This exciting season of college basketball is almost over, with only three games remaining. These are the final four matchups.
Kentucky vs Wisconsin
This is the matchup everybody has been hoping for, despite that fact that it is not the title game. Wisconsin is widely believed to be the team with the best chance to beat Kentucky. Some may have believed Kentucky was invincible, but their narrow escape against Notre Dame proves otherwise. Notre Dame’s ability to score took Kentucky off guard, but the Cats rallied in the end to win a close game. This is a challenge Kentucky had not faced all year. This is the very reason Wisconsin has a real chance to win. They possess the ability to score as well, but they are also tall. The average height of the Badgers’ starting five is 6’7”, while the Wildcats’ is 6’9.
Wisconsin forward Sam Dekker has become a star during this tournament, highlighted by his 5 for 6 three-point performance against Arizona. Dekker is averaging 13.9 ppg and 5.5 rpg for the season. He has been overshadowed by the brilliance of C Frank Kaminsky, who is averaging 18.7 ppg, 8 rpg, and 2.7 apg. Dekker is 6’9”, making him almost impossible to guard. Wisconsin has all the ability, and I believe they will win if they play to the best of their ability. They beat Arizona pretty easily, despite trailing at halftime. Kentucky is the better team, but they may be burnt out at this point. Whoever wins this game will win the title, because this side of the bracket is more talented than the other.
Duke vs Michigan St.
This game has a bit of a David vs. Goliath type of feel to it. Duke is a one seed who many believe to be the third best team behind Kentucky and Wisconsin. Michigan State is an overachieving team who lost its two best players from a year ago to the NBA. (Adreian Payne and Gary Harris) Travis Trice has shown stellar leadership, evident by his intelligent point guard play. Denzel Valentine’s ability to hit outside shots helps stretch the defense. I correctly predicted that coaching would get the Spartans over the hump. In their last two games against Oklahoma and Louisville, the team made significant halftime adjustments. They turned around the first half rebound deficit against Oklahoma, and came back against Louisville despite trailing by eight at the half.
The three freshmen on Duke have been stellar. Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones, and Justise Winslow. The three totaled 40 points in the Elite Eight against Gonzaga, and Okafor has been particularly dominant down low. The team combines the infusion of youth with veteran leadership. Coach K is one of the few people whose coaching acumen can compete with that of Tom Izzo. This game will go down to the wire, but Duke wins close in the end.
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
March Madness 2015
Like always, March Madness has been extremely captivating. The first round was characterized by upsets, but the cream is rising to the top now that the Sweet Sixteen is here. The eight Sweet Sixteen matchups are:
• (1) Kentucky vs (5) West Virginia
• (3) Notre Dame vs (7) Wichita St.
• (1) Wisconsin vs (4) North Carolina
• (2) Arizona vs (6) Xavier
• (4) Louisville vs (8) N.C. State
• (3) Oklahoma vs (7) Michigan St.
• (1) Duke vs (5) Utah
• (2) Gonzaga vs (11) UCLA
For the record, I believe four of these games will be blowouts: Duke over Utah, Gonzaga over UCLA, Louisville over N.C. State, and Arizona over Xavier. The other four will be close. UCLA was not expected to make the tournament at all, and they have not looked that impressive in their first two games. Although Gonzaga should beat them, they will be out of the tourney pretty soon. In Gonzaga’s entire history, the have never reached the Final Four (they have made the tournament 18 times).
I admit that I do not understand nor agree with the way teams are seeded. There is a six seed, two seven seeds, an eight seed, and an eleven seed remaining. It is a joke that Michigan St. and Wichita St. were both seeded so low, considering their recent tournament success. Wichita St. made the tourney four straight years, made a Final Four in 2013, and were a one-seed last year. Michigan St. has made the Sweet Sixteen seven of the last eight years. On the flip side, Gonzaga and Notre Dame were seeded well despite having no past tournament success whatsoever. I usually do not care much about seeding, but it matters when a team like Virginia has to play Michigan St. in the second round.
The most controversial call thus far in the tourney was clearly the goaltending call on SMU against UCLA. Louisville forward Yanick Moreira went up to grab a rebound on an attempted three by UCLA’s Bryce Alford. The shot was clearly off line, but it was also inches away from the rim when Moreira touched it. Although he took responsibility for the mistake, Moreira is still the one most responsible for the call. The frustrating part is how that he was clearly trying to get a rebound. The referees have been widely criticized, but I understand how that call can be made in the moment. This does not mean, however, that the play should not be reviewable. I hope this rule gets changed soon.
Their time in the tournament was short lived, but fourteen seed Georgia State and their head coach Ron Hunter captivated the country when they upset third seeded Baylor in the first round. His son R.J., the star guard on the team, scored 12 of the teams 13 points. He then proceeded to hit a deep three with 2.7 seconds left win the game. Hunter fell off of his stool, which he was sitting on because he tore his Achilles celebrating their conference title a year ago. The emotion coach Hunter showed was pure because he got to spend it with his son. Although they lost their next game, is still may be the lasting memory from the tournament so far.
(1) Kentucky vs (5) West Virginia
Although they have not played top competition yet, it is obvious that Kentucky is the class of college basketball. I believe that undefeated regular season teams will inevitably lose in the tournament, but this team is different than others. Their depth and length are unmatched. It looked like Cincinnati had a chance early against them in the round of 32, but Kentucky’s depth shone through. The game was still close with about six minutes left in the first half, but Kentucky would eventually run away. While Cincy looked exhausted, Kentucky subbed in a whole new team. This kind of depth is why the Cats are the biggest favorite in the tourney, but they have a huge challenge in their next game. Bob Huggins is 8-2 lifetime against John Calipari. This includes West Virginia eliminating a John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins led Kentucky team in the Final Four in 2010. Huggins is a well-known innovator of the 1-3-1 zone defense. Due to lack of success over the last 2 years, however, he has implemented full court pressing and trapping. This puts an unbelievable amount of pressure on opposing guards, as evident in their recent tournament win against Maryland. In that game, West Virginia forced Maryland to turn the ball over 23 times, a season high. For Kentucky, freshman guard Devon Booker and the Harrison twins will either make or break the game. Pressing is West Virginia’s best chance to win, but there is a downside as well. Kentucky is very long and fast, meaning they will have many opportunities for transition points. The key for Kentucky is their two bigs, Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. They can run the floor as well as any other big men in the country. Kentucky is too complete, and West Virginia will falter late despite playing extremely well. I believe a strategy does exist to beat Kentucky, but it is almost impossible for a team to keep up with them for 40 minutes.
(3) Notre Dame vs (7) Wichita St.
Harkening back to my rant about seeding, this is a game where the better seed winning would feel like an upset. Wichita St. put forth one of the most impressive tournament performances thus far, when the dismantled Kansas 78-65. They held Kansas to 35% shooting, and they took control when they ended the first half on a 13-2 run. All five Wichita St. starters had double-digit points. It is a known fact that Kansas has been avoiding playing the in-state Shockers, so the way that game ended was rather satisfying. One might think the emotional high would have a negative impact moving forward, but Wichita St. is too experienced to let that happen. Coach Gregg Marshall has done a great job of keeping his team level headed during their tournament runs. Notre Dame is dealing with an emotional time as well. Coach Mike Brey lost his mother before their last game against Butler, which they won 67-64 in overtime. Brey decided to coach the game, and did not tell anyone until after the fact. Steve Vasturia scored 20 points and Jerian Grant dropped 16 against Butler. Much like Wichita St., they beat an in-state rival to get here. This is the first trip to the Sweet Sixteen for the Irish since 2003. ND senior guard Pat Connaughton made a game-saving block on Bulter’s Kellen Dunham. The block occurred with one second left in regulation. Connaughton is one of the only two-sport athletes left in the tournament. Also a baseball pitcher, Connaughton was drafted in the fourth round by the Baltimore Orioles last year. The emotions of wanting to win for coach and the reputation of the program will be strong for the Irish, and this game will be very competitive. Notre Dame has been playing a gritty brand of basketball, but they are simply not as good as the Shockers. The game will be close in the first half, but Wichita St. pulls away in the second.
(1) Wisconsin vs (4) North Carolina
The biggest upset I predicted on my bracket was Harvard over North Carolina in the first round, which was a missed buzzer-beater away from coming true. I have not been impressed by UNC’s effort thus far. They clearly have talent, but they have looked awful during some games. They have been playing better as of late; meaning this game against Wisconsin will likely be very close. Against Arkansas, UNC coach Roy Williams used an extremely small lineup that went on a 17-4 run. This exemplifies his coaching prowess, showing his ability to outsmart the opposing coach by coming up with perfect situational lineups. Wisconsin has been widely followed all year, with many pundits feeling they are the best team in the country outside of Kentucky. Much of this is due to their star Frank Kaminsky. The 6’11” power forward is averaging 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He is an extremely versatile scorer, with the ability to score from the inside or outside. Desmond Hubert, North Carolina’s 6-10 star defender, has been out for a while due to knee surgery. Kennedy Meeks, the 6’9” forward who is averaging 11.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, is doubtful with a sprained knee. Kaminsky is already a handful for anyone, especially a team without its frontcourt at full strength.
(3) Oklahoma vs (7) Michigan St.
This game feels a lot like Wichita St.-Notre Dame, with the worse seed being more proven. As I stated before, Michigan St. has been to the Sweet Sixteen seven of the last eight years. Coach Tom Izzo has put himself in the class of elite coaches, and the way his team plays reflects that. They were not particularly talented this year compared to others, evident by the losing Adreian Payne to the NBA. The Spartans had eleven losses this year. These included being swept by Wisconsin, and bad losses to Nebraska and Texas Southern. The rhetoric all year from MSU fans is that Izzo-coached teams play better at the end of the season. This has surely been the case so far. The Spartans played a beautiful game against Virginia, a team that went 29-3 in the regular season. Virginia is known for their staggering defense, so the Spartans beat them at their own game. They won with their own defense, and they made Virginia very uncomfortable early. Izzo’s presence was evident, based on the game plan and the fearless attitude of the team. Oklahoma returned four starters from last year (Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, Jordan Woodard, and Ryan Spangler). This is the fourth team Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger has taken to the Sweet Sixteen or further, making him the only person in history to do so. The others were Kansas State (1988 Elite Eight), Florida (1994 Final Four), and UNLV (2007 Sweet 16). Oklahoma’s frontcourt of Spangler and Thomas are great defensively, which will present a challenge to an undersized Spartan team. The team has vastly improved defensively this year. This game will present two contrasting styles, and it is hard to pick a winner. I believe the Spartans move on, but I would not be surprised if this game ends in a buzzer-beater.
Beyond the current round, Wisconsin and Duke have the best chance to beat Kentucky. If the Wildcats can defeat the tough-minded WVU Mountaineers, it will make them more battle-tested moving forward. There is still much excitement left in the tourney, but I’m picking Kentucky to win it all like everyone else.
• (1) Kentucky vs (5) West Virginia
• (3) Notre Dame vs (7) Wichita St.
• (1) Wisconsin vs (4) North Carolina
• (2) Arizona vs (6) Xavier
• (4) Louisville vs (8) N.C. State
• (3) Oklahoma vs (7) Michigan St.
• (1) Duke vs (5) Utah
• (2) Gonzaga vs (11) UCLA
For the record, I believe four of these games will be blowouts: Duke over Utah, Gonzaga over UCLA, Louisville over N.C. State, and Arizona over Xavier. The other four will be close. UCLA was not expected to make the tournament at all, and they have not looked that impressive in their first two games. Although Gonzaga should beat them, they will be out of the tourney pretty soon. In Gonzaga’s entire history, the have never reached the Final Four (they have made the tournament 18 times).
I admit that I do not understand nor agree with the way teams are seeded. There is a six seed, two seven seeds, an eight seed, and an eleven seed remaining. It is a joke that Michigan St. and Wichita St. were both seeded so low, considering their recent tournament success. Wichita St. made the tourney four straight years, made a Final Four in 2013, and were a one-seed last year. Michigan St. has made the Sweet Sixteen seven of the last eight years. On the flip side, Gonzaga and Notre Dame were seeded well despite having no past tournament success whatsoever. I usually do not care much about seeding, but it matters when a team like Virginia has to play Michigan St. in the second round.
The most controversial call thus far in the tourney was clearly the goaltending call on SMU against UCLA. Louisville forward Yanick Moreira went up to grab a rebound on an attempted three by UCLA’s Bryce Alford. The shot was clearly off line, but it was also inches away from the rim when Moreira touched it. Although he took responsibility for the mistake, Moreira is still the one most responsible for the call. The frustrating part is how that he was clearly trying to get a rebound. The referees have been widely criticized, but I understand how that call can be made in the moment. This does not mean, however, that the play should not be reviewable. I hope this rule gets changed soon.
Their time in the tournament was short lived, but fourteen seed Georgia State and their head coach Ron Hunter captivated the country when they upset third seeded Baylor in the first round. His son R.J., the star guard on the team, scored 12 of the teams 13 points. He then proceeded to hit a deep three with 2.7 seconds left win the game. Hunter fell off of his stool, which he was sitting on because he tore his Achilles celebrating their conference title a year ago. The emotion coach Hunter showed was pure because he got to spend it with his son. Although they lost their next game, is still may be the lasting memory from the tournament so far.
(1) Kentucky vs (5) West Virginia
Although they have not played top competition yet, it is obvious that Kentucky is the class of college basketball. I believe that undefeated regular season teams will inevitably lose in the tournament, but this team is different than others. Their depth and length are unmatched. It looked like Cincinnati had a chance early against them in the round of 32, but Kentucky’s depth shone through. The game was still close with about six minutes left in the first half, but Kentucky would eventually run away. While Cincy looked exhausted, Kentucky subbed in a whole new team. This kind of depth is why the Cats are the biggest favorite in the tourney, but they have a huge challenge in their next game. Bob Huggins is 8-2 lifetime against John Calipari. This includes West Virginia eliminating a John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins led Kentucky team in the Final Four in 2010. Huggins is a well-known innovator of the 1-3-1 zone defense. Due to lack of success over the last 2 years, however, he has implemented full court pressing and trapping. This puts an unbelievable amount of pressure on opposing guards, as evident in their recent tournament win against Maryland. In that game, West Virginia forced Maryland to turn the ball over 23 times, a season high. For Kentucky, freshman guard Devon Booker and the Harrison twins will either make or break the game. Pressing is West Virginia’s best chance to win, but there is a downside as well. Kentucky is very long and fast, meaning they will have many opportunities for transition points. The key for Kentucky is their two bigs, Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. They can run the floor as well as any other big men in the country. Kentucky is too complete, and West Virginia will falter late despite playing extremely well. I believe a strategy does exist to beat Kentucky, but it is almost impossible for a team to keep up with them for 40 minutes.
(3) Notre Dame vs (7) Wichita St.
Harkening back to my rant about seeding, this is a game where the better seed winning would feel like an upset. Wichita St. put forth one of the most impressive tournament performances thus far, when the dismantled Kansas 78-65. They held Kansas to 35% shooting, and they took control when they ended the first half on a 13-2 run. All five Wichita St. starters had double-digit points. It is a known fact that Kansas has been avoiding playing the in-state Shockers, so the way that game ended was rather satisfying. One might think the emotional high would have a negative impact moving forward, but Wichita St. is too experienced to let that happen. Coach Gregg Marshall has done a great job of keeping his team level headed during their tournament runs. Notre Dame is dealing with an emotional time as well. Coach Mike Brey lost his mother before their last game against Butler, which they won 67-64 in overtime. Brey decided to coach the game, and did not tell anyone until after the fact. Steve Vasturia scored 20 points and Jerian Grant dropped 16 against Butler. Much like Wichita St., they beat an in-state rival to get here. This is the first trip to the Sweet Sixteen for the Irish since 2003. ND senior guard Pat Connaughton made a game-saving block on Bulter’s Kellen Dunham. The block occurred with one second left in regulation. Connaughton is one of the only two-sport athletes left in the tournament. Also a baseball pitcher, Connaughton was drafted in the fourth round by the Baltimore Orioles last year. The emotions of wanting to win for coach and the reputation of the program will be strong for the Irish, and this game will be very competitive. Notre Dame has been playing a gritty brand of basketball, but they are simply not as good as the Shockers. The game will be close in the first half, but Wichita St. pulls away in the second.
(1) Wisconsin vs (4) North Carolina
The biggest upset I predicted on my bracket was Harvard over North Carolina in the first round, which was a missed buzzer-beater away from coming true. I have not been impressed by UNC’s effort thus far. They clearly have talent, but they have looked awful during some games. They have been playing better as of late; meaning this game against Wisconsin will likely be very close. Against Arkansas, UNC coach Roy Williams used an extremely small lineup that went on a 17-4 run. This exemplifies his coaching prowess, showing his ability to outsmart the opposing coach by coming up with perfect situational lineups. Wisconsin has been widely followed all year, with many pundits feeling they are the best team in the country outside of Kentucky. Much of this is due to their star Frank Kaminsky. The 6’11” power forward is averaging 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He is an extremely versatile scorer, with the ability to score from the inside or outside. Desmond Hubert, North Carolina’s 6-10 star defender, has been out for a while due to knee surgery. Kennedy Meeks, the 6’9” forward who is averaging 11.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, is doubtful with a sprained knee. Kaminsky is already a handful for anyone, especially a team without its frontcourt at full strength.
(3) Oklahoma vs (7) Michigan St.
This game feels a lot like Wichita St.-Notre Dame, with the worse seed being more proven. As I stated before, Michigan St. has been to the Sweet Sixteen seven of the last eight years. Coach Tom Izzo has put himself in the class of elite coaches, and the way his team plays reflects that. They were not particularly talented this year compared to others, evident by the losing Adreian Payne to the NBA. The Spartans had eleven losses this year. These included being swept by Wisconsin, and bad losses to Nebraska and Texas Southern. The rhetoric all year from MSU fans is that Izzo-coached teams play better at the end of the season. This has surely been the case so far. The Spartans played a beautiful game against Virginia, a team that went 29-3 in the regular season. Virginia is known for their staggering defense, so the Spartans beat them at their own game. They won with their own defense, and they made Virginia very uncomfortable early. Izzo’s presence was evident, based on the game plan and the fearless attitude of the team. Oklahoma returned four starters from last year (Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, Jordan Woodard, and Ryan Spangler). This is the fourth team Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger has taken to the Sweet Sixteen or further, making him the only person in history to do so. The others were Kansas State (1988 Elite Eight), Florida (1994 Final Four), and UNLV (2007 Sweet 16). Oklahoma’s frontcourt of Spangler and Thomas are great defensively, which will present a challenge to an undersized Spartan team. The team has vastly improved defensively this year. This game will present two contrasting styles, and it is hard to pick a winner. I believe the Spartans move on, but I would not be surprised if this game ends in a buzzer-beater.
Beyond the current round, Wisconsin and Duke have the best chance to beat Kentucky. If the Wildcats can defeat the tough-minded WVU Mountaineers, it will make them more battle-tested moving forward. There is still much excitement left in the tourney, but I’m picking Kentucky to win it all like everyone else.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
NFL Offseason 2015
NFL free agency is always exciting, but this year was more especially eventful. There were two many moves to write about in one article, but I will examine the four biggest signings/trades.
Ndamukong Suh (MIA: six years, $114 million, $60 million guaranteed)
Ndamukong Suh had been an elite defensive lineman for Detroit, but his recent contract was shocking to say the least. The contract Suh signed with the Dolphins is hard to fathom, especially considering he is not a quarterback. In is unprecedented for a defensive tackle to get $60 million guaranteed, but this shows that teams need to overspend to get the players they want. Suh is the closest thing to a modern day Reggie White. This signing illustrates the new defensive trend in the NFL. The success of the Seahawks, and New England’s refocus on defense, has changed the way teams are building now. The slew of defensive head coaches hired this offseason suggests that as well. A team like Miami probably feels like they have a better chance to slow opposing offenses rather than match them. This move will completely ruin the team’s cap in the next couple years, however. Some of the effects have already been seen, evident by losing DT Jared Odrick to Jacksonville and trading WR Mike Wallace to Minnesota. GM Mike Tannenbaum is very aggressive, something he showed when he was with the New York Jets. Overthecap.com’s Jason Fitzgerald says that Suh’s contract will only count for $6 million against the cap this season, but it will count for $21.9 from 2016 to 2018. Fitzgerald also stated that the team used the same contract structure the to sign Mike Wallace. He had a cap hit of $3.25 million in the first year and a $17.25 million hit in his second. It is inconceivable they will keep Suh for the life of the deal. In two years they will either restructure his deal, or trade him like the Saints did with Jimmy Graham. They almost have to. They must think they can win now and will be able to convince Suh to play for less in the future.
Darrelle Revis (NYJ: five years, $70 million, $40 million guaranteed)
New York Jets ex-GM John Idzik was widely criticized for failing to spend money last year, despite having plenty of cap room. Now with a new GM and a new attitude from owner Woody Johnson, the Jets have returned to their aggressive ways. They acquired WR Bradon Marshall from Chicago for a fifth round pick and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for a seventh. They also added DBs Buster Skrine, Antonio Cromartie, and Marcus Gilchrist in free agency. Nothing they did, however, was nearly as significant as reuniting with Darrelle Revis. Revis is undeniably a top three corner in the NFL. His presence automatically makes a team better. Revis famously left New York for Tampa Bay on bad terms two years ago, stemming from his numerous contract holdouts. It appears that his recent Super Bowl victory with the Pats, as well as the Jets being desperate, help mend the wounds. Games are not won on paper, but the Jets appear to be much better. As I said before, the Revis signing was one of many aimed at helping the secondary. The last two Super Bowl champs had stellar defensive backs, so I expect to see more teams follow that trend. The Jets also re-signed MLB David Harris, so the defense will be even better than last year. If the offense can come along, this team will be a playoff contender this year.
Jimmy Graham (traded from NO to SEA)
As I mentioned before, the salary cap can be a killer evidently. The Saints spent like drunken sailors over the last few years, and had minimal results to show for it. Their reckless ways have forced them to make some tough decisions, and getting rid of TE Jimmy Graham was the toughest so far. In five years, Graham has 4752 yards and 51 touchdowns, as well as three Pro Bowl appearances. For those who dislike the Seahawks for their eternal trash talking, seeing them lose the Super Bowl in heartbreaking fashion was somewhat entertaining. With that said, the team realized the needed to get better to stay at the top of the league. The obvious place to start was the mediocre passing game, which was ranked 27th in the league last year. Graham will not come anywhere near replicating the type of stats he was accustomed to in New Orleans, but his impact will be immense. Seattle has a great defense, so any offense they can add will help. I never expected them to make a move this big, so it should help counteract some of the players they lost in free agency over the last two years. The big question is how Seattle will keep everyone when they have to pay QB Russell Wilson soon. I would not be surprised is Graham gets moved in a couple years. The team may only see him as a short-term aid to winning another title.
The Eagles
Outside of the San Francisco 49ers, the Philadelphia Eagles have had the busiest offseason in the league. They traded RB LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for third year LB Kiko Alonso, and they acquired QB Sam Bradford for their own quarterback Nick Foles. They signed DeMarco Murray, the reigning rushing champ, from Dallas to replace McCoy. They also signed ex-Seattle cornerbacks Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond III. The Eagles have been the most exciting team in the league since Chip Kelly took over, but they have done very little in the playoffs. They looked like they might end up like the Eagles of the mid-2000s, a consistently successful team who cannot go all the way. These moves, while drastic, could be beneficial in the long run. Kelly realized he needed to improve his defense to be a real contender. Philly had a good d-line, but their linebackers and secondary were suspect. Alonso missed all of last year with a knee injury, but his rookie season was amazing. The 24-year-old Alonso tallied 159 tackles, two sacks, four interceptions, four pass deflections, four interceptions, and a forced fumble as a rookie in 2013. McCoy was a fan favorite, but this may have been the best move the team made. Maxwell will make $63 over six years, with $25.5 guaranteed. The Thurmond deal is for one year, $3.25. Although the Maxwell deal is a lot, it will cost very little against the cap after two seasons. The Murray signing is the only questionable one. His contract is for $40 million over five years, with $21 guaranteed. He is 27 and injury prone. This will hurt them down the road, but is a good pickup for the short term.
Ndamukong Suh (MIA: six years, $114 million, $60 million guaranteed)
Ndamukong Suh had been an elite defensive lineman for Detroit, but his recent contract was shocking to say the least. The contract Suh signed with the Dolphins is hard to fathom, especially considering he is not a quarterback. In is unprecedented for a defensive tackle to get $60 million guaranteed, but this shows that teams need to overspend to get the players they want. Suh is the closest thing to a modern day Reggie White. This signing illustrates the new defensive trend in the NFL. The success of the Seahawks, and New England’s refocus on defense, has changed the way teams are building now. The slew of defensive head coaches hired this offseason suggests that as well. A team like Miami probably feels like they have a better chance to slow opposing offenses rather than match them. This move will completely ruin the team’s cap in the next couple years, however. Some of the effects have already been seen, evident by losing DT Jared Odrick to Jacksonville and trading WR Mike Wallace to Minnesota. GM Mike Tannenbaum is very aggressive, something he showed when he was with the New York Jets. Overthecap.com’s Jason Fitzgerald says that Suh’s contract will only count for $6 million against the cap this season, but it will count for $21.9 from 2016 to 2018. Fitzgerald also stated that the team used the same contract structure the to sign Mike Wallace. He had a cap hit of $3.25 million in the first year and a $17.25 million hit in his second. It is inconceivable they will keep Suh for the life of the deal. In two years they will either restructure his deal, or trade him like the Saints did with Jimmy Graham. They almost have to. They must think they can win now and will be able to convince Suh to play for less in the future.
Darrelle Revis (NYJ: five years, $70 million, $40 million guaranteed)
New York Jets ex-GM John Idzik was widely criticized for failing to spend money last year, despite having plenty of cap room. Now with a new GM and a new attitude from owner Woody Johnson, the Jets have returned to their aggressive ways. They acquired WR Bradon Marshall from Chicago for a fifth round pick and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for a seventh. They also added DBs Buster Skrine, Antonio Cromartie, and Marcus Gilchrist in free agency. Nothing they did, however, was nearly as significant as reuniting with Darrelle Revis. Revis is undeniably a top three corner in the NFL. His presence automatically makes a team better. Revis famously left New York for Tampa Bay on bad terms two years ago, stemming from his numerous contract holdouts. It appears that his recent Super Bowl victory with the Pats, as well as the Jets being desperate, help mend the wounds. Games are not won on paper, but the Jets appear to be much better. As I said before, the Revis signing was one of many aimed at helping the secondary. The last two Super Bowl champs had stellar defensive backs, so I expect to see more teams follow that trend. The Jets also re-signed MLB David Harris, so the defense will be even better than last year. If the offense can come along, this team will be a playoff contender this year.
Jimmy Graham (traded from NO to SEA)
As I mentioned before, the salary cap can be a killer evidently. The Saints spent like drunken sailors over the last few years, and had minimal results to show for it. Their reckless ways have forced them to make some tough decisions, and getting rid of TE Jimmy Graham was the toughest so far. In five years, Graham has 4752 yards and 51 touchdowns, as well as three Pro Bowl appearances. For those who dislike the Seahawks for their eternal trash talking, seeing them lose the Super Bowl in heartbreaking fashion was somewhat entertaining. With that said, the team realized the needed to get better to stay at the top of the league. The obvious place to start was the mediocre passing game, which was ranked 27th in the league last year. Graham will not come anywhere near replicating the type of stats he was accustomed to in New Orleans, but his impact will be immense. Seattle has a great defense, so any offense they can add will help. I never expected them to make a move this big, so it should help counteract some of the players they lost in free agency over the last two years. The big question is how Seattle will keep everyone when they have to pay QB Russell Wilson soon. I would not be surprised is Graham gets moved in a couple years. The team may only see him as a short-term aid to winning another title.
The Eagles
Outside of the San Francisco 49ers, the Philadelphia Eagles have had the busiest offseason in the league. They traded RB LeSean McCoy to Buffalo for third year LB Kiko Alonso, and they acquired QB Sam Bradford for their own quarterback Nick Foles. They signed DeMarco Murray, the reigning rushing champ, from Dallas to replace McCoy. They also signed ex-Seattle cornerbacks Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond III. The Eagles have been the most exciting team in the league since Chip Kelly took over, but they have done very little in the playoffs. They looked like they might end up like the Eagles of the mid-2000s, a consistently successful team who cannot go all the way. These moves, while drastic, could be beneficial in the long run. Kelly realized he needed to improve his defense to be a real contender. Philly had a good d-line, but their linebackers and secondary were suspect. Alonso missed all of last year with a knee injury, but his rookie season was amazing. The 24-year-old Alonso tallied 159 tackles, two sacks, four interceptions, four pass deflections, four interceptions, and a forced fumble as a rookie in 2013. McCoy was a fan favorite, but this may have been the best move the team made. Maxwell will make $63 over six years, with $25.5 guaranteed. The Thurmond deal is for one year, $3.25. Although the Maxwell deal is a lot, it will cost very little against the cap after two seasons. The Murray signing is the only questionable one. His contract is for $40 million over five years, with $21 guaranteed. He is 27 and injury prone. This will hurt them down the road, but is a good pickup for the short term.
Tuesday, March 3, 2015
Is the NFL Combine Overemphasized?
The NFL Draft is still a couple months away, but the NFL
Combine is in full swing. The combine is where players have their athleticism
measured through a series of workouts. Instead of writing anything about the
data coming out of the combine, I chose to tear down the concept in general.
Film study used to be the most valued tool in prospect scouting, but guys with
stopwatches have taken over. Good teams know better. Constantly changing
personnel among some teams, however, can force teams to hire inexperienced
decision makers. The combine makes scouts giddy, but hopefully the trend shifts
soon.
A prime example of why the combine is overstated is current
Minnesota Vikings starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. In the combine last
year, he opted not to participate in the 40-yard dash or the throwing drills.
It is unknown why he took this risk, but his absence from these drills turned a
lot of teams off. What made matters worse is that he had a horrible pro day as
well beforehand. Bridgewater had been considered the top quarterback prospect
entering his last year at Louisville. He was said to have great leadership
qualities and very high football I.Q., but his stock started to nosedive after
the season when scouts started analyzing his workouts. He fell all the way
Minnesota at 32; ten picks after the Cleveland Browns selected Johnny Manziel.
While Bridgewater had a solid season and began to establish himself as a
leader, Manziel’s rookie season was marred by disappointment and alcohol abuse.
Anyone with a brain should have known Bridgewater was a better prospect than
Manziel all along.
The most noteworthy precautionary tale of falling in love
with combine performance is former Eagles defensive end Mike Mamula, the
seventh overall pick in the 1995 draft. He played
college ball at Boston College, and recorded 13 sacks as a senior. Going into
the draft, he was projected as a third round pick due to lack of size and
athleticism. Realizing this, Mamula specifically worked on workouts that he
would see in the combine. He practiced workouts such as the 40-yard dash,
vertical jump, and bench press. Having practiced these specific drills numerous
times, he had an all-time great combine. He recorded a stellar 4.58 time in the
40-yard dash, he lifted 225 pounds 28 times,
and his vertical jump was 38.5 inches. His draft stock skyrocketed, and he was
picked seventh (the Eagles traded up from twelfth). He was picked before Hall
of Famer Warren Sapp. Mamula had a decent five-year career, but he did not come
close to justifying such a high selection.
The combine does serve a purpose, but certain exercises
should be position-specific. A lineman should not have to run the 40. A
defensive back should not have to do the bench press. A quarterback should be
allowed to run the 40 if speed is part of his game, but it should not be a
requirement. I personally would allow prospects to choose which workouts they
want to do. In the end of the day, the combine has become a crutch for teams
who are unaware of how to build properly. Film study will always be the most
important tool in evaluating talent. I care much more about how my middle
linebacker sees the field and takes angles, rather than how fast his 40 is. Every
year teams draft fast receivers and defensive backs that do not understand the
game. Film allows one to study player’s instincts on the field, and how a
player can be incorporated into a system.
The fact that Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston is
still slated to go number one to Tampa Bay implies a change in thought, since
Winston looked terrible in the drills. His high football I.Q. is coming across
in interviews, which is keeping his stock high. The Bucs’ love affair with
Winston could also be due to the appeal of selling a home state kid, much like
Jacksonville drafting Blake Bortles from UCF third last year. The combine is
overhyped because of the media coverage it gets. It is shown all over NFL
Network for hours on end, a stark contrast to a short time ago where it got no
media coverage. The draft being pushed back a month was clearly meant to draw
more eyes. The combine gets shown on television to boost ratings, but teams are
putting too much stock into who has better numbers. Certain GM’s are starting
to get away from this analytics-centric way of thinking. If a slew of great
players who are not top end athletes come along, then every team will change
their thought process. Like I said before, the tape does not lie.
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