon touchdowns. Jameis Winston’s fumble added insult to injury. 

Clock control is still the best bet, but Ohio State will need to be completely mistake free to win. Ohio State has the roster and the coaching to do it, but Oregon has a tendency to run away with games in the blink of an eye. This game will be close in the first half, but Oregon pulls away in the second. Oregon wins 42-31.

Photos from bleacherreport.com