NFL Draft 2019

NFL Draft 2019

The NFL Draft has come and gone. Finally. Already it’s a month later than it used to be, and it’s now spread out over three days. Anyway, I survived it, and here is my stellar analysis.

Although the early part of the draft was chock full of surprises, the first three picks were anything but. As was predicted for weeks, the Cardinals took Kyler Murray first, the 49ers took Joey Bosa second, and Quinnen Williams went third to the Jets.

Day 1:

Murray to Arizona was a terribly kept secret, considering they removed all signs of Josh Rosen from the team’s promotional material. Rosen, the tenth overall pick last year, is now headed to Miami, leaving the coast clear for Murray. Murray did unbelievable things at Oklahoma last year, but he only started one season. Hard to hold that against him however, since the guy starting ahead of him was last years’ first pick Baker Mayfield. Murray has a combo of arm strength and running ability not seen since Colin Kaepernick, albeit with a much smaller frame. He’s closest thing we’ve seen to Michael Vick, and the fact that he’s the same height as Russell Wilson made his small size less of an issue. It’s a huge risk, but none of the other quarterbacks in the draft were can’t miss prospects. So even if he’s a bust, Murray will help the Cards sell tickets.

The 49ers taking Bosa was an obvious choice as well. Although the team used three consecutive first round picks on edge rushers (before taking T Mike McGlinchy last year), those guys cannot actually rush the edge. Arik Armstead, DeForrest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas all are good interior linemen, but teams are able to get outside on them frequently. Bosa is a little undersized for a defensive end, but his versatility is why he’s so valuable. He can play outside linebacker as well, and his pure pass rush ability is off the charts. He also has a strong bloodline, as his brother is a star for the Chargers and his dad was a former first round pick. There is also significant injury history in his family, and he suffered a big injury last year. Hopefully that isn’t an issue moving forward.

Quinnen Williams was considered by many to be the best d-lineman in a stacked class, so this was a good value pick for the Jets at #3. He may not be the pure outside rusher Bosa is, but he is stronger and is a far better interior run stopper. San Francisco had enough inside guys, so Willians filled more of a need for New York. Leonard Williams has underachieved since going sixth four years ago, so Quinnen should take pressure off of him. He is a pure competitor, a quality Leonard allegedly lacks. He played for Nick Saban at Alabama, a program known for producing stellar defensive picks. All in all, Williams was by far the best available player here, so no complaints with the pick.

The Raiders taking Clelin Ferrell fourth was somewhat surprising, considering there were many pass rushers ranked ahead of him. Jon Gruden could have taken Khalil Mack’s replacement in Josh Allen, who is a similar prototype. But they took Ferrell, seemingly due to his character. He was raised by two military parents, and is known as an extremely hard worker. I’m sure playing for the recent Clemson dynasty helped too. I cannot kill the pick, but I do have one concern; Ferrell needs to be developed, and dysfunctional organizations tend to struggle with that. Not to mention how little they got back from the Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper trades. Mack is a superstar and Cooper is elite, yet they yielded the 24th and 27th picks respectively. They used those picks on Bama RB Josh Jacobs and Mississippi St. safety Johnathan Abram. Considering how low those picks were, it is really hard to justify the trades.

Devin White was the first linebacker taken, going to Tampa at 5. This was an obvious one, as well as when the next LB Devin Bush went to the Steelers at #10. Both were drafted to replace superstars. Tampa lost Kwon Alexander to the 49ers in free agency, and Pittsburgh still needed to replace Ryan Shazier since he suffered near paralysis in 2017. White is an elite blitzer, who should fit well in new DC Todd Bowles’ system. He also also more than competent in coverage, a skill that should continue to develop. Many believe he may already be better in coverage than Alexander was. They surprisingly passed on some elite edge rushing defensive ends, but they probably felt the linebacker market was more sparse.
The Steelers wanted Bush all along, evident by the fact they traded up ten spots to get him. Bush is the son of a former NFL safety, he ran a 4.4 at the combine, and he has a remarkably high motor. Expect to see him on the field a great deal as a rookie.

Undoubtedly the most shocking pick of the draft was the Giants selecting Duke QB Daniel Jones at #6. It’s funny because GM Dave Gettleman found a way to do what the fan base wanted while ticking them off at the same time. According to Pro Football Focus, Jones was the fifth best QB available, and the 70th prospect overall. Jones is a big athletic kid with potential for sure. With that said, it is hard to justify taking him at #6. Especially considering they most likely could have gotten him at #17. This paved the way for Jacksonville to get Josh Allen, a beast of a pass rusher, at #7. The Giants could have had Jones and arguably the pass rusher in the draft. Instead, they took Dexter Lawrence, an enormous d-tackle who can clog the middle but not much else. Gettleman got the QB he wanted, but he better be right. Not to mention their hated rivals in Washington got Dwayne Haskins, the guy New York should have picked in my opinion. I mean he threw 50 touchdowns last year for God’s sake. Jones is a better runner than Haskins, but last time I checked the quarterback is supposed to throw the ball.

The top of this draft was chock full of linemen, both on offense and defense. Of the 32 first round picks, 19 were big boys. Ed Oliver to Buffalo at #9 made perfect sense. He had a great career at Houston, and was expected by many to be drafted higher. He has an incredibly high motor, which should rub off on his teammates. Considering that star defensive tackle Kyle Williams just retired, Oliver will fit in seamlessly.

Cincinnati got a steal in OT Jonah Williams at #11, who many considered the best offensive lineman in the draft. The Alabama product was knocked for having short arms, but that does not seem to hinder his ability. Ereck Flowers had short arms too, but he couldn’t play in general. It still may be true that he’s a better fit at guard, but the teams felt he was too good to pass up. They think they can make it work.

DT Christian Wilkins went #13 to Miami. He can play in multiple minutes packages, as he is the perfect blend of size and athleticism. Also, he showed how ballsy he is by roughing up the commissioner on stage. His Clemson pedigree clearly raised his value, considering three d-linemen from that school got picked in the first round. It is hard to justify not filling the QB hole by taking Haskins, but they very well could tank for Tua Tagovailoa next year.

Atlanta and Minnesota took Chris Lindstrom and Garrett Bradbury respectively, a guard and a center. Both teams had other needs, but they ultimately viewed protecting their franchise QBs as the biggest priority. Philly and Houston did the same thing (for the same reason) by taking tackles Andre Dillard and Tytus Howard back-to-back at 22 and 23. Both of those teams have QBs who could be one hit away from being done. Offensive linemen are not sexy picks, but they can be very substantive.

It looks like the Redskins got their QB of the future in Dwayne Haskins at #15. His fall was confounding, especially considering what the Giants did. Haskins had an unbelievable season last year at Ohio State, but was still unpolished. He would have greatly benefited by staying an extra year, but everyone thought he would be a top ten pick. Despite his mediocre footwork and below average athleticism, he throws a laser beam. His throwing arm is elite, so he will be fine in this league. The other stuff can be taught. Washington May have had the best first round out of anyone, as they traded back in and got Montez Sweat at #26. He was another elite edge rusher in this draft, who only fell because of a heart condition. This was a great job to get him this late, and they would not have had the picks to make the trade had they moved up to draft Haskins.

Baltimore made a gutsy pick at #25, taking Oklahoma receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown. Brown possesses lightning speed, and could be the most explosive pass catcher this team has had in awhile. He also happens to be the cousin of superstar Antonio Brown. The biggest potential problem here is style of play. Brown is known for taking the top off of defenses, but Lamar Jackson has not yet developed the ability to throw the deep ball. Since they are both so young, they could very well both develop together and adapt their games. If not, people will look back at this pick and wonder if the Ravens forgot they traded Joe Flacco to Denver.

The last pick of round one was also a receiver, ASU’s N’Keal Harry. This is the first time ever that Bill Belichick drafted a receiver in the first round. He also passed on some bigger names at that position, including physical freak D.K. Metcalf. Harry’s tape does not exactly wow the viewer, but he is known for being able to pluck balls out of the air. His hands are great, and he has good size. Yet he was not an effective red zone target for some reason. His is a raw prospect, but everyone knows the Pats will figure it out.

Day 2:

I will admit, I am not a college football junkie like most draft analysts. I am an NFL fan primarily, but I have an eye for the game in general. So with that said, here is a relatively quick recap of the best pick throughout the rest of the draft.

Jacksonville made the first second round splash by taking Florida tackle Jawaan Taylor #35. His had great game film in college, and should really help bolster their line. After him, there was a long stretch of receivers picked. Deebo Samuel went #36 to the Niners, A.J. Brown went #51 to Tennessee, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside went #57 to Philly, Parris Campbell went #59 to Indy, Andy Isabella went #62 to Arizona, and the aforementioned D.K. Metcalf went #64 to Seattle.

Samuel is a bit of a project, but his upside is huge. His college numbers were underwhelming, but he has shown ability in the red zone. He is smart for his age, and can run many different routes. This is the perfect fit for Coach Shanahan, who loves cerebral players. Brown is a pure slot receiver who put up way better numbers than his Ole Miss teammate Metcalf. He averaged over 100 yards per game this past season. The Titans still need a deep threat, but Brown was too talented to pass up.

Arcega-Whiteside is the son of two professional basketball players, and he plays football like it. He has great hands, and is a beast in the red zone. Due to the aggressive style of QB Carson Wentz, J.J. will have plenty of opportunities to catch touchdowns. Considering Philly already has a top red zone threat in Zach Ertz, this pick could be a match made in heaven, especially after losing Golden Tate.

Indy finally got a true big play threat in Campbell. The Ohio State product ran a blazing 4.31 40-yard dash in the combine. Most of his big plays came on short passes where he did work after the catch. He is the perfect fit for Frank Reich’s quick hitter offense, and he could easily develop into a good deep threat.

Andy Isabella from UMass also ran a 4.31, causing teams to take note of the small school product. He is small, but could be deadly in open space. Expect to seem he and Kyler Murray develop a connection very quickly.

Nasir Adderley went #60 to the Chargers, adding to their already incredible defensive backfield. The fact that he played at Delaware likely hurt his stock, but most believe he is an unbelievable talent. He is a great playmaker, and has coveted position versatility. He can play either safety position, and can play even play slot corner when he needs to. His athleticism and energy will be a great addition in LA. The Chargers has a rookie safety do spectacular thing last year in Derwin James, so that pairing could be truly scary.

The Pats got Michigan edge Chase Winovich at #77. He fell because he was viewed as a system player, but his numbers certainly suggest he can play. The Patriots know how to develop players, so this kid will likely be a star eventually.

Michigan State CB Justin Layne went 83rd to Pittsburgh, and he may be the biggest steal of the draft. He was rarely targeted, a sign of a shutdown corner. He does not possess elite straight line speed, but he is ideal for a cover 3 defense. He is tall for a corner (6’2”), and the fact he’s was converted from receiver made him more in-tune to what they are doing. He is elite at pass recognition, so he can potential turn into a great slot corner. Learning from veteran Joe Haden should definitely speed up Jo’s growth.

The Chiefs picked a potential steal in DT Khalen Saunders at #84, which is great third round value. He is atypical for a 320 plus pound lineman, since he can penetrate as opposed to just clogging his hole. The man can do a freaking backflip at that size, so it is hard to question his athleticism. He has a great first step, making in very hard to block down on him. He ate first rounder Chris Lindstrom up in the senior bowl. He is yet another small school guy that fell, but he will get playing time immediately for a Chiefs team that only has one other d-tackle under contract.

So there you have it. Every team has their rookies in place, and now we have the privilege of waiting four months for the regular season. I will do a recap of day three eventually, but all this reading about the draft was making me dizzy. The AAF briefly relieved my football withdrawals, but that league died. So I guess it’s NBA/NHL playoffs and baseball for now. Hang in there, fellow football fans. It’ll be her before you know it.

NFL Free Agency

NFL Free Agency 2019

The NFL season has been over for a couple months now, but this time of year is when fans get intrigued about what changes their teams will make. The draft is a few weeks away, and the first big wave of free agents have signed. Their are still a few big names out there (Ndamukong Suh, Eric Berry, Ziggy Ansah, Jamie Collins), but most teams have already made big decisions about their futures. I never though we would see an offseason where the Browns and Jets are arguably the biggest needle movers. Every year sees a ton of excitement, but this year was particularly intriguing.

Like every year, a handful of guys missed out on free agency due to the franchise tag. Defensive ends Frank Clark of Seattle and Jadeveon Clowney of Houston both received $17.1 million in franchise tags. Dallas DE DeMarcus Lawrence was franchised for $20.5 million. KC franchised DE Dee Ford, then traded him to the 49ers.

Nick Foles to Jacksonville: Whether or not Nick Foles is actually good may be debated forever. But the Jaguars’ opinion is the only one that matters, and they view him as the QB of the future. Foles was never able to beat out Carson Wentz in an open competition, but he was an unbelievable backup. In stints where he had to fill in the last two years, Foles won a Super Bowl and then had a nice run in year two. Philly could not keep him, considering you cannot pay two quarterbacks starter salaries. Jacksonville inherited him, but was it a good idea? First off, his contract will pay an average of $22 million, before it incentives. That’s more than the likes of Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Russell Wilson, all better players. But when you consider that relatively unproven Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo are making roughly $28 mil, Foles’ contract does not seem so bad. Timing is everything, as QB salaries are constantly rising. So the contract is actually a bargain by current standards. Desperation was also a factor here. Jacksonville found a way to be a contender despite bad QB play by Blake Bortles a couple years ago. This past season, however, his play went from bad to hideous. Tom Couglin is running this team, and he is insanely competitive. So the desire to not become a laughingstock is a good justification for an arguably rash decision. This is a risky decision, but it is actually very sensible. The team is unlikely to gain a high enough draft pick to get their quarterback of the future, so Foles is the perfect stopgap. The four year contract should likely take him through the remainder of his prime. Even if he stinks, he cannot be worse than Bortles. So the Jags did what they had to do, now they’re crossing their fingers.

Kansas City Decline?:
What on earth is going on in Kansas City? Their already porous defense lost everyone of note, and the Tyreek Hill off-the-field situation now has the entire future of the team in question. Obviously they lost Kareem Hunt in the middle of last season, but the effect are still being felt. They signed Carlos Hyde, but he will only be effective in a two-back backfield if Damian Williams steps up. Most of their losses were on defense, which one could argue is a good thing. Their defense was abysmal last year despite having a good pass rush. They lost pass rushers Dee Ford and Justin Houston, and did almost nothing to replace him. Despite being a good run stopper, newly signed DE Alex Okafor adds very little around the edge. With that said, they looked to have improved the secondary. Adding S Tyrann Mathieu should be a huge upgrade. He is a star who can make highlight plays. He had injury issues earlier in his career, but since he played all sixteen games the last two seasons that is no longer a concern. Despite his physical ability, it is unlikely he will replace the leadership of Eric Berry. Berry was the heart and soul of the team, but his age was creeping up. Cornerback Bashaud Breeland joined on a one year, $5 million dollar deal. He is still a good player, and this is a low risk signing. Despite this, it feels like too much change in one offseason. It will be hard for all these new pieces to mesh.

OBJ TRADE:
The football world was stunned when Odell Beckham Jr was traded from the Giants to the Browns for the 17th and 95th picks in the upcoming draft, as well as safety Jabrill Peppers. The Giants were ridiculed for this trade, but I think the return was actually pretty good. Peppers made huge strides in his second season last year. Despite being true strong safety, he was switched to free safety his rookie year and looked lost. In year two he went back to his natural position and looked much better. He was a superstar and Heisman Finalist at Michigan, so I believe he will be a solid replacement for Landon Collins (who signed with the Redskins). The 17th pick may seem too low, but Giants GM Dave Gettleman’s affinity for linemen will make it work. This is a draft chock full of linemen, so he will likely be able to get one of good value with that pick. If not, he can use it on a QB like Daniel Jones or Drew Lock if he does not like Dwayne Haskins.

Personal relationships often dictate the decisions that GMs make, not unlike most other workplaces. It appears that is what happened with Odell Beckham Jr. with the Giants. His countless cryptic tweets, his ESPN tell-all interview, and seemiing to not try to play through a minor injury made him expendable to GM Dave Gettkeman. He cannot stand divas, and new face-of-franchise Saquom Barkley is the furthest thing from that. Odell had become more trouble than he was worth. The trade was odd because the contract extension he got last year meant the Giants had to swallow a cap hit. That hot is only for this season however, so it will not be a hinderance long term. Plus, having a superstar receiver guarantees nothing. Randy Moss and Julio Jones came close, but it is rare that a Super Bowl champion has a receiver of that caliber. Quarterbacks, pass rushers, and defensive backs tend to have more of an individual impact. Had the giants won more than five games each of the last two years, maybe my take would be different. I cannot, however, kill the team for moving on when the have to make big changes to change their fortunes. Finally drafting a quarterback needs to be the next step, for the love of God. For Beckham, hopefully reuniting with his BFF Jarvis Landry helps him get his mind right. But considering he’s still acting weird all over social media, this team in Cleveland could implode quickly.

Antonio Brown trade:
OBJ was not the only high profile receiver to get traded recently. Antonio Brown got his wish of getting traded from Pittsburgh, and getting a new contract on arrival. His new team, the Raiders, have been a mess lately, so I do not expect this to work at all. QB Derek Carr was being called a busy by some a year ago, I’m not sure if the have a home stadium for next year, and Jon Gruden is a nutcase. Whether or not Ben Roethlisberger is a good leader, AB violates every piece of locker room code imaginable when he didn’t play in a must win game at the end of last year. His off-putting acts off the field are a red flag too. The Raiders may have brought him in for publicity, or simply because they have no talent at the position. But it makes trading Amari Cooper look dumb because he was a model citizen. And it makes trading Khalil Mack look mindless, although I softly defended the trade last year. The bottom line is that Mack is a gameplan-wrecker who can impact a game by himself. Remember what I said before about elite receivers? By the way, Brown is 30 years old. Beckham is only 26.

Le’veon Bell (and other moves by the Jets): The Steelers ridded themself of another headache by refraining from using the franchise tag on RB Le’veon Bell and letting him become a free agent. Bell held out all of last season due to the frustration of being overused and not being rewarded with a long term deal. It was a bold decision since he missed out on the franchise tag money, but the astronomical 406 touches he had the year before made his position understandable. The Jets got him for $52.5 million over four years, with $35 million guaranteed. Bell did not exactly reset the running back market like he had hoped, but the guarantee was significantly more than the five year deal he turn down from the Steelers. Bell’s contract is a bargain theoretically, since his initial demands were way more. With that said, he’s the second highest paid back in the league, and he has not played for a year. He is allegedly in great shape, but we will see.

Bell may not be a sure thing, but the Jets made plenty of noise this offseason. New coaching staff, new uniforms, new players. GM Mike Maccagnan is entering what could be his last year if things do not change, so he clearly swung for the fences. Outside of Bell, they made a few big splashes on defense. C.J. Mosley signed for five years, $85 million ($51 mil guaranteed). Mosley was a beast in Baltimore, racking up 388 tackles and four Pro Bowls in five years. Baltimore had the top defense in the league last season, so this is a huge upgrade at a position that made strides after signing Avery Williamson a year ago. Star inside linebackers are less bountiful than outside pass rushers, so that is likely the justification for the exorbitant contract.

Jamison Crowder is a nice addition at receiver, rounding out a position group which should have good depth. They also acquired former All-Pro guard Kelechi Osemele from the Raiders via trade, a move that went under the radar. The Jets still have some needs, most likely to be addressed in the draft. They are very thin at cornerback and center. They still need a pass rusher as well, complicated by Anthony Barr agreeing to come there and then changing his mind. Although the team is not perfect, this should be an exciting year. Assuming Darnold improves and these changes work out, this could be the start of a legitimate rebuild.

Super Bowl LIII Prediction

Another NFL season is coming to an end, so I’m bracing for a somber upcoming eight months. I had not been contemplating what to write about next since the NBA is borderline unwatchable, but I’ll figure something out. Anyway, controversy aside, the Super Bowl matchup is set between the Patriots and Rams. I had a feeling the Pats would be back despite looking human much of the year. The Rams were one of the two best teams in the NFC, so they have been pretty consistent all season. This game will be the classic matchup between old and new. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have been together since 2000, while Jared Goff and Sean McVay are in their third and second seasons respectively. Goff and McVay are a combined age of 57, nine years younger than Belichick. McVay has set the NFL on fire since being hired in 2017. He came up through the Mike Shanahan tree in Washington, and coached alongside Kyle Shanahan and newly hired Packers coach Matt LaFleur. Although he is mature beyond his years, this will be the most pressure he’s ever faced. New England is a slight betting favorite, due to the fact they are playing their best ball in the playoffs. When a team with this much experience gets hot, they can be scary. Their commitment to the run has been crucial, as it has allowed them to dominate time of possession and be very effective in the play action game. Rob Gronkowski has continued to be an asset due to his outstanding blocking, and last week he showed he can still catch the ball. They have enough talent to effectively run a game plan, even if no one is a star on their own. Belichick recruits guys who want to be coached meticulously, allowing for this level of discipline. Although I believe New England’s defense will play well, I haven’t gotten their performance in the last Super Bowl out of my mind. They were shredded by Nick Foles and the Eagles, allowing 538 yards (the Pats had 613 themselves). This is why my gut says it will be a high scoring game, but the Rams are the team more likely to be slowed down. Goff doesn’t exactly pass the eye test, but his two year improvement from his rookie campaign is undeniable. He showed mental toughness by surviving the Jeff Fisher era and fans calling him a bust. With that said, the Rams offense is hard to figure out. Many say it’s extremely innovative, others say it’s all based on pre-play confusion. Todd Gurley was a superstar all year, but he has essentially been benched for C.J. Anderson the last few games. Goff may be the most non-descript #1 overall picked QB ever. All of these factors make a one game outcome hard to predict, but that does not mean they cannot put it all together. The Rams receivers will have to step up to make everyone else’s job easier. This will be a tall task, since the injured Cooper Kupp was their only true slot guy. The x-factor for this game is the Rams defense. Brady will get the ball out quickly as always, so Aaron Donald and company will not get a bunch of sacks most likely. But if the secondary can keep Brady’s receivers from getting open, that could play right into their hands. I would say this was impossible if Aqib Talib was still injured. His presence will be huge, considering he’s still an elite man coverage corner at the advanced age of 32. The Rams need to make sure they stop the run, which has been a struggle for them. They allowed 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, last in the NFL. If Sony Michel gets going, the Pats will have their wish of being able to control the clock. Let’s keep it real, both teams will score plenty of points. The outcome is usually decided by who makes the critical stops late. If experience is a factor, advantage Pats. The underdog narrative being pushed by Brady and the team seems ridiculous, but it may actually help. Despite the fact they always run roughshod over the AFC, it has not been a given they will win the big game as of late. Maybe a slight amount of extra motivation breeds a more precise focus. I may be reading the tea leaves too deeply, but this Patriots team has a different vibe going in to the Super Bowl than they did last year. Unless Jared Goff channels his idol Joe Montana, the Rams will fall just short. Todd Gurley will at the bare minimum be rusty, whether his lack of use is due to injury or otherwise. I doubt C.J. Anderson can carry them to victory against a superior defensive mind. Patriots win 42-37.