Western Conference Playoffs

The NBA Playoffs are finally underway, and there are too many interesting storylines to keep track of. This week I will cover the Western Conference playoffs, and I will check in on the East next week. I fully expect Houston to beat Dallas easily, and I think the Spurs will beat the Clippers. San Antonio looked awful in game 1, and they are unfamiliar to not having home court advantage. This series will likely go seven, but I think the Spurs will win. I have chosen to analyze the two series that intrigue me the most, based on future implications. I am writing this as of Tuesday, April 21.



Grizzles vs Blazers (Memphis leads 1-0):



Game 1 was never close. Portland got off to a cold start, opening 0-6 from the field. Portland's chances to win a title greatly diminished with the injury to SG Wes Matthews. Matthews is one of the more consistent shooters in the league. CJ McCollum is the starting two now. He is formidable, but he is really more of a point guard. Memphis was already a huge team due to the inside presence of PF Zach Randolph and C Marc Gasol, and they added size at the SF position with Jeff Green. They acquired him from the Boston Celtics mid-season. This allows Tony Allen to play his natural bench role. The key matchup in the series is Randolph against LaMarcus Aldridge. Both guys are the focal points of the offense for their respective teams. Memphis likes to go inside out, whereas Portland likes to get the ball to Aldridge moving to the hoop, or to the elbow for the jumper. Aldridge uses his quickness to his advantage, while Randolph uses his strength. Both guys will get plenty of touches. Whoever wins this matchup will give his team the edge in the series. Aldridge did a decent job of disrupting Randolph in the post. In past years, I have picked against Memphis due to their lack of outside shooting. This problem has still not been solved. Although acquiring Green was great, they should have added a shooter at the deadline. The best outside shooter they currently have is Courtney Lee, so he needs to have a big series. Although the struggle from outside, they can be very effective in the midrange game. Portland can become far too reliant on the outside shot. During the regular season, they attempted 27 threes per game. Aldridge is their best big man, and his main shot is the mid range jumper. Aldridge attempted 107 threes during the season. Robin Lopez is great defensively and as a rebounder, but he adds little on offense. The Blazers like to get their bigs moving to the hoop on pick and rolls, but they rarely post up. This makes it harder for them to slow down the game when they need to. Mike Conley is the x-factor for Memphis. Since he handles the ball most of the time, his decision making determines the type of shots the team gets. When he is making the right decisions, the offense gets into a rhythm. He missed the last four games of the regular season, so he probably is not 100 percent. Portland is deep. Steve Blake and Chris Kaman were huge additions. Regardless, it was the Grizzlies' bench that help the team run away with the game. Beno Udrih was huge off the bench at end of 1st. He hit his first six shots. His presence was huge due to Conley's limitations. Portland star PG Damian Lillard was 0-4 in first quarter. Lillard is a slasher, but that is nearly impossible against Memphis' size. Memphis got out to an 11-0 run at the beginning of second quarter, and never looked back. The Grizzlies are the better team in this series, but I expect Portland to win two. This could possibly be the year the Grizzlies get over the hump.



Warriors vs Pelicans (GS leads 2-0):



The Golden State Warriors are clearly the superior team in this series, but I am fascinated with how they will look moving forward. This series shows how amazing the Warriors are when they are clicking, but also why they will struggle against good teams. The New Orleans Pelicans still are a year or two away from being a real contender, but they have exposed some weaknesses that the #1 overall seed in the west has. New Orleans jumped out to 11-4 start. Anthony Davis hit two wide open shots from top of the key. Golden State hit two threes to make it 11-10, the first by Draymond Green and the second by Steph Curry. New Orleans missed some early open lay ups. Nerves were clearly an issue. Eric Gordon hit first three threes. He had a great night, finishing with 23 points. The Pelicans went on a four minute 12-0 run at end of first quarter. The Warriors' reliance on the outside shot is evident. The early part of this game confirmed my fear that they cannot sustain this style for an entire playoff run. Bogut is a solid big man, but he is basically the only one they have. Festus Ezili is the basically the backup center. Draymond Green is a SF, but he was guarding Anthony Davis for much of the night. The Pelicans finished with a points in the paint advantage, despite the loss. In beginning of second quarter, great bench play by Leandro Barbosa and Mareese Speights kept the Warriors close. Speights barely played in game 1. It was amazing to see Barbosa still playing at such a high level. HE finished with 12 points in 15 minutes. PG Norris Cole was great for Pelican bench. He was 4-7 to start. Despite being young, he has more playoff experience than the rest of the team due to his time with Miami. Golden State went on two minute 17-5 run at end of second, led by previously silent Klay Thompson. He would be huge down the stretch, and ended up with an ultra efficient 26 point night on 11-17 shooting. Although Pelicans have size advantage, a big lineup hindered ability to defined the perimeter. The Warriors' big men create by getting to the middle of the lane and making correct passes, or in the pick and roll when Curry is being doubled. It always seems either Curry or Thompson has an open shot. the Pelicans started the second half with a 7-0 run. Eric Gordon displayed solid defense on Steph Curry. Andre Iguodala got open a few times, but he is not a great three point shooter. The game was tied at 71 at end of third. The Warriors made another run at start of fourth. Anthony Davis kicked up aggressiveness when his team needed him. He could have shot better, but he is a great free throw shooter. Pelican C Omer Asik got some critical rebounds down the stretch. The Pelicans have the ability to play small with Davis at center, or big with him at power forward. This allows for the team to always have the proper lineup for the situation at hand. Golden State finally pulled away in final minute and a half. This was an impressive performance by New Orleans, considering that the Warriors have not lost at home since January. This game was chock full of runs by both teams. The Warriors can shoot the lights out, but they also have lulls. A team like San Antonio or Memphis could slow their pace. The Warriors need to be able to slow down the game when the situation calls for it, and I'm not sure if they can.

Tigers/Yankees/Dodgers

The 2015 MLB season is underway. Although only a week and a half has passed, there are already interesting stories brewing around the league.

Detroit Tigers:


The Detroit Tigers have been one of the best teams in baseball over the last decade, but they have not been able to win a title despite making two trips. They have been known for great hitting and pitching, but lackluster fielding has hurt them in the past. The Tigers led the league in batting average last year (.277), and were second in runs scored (757). The hitting is still stellar, led by current hits leader Miguel Cabrera. The pitching, however, may be problematic. Last year, they allowed 4.01 runs a game (24th in the league). Justin Verlander took a huge step back after his MVP season two years ago, and he's starting this season on the 15-day DL. The Tigers traded for David Price at last years’ deadline, but they lost Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello over the offseason. In his last start, Anibal Sanchez allowed eight hits, five earned runs, and three homers in 6.1 innings. Kyle Lobstein is Verlander's replacement, and he is unproven. This team has been underachieving for many years, so it is hard to say if they will finally get over the hump this year.



New York Yankees:


The Yankees' pitching staff struggled last year. They are switching closers for the second straight year in Dellin Betances, and he has struggled. Masahiro Tanaka was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball last year until he was sidelined with an elbow injury. Tanaka refrained from Tommy John surgery, in line with Japanese culture. Early this season, his velocity is down. He is still pitching decently, but it will be interesting to see how his elbow compares to the numerous pitchers who have had the surgery. With CC Sabathia's evident decline continuing, the team will look to unproven commodities in Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi to shore up the rotation.

The offense has looked better than last year so far. The team never dropped Derek Jeter in the lineup last year, which may have been to their detriment. Their .245 batting average was 20th in the league last year. The average has not spiked yet, but their twelve homers is tied with Baltimore for the league lead. Stephen Drew and Chase Headley have looked solid over the past couple games. Drew could very well become the everyday shortstop, since Didi Gregorius' first week as a Yankee was marred by baserunning blunders. Jacoby Ellsbury was a bright spot for this offense last year, and he has been so far this year too. He is batting. 296, although he amazingly does not have a homerun or RBI yet. They Yankees are not used to being a middle of the road team, but they should be better than last year.



LA Dodgers:


The Dodgers traded longtime outfielder Matt Kemp to the Padres for catcher Yasmani Grandal, with rookie Joc Pederson waiting in the wings. They also completely overhauled their middle infield. They got rid of Hanley Ramirez and Dee Gordon, and replaced them with Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick. These are huge moves considering that the Dodgers were a legitimate contender last year, but they are trying to improve on defense. The Dodgers hit for a .265 average last year, which was third in the league. The offense will be fine most likely, because Adrian Gonzales and Yasiel Puig are two of the most dynamic hitters in baseball. After roughly a week, Gonzalez is hitting .556 with five homers and seven RBIs. Offense is big for this team, because they do not have stellar pitching. Clayton Kershaw is the reigning Cy Young winner, and Zack Greinke is a great nimbler two, but the rotation drops off after that. Hyun-Jin Ryu did a good job as the third starter last year, but he is starting the season on the DL with a shoulder injury. The front office clearly felt a new approach was necessary, but it will be interesting to see if the team loses too much offense.

Final Four 2015

This exciting season of college basketball is almost over, with only three games remaining. These are the final four matchups.

Kentucky vs Wisconsin

This is the matchup everybody has been hoping for, despite that fact that it is not the title game. Wisconsin is widely believed to be the team with the best chance to beat Kentucky. Some may have believed Kentucky was invincible, but their narrow escape against Notre Dame proves otherwise. Notre Dame’s ability to score took Kentucky off guard, but the Cats rallied in the end to win a close game. This is a challenge Kentucky had not faced all year. This is the very reason Wisconsin has a real chance to win. They possess the ability to score as well, but they are also tall. The average height of the Badgers’ starting five is 6’7”, while the Wildcats’ is 6’9.
Wisconsin forward Sam Dekker has become a star during this tournament, highlighted by his 5 for 6 three-point performance against Arizona. Dekker is averaging 13.9 ppg and 5.5 rpg for the season. He has been overshadowed by the brilliance of C Frank Kaminsky, who is averaging 18.7 ppg, 8 rpg, and 2.7 apg. Dekker is 6’9”, making him almost impossible to guard. Wisconsin has all the ability, and I believe they will win if they play to the best of their ability. They beat Arizona pretty easily, despite trailing at halftime. Kentucky is the better team, but they may be burnt out at this point. Whoever wins this game will win the title, because this side of the bracket is more talented than the other.

Duke vs Michigan St.

This game has a bit of a David vs. Goliath type of feel to it. Duke is a one seed who many believe to be the third best team behind Kentucky and Wisconsin. Michigan State is an overachieving team who lost its two best players from a year ago to the NBA. (Adreian Payne and Gary Harris) Travis Trice has shown stellar leadership, evident by his intelligent point guard play. Denzel Valentine’s ability to hit outside shots helps stretch the defense. I correctly predicted that coaching would get the Spartans over the hump. In their last two games against Oklahoma and Louisville, the team made significant halftime adjustments. They turned around the first half rebound deficit against Oklahoma, and came back against Louisville despite trailing by eight at the half.
The three freshmen on Duke have been stellar. Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, and Justise Winslow. The three totaled 40 points in the Elite Eight against Gonzaga, and Okafor has been particularly dominant down low. The team combines the infusion of youth with veteran leadership. Coach K is one of the few people whose coaching acumen can compete with that of Tom Izzo. This game will go down to the wire, but Duke wins close in the end.

March Madness 2015

Like always, March Madness has been extremely captivating. The first round was characterized by upsets, but the cream is rising to the top now that the Sweet Sixteen is here. The eight Sweet Sixteen matchups are:

    •    (1) Kentucky vs (5) West Virginia
    •    (3) Notre Dame vs (7) Wichita St.
    •    (1) Wisconsin vs (4) North Carolina
    •    (2) Arizona vs (6) Xavier
    •    (4) Louisville vs (8) N.C. State
    •    (3) Oklahoma vs (7) Michigan St.
    •    (1) Duke vs (5) Utah
    •    (2) Gonzaga vs (11) UCLA

For the record, I believe four of these games will be blowouts: Duke over Utah, Gonzaga over UCLA, Louisville over N.C. State, and Arizona over Xavier. The other four will be close. UCLA was not expected to make the tournament at all, and they have not looked that impressive in their first two games. Although Gonzaga should beat them, they will be out of the tourney pretty soon. In Gonzaga’s entire history, the have never reached the Final Four (they have made the tournament 18 times).

I admit that I do not understand nor agree with the way teams are seeded. There is a six seed, two seven seeds, an eight seed, and an eleven seed remaining. It is a joke that Michigan St. and Wichita St. were both seeded so low, considering their recent tournament success. Wichita St. made the tourney four straight years, made a Final Four in 2013, and were a one-seed last year. Michigan St. has made the Sweet Sixteen seven of the last eight years. On the flip side, Gonzaga and Notre Dame were seeded well despite having no past tournament success whatsoever. I usually do not care much about seeding, but it matters when a team like Virginia has to play Michigan St. in the second round.

The most controversial call thus far in the tourney was clearly the goaltending call on SMU against UCLA. Louisville forward Yanick Moreira went up to grab a rebound on an attempted three by UCLA’s Bryce Alford. The shot was clearly off line, but it was also inches away from the rim when Moreira touched it. Although he took responsibility for the mistake, Moreira is still the one most responsible for the call. The frustrating part is how that he was clearly trying to get a rebound. The referees have been widely criticized, but I understand how that call can be made in the moment. This does not mean, however, that the play should not be reviewable. I hope this rule gets changed soon.

Their time in the tournament was short lived, but fourteen seed Georgia State and their head coach Ron Hunter captivated the country when they upset third seeded Baylor in the first round. His son R.J., the star guard on the team, scored 12 of the teams 13 points. He then proceeded to hit a deep three with 2.7 seconds left win the game. Hunter fell off of his stool, which he was sitting on because he tore his Achilles celebrating their conference title a year ago. The emotion coach Hunter showed was pure because he got to spend it with his son. Although they lost their next game, is still may be the lasting memory from the tournament so far.

(1) Kentucky vs (5) West Virginia

Although they have not played top competition yet, it is obvious that Kentucky is the class of college basketball. I believe that undefeated regular season teams will inevitably lose in the tournament, but this team is different than others. Their depth and length are unmatched. It looked like Cincinnati had a chance early against them in the round of 32, but Kentucky’s depth shone through. The game was still close with about six minutes left in the first half, but Kentucky would eventually run away. While Cincy looked exhausted, Kentucky subbed in a whole new team. This kind of depth is why the Cats are the biggest favorite in the tourney, but they have a huge challenge in their next game. Bob Huggins is 8-2 lifetime against John Calipari. This includes West Virginia eliminating a John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins led Kentucky team in the Final Four in 2010. Huggins is a well-known innovator of the 1-3-1 zone defense. Due to lack of success over the last 2 years, however, he has implemented full court pressing and trapping. This puts an unbelievable amount of pressure on opposing guards, as evident in their recent tournament win against Maryland. In that game, West Virginia forced Maryland to turn the ball over 23 times, a season high. For Kentucky, freshman guard Devon Booker and the Harrison twins will either make or break the game. Pressing is West Virginia’s best chance to win, but there is a downside as well. Kentucky is very long and fast, meaning they will have many opportunities for transition points. The key for Kentucky is their two bigs, Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. They can run the floor as well as any other big men in the country. Kentucky is too complete, and West Virginia will falter late despite playing extremely well. I believe a strategy does exist to beat Kentucky, but it is almost impossible for a team to keep up with them for 40 minutes.

(3) Notre Dame vs (7) Wichita St.

Harkening back to my rant about seeding, this is a game where the better seed winning would feel like an upset. Wichita St. put forth one of the most impressive tournament performances thus far, when the dismantled Kansas 78-65. They held Kansas to 35% shooting, and they took control when they ended the first half on a 13-2 run. All five Wichita St. starters had double-digit points. It is a known fact that Kansas has been avoiding playing the in-state Shockers, so the way that game ended was rather satisfying. One might think the emotional high would have a negative impact moving forward, but Wichita St. is too experienced to let that happen. Coach Gregg Marshall has done a great job of keeping his team level headed during their tournament runs. Notre Dame is dealing with an emotional time as well. Coach Mike Brey lost his mother before their last game against Butler, which they won 67-64 in overtime. Brey decided to coach the game, and did not tell anyone until after the fact. Steve Vasturia scored 20 points and Jerian Grant dropped 16 against Butler. Much like Wichita St., they beat an in-state rival to get here. This is the first trip to the Sweet Sixteen for the Irish since 2003. ND senior guard Pat Connaughton made a game-saving block on Bulter’s Kellen Dunham. The block occurred with one second left in regulation. Connaughton is one of the only two-sport athletes left in the tournament. Also a baseball pitcher, Connaughton was drafted in the fourth round by the Baltimore Orioles last year. The emotions of wanting to win for coach and the reputation of the program will be strong for the Irish, and this game will be very competitive. Notre Dame has been playing a gritty brand of basketball, but they are simply not as good as the Shockers. The game will be close in the first half, but Wichita St. pulls away in the second.

(1) Wisconsin vs (4) North Carolina

The biggest upset I predicted on my bracket was Harvard over North Carolina in the first round, which was a missed buzzer-beater away from coming true. I have not been impressed by UNC’s effort thus far. They clearly have talent, but they have looked awful during some games. They have been playing better as of late; meaning this game against Wisconsin will likely be very close. Against Arkansas, UNC coach Roy Williams used an extremely small lineup that went on a 17-4 run. This exemplifies his coaching prowess, showing his ability to outsmart the opposing coach by coming up with perfect situational lineups. Wisconsin has been widely followed all year, with many pundits feeling they are the best team in the country outside of Kentucky. Much of this is due to their star Frank Kaminsky. The 6’11” power forward is averaging 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He is an extremely versatile scorer, with the ability to score from the inside or outside. Desmond Hubert, North Carolina’s 6-10 star defender, has been out for a while due to knee surgery. Kennedy Meeks, the 6’9” forward who is averaging 11.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, is doubtful with a sprained knee. Kaminsky is already a handful for anyone, especially a team without its frontcourt at full strength.

(3) Oklahoma vs (7) Michigan St.

This game feels a lot like Wichita St.-Notre Dame, with the worse seed being more proven. As I stated before, Michigan St. has been to the Sweet Sixteen seven of the last eight years. Coach Tom Izzo has put himself in the class of elite coaches, and the way his team plays reflects that. They were not particularly talented this year compared to others, evident by the losing Adreian Payne to the NBA. The Spartans had eleven losses this year. These included being swept by Wisconsin, and bad losses to Nebraska and Texas Southern. The rhetoric all year from MSU fans is that Izzo-coached teams play better at the end of the season. This has surely been the case so far. The Spartans played a beautiful game against Virginia, a team that went 29-3 in the regular season. Virginia is known for their staggering defense, so the Spartans beat them at their own game. They won with their own defense, and they made Virginia very uncomfortable early. Izzo’s presence was evident, based on the game plan and the fearless attitude of the team. Oklahoma returned four starters from last year (Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, Jordan Woodard, and Ryan Spangler). This is the fourth team Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger has taken to the Sweet Sixteen or further, making him the only person in history to do so.  The others were Kansas State (1988 Elite Eight), Florida (1994 Final Four), and UNLV (2007 Sweet 16). Oklahoma’s frontcourt of Spangler and Thomas are great defensively, which will present a challenge to an undersized Spartan team. The team has vastly improved defensively this year. This game will present two contrasting styles, and it is hard to pick a winner. I believe the Spartans move on, but I would not be surprised if this game ends in a buzzer-beater.

Beyond the current round, Wisconsin and Duke have the best chance to beat Kentucky. If the Wildcats can defeat the tough-minded WVU Mountaineers, it will make them more battle-tested moving forward. There is still much excitement left in the tourney, but I’m picking Kentucky to win it all like everyone else.

NFL Offseason 2015

NFL free agency is always exciting, but this year was more especially eventful. There were two many moves to write about in one article, but I will examine the four biggest signings/trades.

Ndamukong Suh (MIA: six years, $114 million, $60 million guaranteed)
Ndamukong Suh had been an elite defensive lineman for Detroit, but his recent contract was shocking to say the least. The contract Suh signed with the Dolphins is hard to fathom, especially considering he is not a quarterback. In is unprecedented for a defensive tackle to get $60 million guaranteed, but this shows that teams need to overspend to get the players they want. Suh is the closest thing to a modern day Reggie White. This signing illustrates the new defensive trend in the NFL. The success of the Seahawks, and New England’s refocus on defense, has changed the way teams are building now. The slew of defensive head coaches hired this offseason suggests that as well. A team like Miami probably feels like they have a better chance to slow opposing offenses rather than match them. This move will completely ruin the team’s cap in the next couple years, however. Some of the effects have already been seen, evident by losing DT Jared Odrick to Jacksonville and trading WR Mike Wallace to Minnesota. GM Mike Tannenbaum is very aggressive, something he showed when he was with the New York Jets. Overthecap.com’s Jason Fitzgerald says that Suh’s contract will only count for $6 million against the cap this season, but it will count for $21.9 from 2016 to 2018. Fitzgerald also stated that the team used the same contract structure the to sign Mike Wallace. He had a cap hit of $3.25 million in the first year and a $17.25 million hit in his second. It is inconceivable they will keep Suh for the life of the deal. In two years they will either restructure his deal, or trade him like the Saints did with Jimmy Graham. They almost have to. They must think they can win now and will be able to convince Suh to play for less in the future.

Darrelle Revis (NYJ: five years, $70 million, $40 million guaranteed)

New York Jets ex-GM John Idzik was widely criticized for failing to spend money last year, despite having plenty of cap room. Now with a new GM and a new attitude from owner Woody Johnson, the Jets have returned to their aggressive ways. They acquired WR Bradon Marshall from Chicago for a fifth round pick and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for a seventh. They also added DBs Buster Skrine, Antonio Cromartie, and Marcus Gilchrist in free agency. Nothing they did, however, was nearly as significant as reuniting with Darrelle Revis. Revis is undeniably a top three corner in the NFL. His presence automatically makes a team better. Revis famously left New York for Tampa Bay on bad terms two years ago, stemming from his numerous contract holdouts. It appears that his recent Super Bowl victory with the Pats, as well as the Jets being desperate, help mend the wounds. Games are not won on paper, but the Jets appear to be much better. As I said before, the Revis signing was one of many aimed at helping the secondary. The last two Super Bowl champs had stellar defensive backs, so I expect to see more teams follow that trend. The Jets also re-signed MLB David Harris, so the defense will be even better than last year. If the offense can come along, this team will be a playoff contender this year.

Jimmy Graham (traded from NO to SEA)

As I mentioned before, the salary cap can be a killer evidently. The Saints spent like drunken sailors over the last few years, and had minimal results to show for it. Their reckless ways have forced them to make some tough decisions, and getting rid of TE Jimmy Graham was the toughest so far. In five years, Graham has 4752 yards and 51 touchdowns, as well as three Pro Bowl appearances. For those who dislike the Seahawks for their eternal trash talking, seeing them lose the Super Bowl in heartbreaking fashion was somewhat entertaining. With that said, the team realized the needed to get better to stay at the top of the league. The obvious place to start was the mediocre passing game, which was ranked 27th in the league last year. Graham will not come anywhere near replicating the type of stats he was accustomed to in New Orleans, but his impact will be immense. Seattle has a great defense, so any offense they can add will help. I never expected them to make a move this big, so it should help counteract some of the players they lost in free agency over the last two years. The big question is how Seattle will keep everyone when they have to pay QB Russell Wilson soon. I would not be surprised is Graham gets moved in a couple years. The team may only see him as a short-term aid to winning another title.


The Eagles

Outside of the San Francisco 49ers, the Philadelphia Eagles have had the busiest offseason in the league. They traded RB LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for third year LB Kiko Alonso, and they acquired QB Sam Bradford for their own quarterback Nick Foles. They signed DeMarco Murray, the reigning rushing champ, from Dallas to replace McCoy. They also signed ex-Seattle cornerbacks Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond III. The Eagles have been the most exciting team in the league since Chip Kelly took over, but they have done very little in the playoffs. They looked like they might end up like the Eagles of the mid-2000s, a consistently successful team who cannot go all the way. These moves, while drastic, could be beneficial in the long run. Kelly realized he needed to improve his defense to be a real contender. Philly had a good d-line, but their linebackers and secondary were suspect. Alonso missed all of last year with a knee injury, but his rookie season was amazing. The 24-year-old Alonso tallied 159 tackles, two sacks, four interceptions, four pass deflections, four interceptions, and a forced fumble as a rookie in 2013. McCoy was a fan favorite, but this may have been the best move the team made. Maxwell will make $63 over six years, with $25.5 guaranteed. The Thurmond deal is for one year, $3.25. Although the Maxwell deal is a lot, it will cost very little against the cap after two seasons. The Murray signing is the only questionable one. His contract is for $40 million over five years, with $21 guaranteed. He is 27 and injury prone. This will hurt them down the road, but is a good pickup for the short term.

Is the NFL Combine Overemphasized?

The NFL Draft is still a couple months away, but the NFL Combine is in full swing. The combine is where players have their athleticism measured through a series of workouts. Instead of writing anything about the data coming out of the combine, I chose to tear down the concept in general. Film study used to be the most valued tool in prospect scouting, but guys with stopwatches have taken over. Good teams know better. Constantly changing personnel among some teams, however, can force teams to hire inexperienced decision makers. The combine makes scouts giddy, but hopefully the trend shifts soon.

A prime example of why the combine is overstated is current Minnesota Vikings starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. In the combine last year, he opted not to participate in the 40-yard dash or the throwing drills. It is unknown why he took this risk, but his absence from these drills turned a lot of teams off. What made matters worse is that he had a horrible pro day as well beforehand. Bridgewater had been considered the top quarterback prospect entering his last year at Louisville. He was said to have great leadership qualities and very high football I.Q., but his stock started to nosedive after the season when scouts started analyzing his workouts. He fell all the way Minnesota at 32; ten picks after the Cleveland Browns selected Johnny Manziel. While Bridgewater had a solid season and began to establish himself as a leader, Manziel’s rookie season was marred by disappointment and alcohol abuse. Anyone with a brain should have known Bridgewater was a better prospect than Manziel all along.

The most noteworthy precautionary tale of falling in love with combine performance is former Eagles defensive end Mike Mamula, the seventh overall pick in the 1995 draft. He played college ball at Boston College, and recorded 13 sacks as a senior. Going into the draft, he was projected as a third round pick due to lack of size and athleticism. Realizing this, Mamula specifically worked on workouts that he would see in the combine. He practiced workouts such as the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and bench press. Having practiced these specific drills numerous times, he had an all-time great combine. He recorded a stellar 4.58 time in the 40-yard dash, he lifted 225 pounds 28 times, and his vertical jump was 38.5 inches. His draft stock skyrocketed, and he was picked seventh (the Eagles traded up from twelfth). He was picked before Hall of Famer Warren Sapp. Mamula had a decent five-year career, but he did not come close to justifying such a high selection.

The combine does serve a purpose, but certain exercises should be position-specific. A lineman should not have to run the 40. A defensive back should not have to do the bench press. A quarterback should be allowed to run the 40 if speed is part of his game, but it should not be a requirement. I personally would allow prospects to choose which workouts they want to do. In the end of the day, the combine has become a crutch for teams who are unaware of how to build properly. Film study will always be the most important tool in evaluating talent. I care much more about how my middle linebacker sees the field and takes angles, rather than how fast his 40 is. Every year teams draft fast receivers and defensive backs that do not understand the game. Film allows one to study player’s instincts on the field, and how a player can be incorporated into a system.

The fact that Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston is still slated to go number one to Tampa Bay implies a change in thought, since Winston looked terrible in the drills. His high football I.Q. is coming across in interviews, which is keeping his stock high. The Bucs’ love affair with Winston could also be due to the appeal of selling a home state kid, much like Jacksonville drafting Blake Bortles from UCF third last year. The combine is overhyped because of the media coverage it gets. It is shown all over NFL Network for hours on end, a stark contrast to a short time ago where it got no media coverage. The draft being pushed back a month was clearly meant to draw more eyes. The combine gets shown on television to boost ratings, but teams are putting too much stock into who has better numbers. Certain GM’s are starting to get away from this analytics-centric way of thinking. If a slew of great players who are not top end athletes come along, then every team will change their thought process. Like I said before, the tape does not lie. 

Carmelo-no

As of Tuesday, the Knicks have a 10-42 record. They got off to the worst start in franchise history earlier in the year. The team has sorely underachieved ever since winning two titles in the early seventies. Despite improvement a few years ago, the team is as bad as ever, and the owner is primarily to blame.

It was extremely puzzling when the Knicks signed Carmelo Anthony to a five-year deal for $124 million over the offseason. The max deal would have been worth $129 million. Not only did the Knicks give Anthony a max deal in essence, but it included an uncommon no trade clause. He is averaging 24.2 points per game, but only 3.1 assists. He does not make his teammates better, and the no trade clause means the team is stuck with him as long as he wants to be there. This is ridiculous, since Carmelo does not appear to be a foundational player. Once again, the Knicks shoot themselves in the foot by offering someone an unreasonable contract.

Owner James Dolan has built up a reputation for being far too meddlesome with the team for years now. Dolan has a pattern of overspending for a coach/GM, stepping on his toes, firing him, and then paying him copious amounts of money afterward. Phil Jackson signed a contract worth nearly $12 million a year. Jackson will get at least three years to turn the team around, but Dolan is still part of the decision making process to a degree. It cannot be proven, but I firmly believe Dolan made Jackson resign Carmelo. Jackson made a strong stance about Anthony making sacrifices when he first took over, but his tune changed rather abruptly. Jackson also wanted Steve Kerr to be his coach, but Dolan lowballed the offer. Derek Fisher has struggled, but neither he nor Jackson is the problem right now.

It was obvious at the end of last year that a transformation was necessary. Phil has made two rebuilding moves in trading Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton to Dallas, as well as sending J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert to Cleveland. I cannot blame Phil for getting rid of those guys, since they all needed to leave New York to find new life. I am confused that Jackson could now extract a single first round pick in these trades, especially since he did not get one legitimate player back. Letting Carmelo walk would have went in line with the rebuild perfectly. Keeping him shows a lack of a real plan by everyone involved.

If it is true that Melo has been sitting out games so he can be healthy for the All-Star Game, then he is done being a real star in the league. WFAN’s Craig Carton has said all year that Melo would make sure he was healthy for the London and All-Star games, and then would shut it down after. We will see if this true pretty soon, but I almost expect it. All Anthony has talked about over the last year is his brand or being an ambassador for New York. He should be threatening his teammates because he is livid at how bad they are. He does not hold teammates or himself accountable the way an alleged superstar should.

James Dolan made headlines for the wrong reasons earlier in the week. He responded to an unsavory email, writing that the initiator is an alcoholic and should go root for the Nets. This circumstance would be bad at any time, but it is magnified by how awful the product is. It is shocking that Dolan would even acknowledge this email, showing that he is incapable of dealing with his current reality. There is no solution in sight if Dolan continues his intrusive ways. This upcoming offseason is critical for Phil Jackson, because the team will have a ton of cap space for the first time in awhile. It is a small positive that they signed ex D-Leaguers Langston Galloway and Lance Thomas for the rest of the year. The only way Jackson can assemble the roster he wants is if Dolan gives him 100% control. Even though that is happening theoretically, lets hope it does for real.

Super Bowl XLIV

Super Bowl XLIV is here, and the Patriots’ ball scandal has dominated the airwaves over the last two weeks. Both teams are hard to like. The perception of this game is that it features callous cheaters against bombastic trash talkers. I personally think deflate gate is being overblown, since it takes far more than a deflated ball to win a playoff game by 38. All of this is ultimately great for the league, because it guarantees maximum viewership. Unfortunately, the Pats’ recent performance is being overshadowed. Tom Brady has been stellar in the playoffs, having thrown six touchdowns two games. Seattle is dominant most of the time, but they appear human now. Everyone saw how the Packers did everything imaginable to lose a game they had in the bag. Seattle may veil this outcome as clutch, but not me. Their weaknesses were exposed, and the Pats are a better all around team than the Packers. The Patriots' run defense was ranked ninth in the league. (Green Bay was ranked 23^rd)

Location may favor Seattle. Seattle fans filled MetLife Stadium last year, and Arizona is much closer than New Jersey. The game will not play out like last year, however. The indoor stadium and warm weather will favor the Patriot passing game, unlike what the Broncos faced a year ago. New England needs to be crisp early. Seattle’s 272.4 ypg allowed is first in the NFL, and their 17 ppg allowed is second. Seattle has a tendency to have slow starts offensively, but explode late. Two of Seattle’s best defensive backs (Sherman and Thomas) are not 100 percent. Green Bay was scared to throw at Sherman for a second time, but the Pats will be different. He does have two picks in the playoffs, however, so the respect is warranted. They will go after Sherman a few times, but Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski will be the most important player in the game.

Seattle’s linebackers will have to figure out a way to slow him down. Outside linebackers Bruce Irvin and K.J. Wright will have the biggest responsibility, but Seattle will show multiple defensive looks. If New England puts up big passing numbers, the yards will likely come inside as opposed to outside. This means safety Kam Chancellor will be critical as well. Seattle allowed a mere 41.4 yards per game to tight ends. (5^th in the league) This is impressive, considering that teams do not attack their outside corners at a high rate. They did, however, allow tight ends to score 11 touchdowns. Gronk will not put up crazy yards, but he could make all the difference in the red zone.

Whoever can establish the running game first will have the edge. Both teams like to control the clock with the running game. This is why Russell Wilson is so important. He and Marshawn Lynch complement each other perfectly in the running game. Lynch does the dirty work up the middle, while Wilson can run off tackle. 

New England is hoping for a repeat performance by LeGarrette Blount, who ran for. The Pats’ formula will be to control the clock by running run the ball. Unlike other teams, they will actually score a few touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. They will pull ahead early, and hold on to win. New England wins 24-21.

Photos from bleacherreport.com

NFL Conference Championship Games

The NFL Conference Championships are here, and four teams are looking to punch their tickets to the Super Bowl XLIX in Arizona. Here is my analysis and predictions.

Green Bay Packers (12-4) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4):

The NFC Championship Game will feature the ultimate battle of offense versus defense. Green Bay is sixth in total offense, and Seattle is first in total defense. Aaron Rodgers had a great game against Dallas, which was magnified by the calf injury he was battling. 

He was visibly hobbled, evident by the fact that he chose not to run in situations where he would normally do so. Although I believe he is the best quarterback in football, the physicality of Seattle’s defense will be too much to handle. He should be a little healthier, but the calf will likely not be 100%. Rodgers infamously refused to throw at Seattle’s top cornerback in week 1 (a 36-16 loss), but he has said he will not do the same this week. Rodgers will have to be perfect to best Seattle’s stellar secondary, as well as their front seven led by Michael Bennett, Bruce Irvin, and Cliff Avril. Safety Kam Chancellor has been playing like the best defensive player in the league as of late. 

In the opener against Seattle, Packer RB Eddie Lacy only ran for 34 yards on 12 carries. Since week 12, however, Lacy has run for at least 98 yards in every game except one. He struggled in general early in the season, but he has been playing exceptionally well lately. He will be the x-factor in this game for Green Bay. If they cannot run the ball effectively, the have no chance against the defending champs.

Seattle’s offense racked up 398 yards in the opener, but they also had Percy Harvin at the time. Harvin had 11 touches for 100 yards. Seattle’s 375.8 ypg are ninth in the league, which can be attributed to their running game. Their 203.1 pass ypg is 27^th in the league, but their 172.6 rushing ypg is first. Their 24.6 points per game are tenth in the NFL. Although their offense is not stellar, it is a great complement to the defense. They are third in the league in time of possession, meaning that they can effectively control the clock. Russell Wilson does not throw much, but he throws when necessary. Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, and Luke Willson have been integral to the passing game. RB Marshawn Lynch had another great year, finishing fourth in the league with 1306 rushing yards (81.6 ypg).

The Packers’ run defense was ranked a subpar 20^th. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray ran for 123 yards on 25 carries (4.9 ypc) against Green Bay in the Divisional Round. Their run defense went from 24^th to 20^th after switching Clay Matthews from outside linebacker to inside linebacker. The Packers have also notably struggled against the zone-read, which is a huge part of Seattle’s offense.

Green Bay looked impressive against Dallas, but Seattle is on an entirely different level. The fact that the game is in Seattle will make it almost impossible for the Packers. The game will be relatively low scoring, but Seattle will maintain a two score lead for most of the game. Seattle will not run away with it, but Green Bay will never really have a chance. Seattle wins 31-21.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at New England Patriots (12-4):

If you are a fan of quarterback play, then the AFC Championship Game should be a thriller. Tom Brady is coming to the end of a Hall of Fame, career, and Andrew Luck is at the beginning of one. The Patriots came back from 14-point deficits twice to beat the Ravens 35-31. The Pats beat the Colts 42-20 week 11 in Indianapolis. Brady is 3-0 against Andrew Luck. Each Patriot win was by at least 21, and Luck has thrown six touchdowns and eight picks in those games. In Week 11, Patriots running back Jonas Gray ran for 201 yards and four touchdowns of 37 carries. Gray did not play against the Ravens, and the Patriots only had 14 rushing yards on 13 carries. 

Brady played very well, completing 66 percent of his passes for 367 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. The fact that this game is in Foxborough is huge for the Pats. Brady has thrown for 19 touchdowns and three interceptions at home. New England’s only home loss came in the last week of the season, when the team had already clinched the No.1 seed in the playoffs. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski finished with seven catches for 108 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore. Whether or not the Colts can cover him will be huge.

Luck has become one of the best quarterbacks in football since being the #1 overall pick in 2012. In the regular season, he threw for 4,671 yards and led the league with 40 touchdowns. The Colts scored 28.6 points per game this season with Luck at the helm. 

Although they won their last two games, the Colts’ offense did not look overly impressive. In their last six games, they have failed to crack 27 points. In those games, Luck cracked 300-yards passing only once. Even in the playoff win over the Denver, Luck threw two picks. Luck is great, but he could use some help from the running game. The Colts’ 100.8 rushing ypg is 22^nd in the league. As fantastic as Luck is, he is asked to do more than any other quarterback in the league. RB Dan Herron has looked good lately, but it is hard to predict what he will do game-to-game. The Colts clearly are not comfortable running the ball, since Luck throws the ball often in running situations.

Indy’s defense stopped Denver’s second ranked scoring offense, despite a mere ranking of 19th in the regular season. Peyton Manning only threw for 211 passing yards on 46 attempts. It was revealed that Manning was playing with a lingering quad injury, so the outcome may have been skewed. All five of Indianapolis’ regular season losses came against top seven scoring offenses, including New England. The Colts allowed an average of 39.2 points per game in those losses.

Indy impressed the football world when they upset Denver, but this game will be different. The Patriots have the advantage in coaching and experience, which will be the difference. The game will be close, but the Pats will prevail. New England wins 42-35.

Photos from bleacherreport.com