Like always, March Madness has been extremely captivating. The first round was characterized by upsets, but the cream is rising to the top now that the Sweet Sixteen is here. The eight Sweet Sixteen matchups are:
• (1) Kentucky vs (5) West Virginia
• (3) Notre Dame vs (7) Wichita St.
• (1) Wisconsin vs (4) North Carolina
• (2) Arizona vs (6) Xavier
• (4) Louisville vs (8) N.C. State
• (3) Oklahoma vs (7) Michigan St.
• (1) Duke vs (5) Utah
• (2) Gonzaga vs (11) UCLA
For the record, I believe four of these games will be blowouts: Duke over Utah, Gonzaga over UCLA, Louisville over N.C. State, and Arizona over Xavier. The other four will be close. UCLA was not expected to make the tournament at all, and they have not looked that impressive in their first two games. Although Gonzaga should beat them, they will be out of the tourney pretty soon. In Gonzaga’s entire history, the have never reached the Final Four (they have made the tournament 18 times).
I admit that I do not understand nor agree with the way teams are seeded. There is a six seed, two seven seeds, an eight seed, and an eleven seed remaining. It is a joke that Michigan St. and Wichita St. were both seeded so low, considering their recent tournament success. Wichita St. made the tourney four straight years, made a Final Four in 2013, and were a one-seed last year. Michigan St. has made the Sweet Sixteen seven of the last eight years. On the flip side, Gonzaga and Notre Dame were seeded well despite having no past tournament success whatsoever. I usually do not care much about seeding, but it matters when a team like Virginia has to play Michigan St. in the second round.
The most controversial call thus far in the tourney was clearly the goaltending call on SMU against UCLA. Louisville forward Yanick Moreira went up to grab a rebound on an attempted three by UCLA’s Bryce Alford. The shot was clearly off line, but it was also inches away from the rim when Moreira touched it. Although he took responsibility for the mistake, Moreira is still the one most responsible for the call. The frustrating part is how that he was clearly trying to get a rebound. The referees have been widely criticized, but I understand how that call can be made in the moment. This does not mean, however, that the play should not be reviewable. I hope this rule gets changed soon.
Their time in the tournament was short lived, but fourteen seed Georgia State and their head coach Ron Hunter captivated the country when they upset third seeded Baylor in the first round. His son R.J., the star guard on the team, scored 12 of the teams 13 points. He then proceeded to hit a deep three with 2.7 seconds left win the game. Hunter fell off of his stool, which he was sitting on because he tore his Achilles celebrating their conference title a year ago. The emotion coach Hunter showed was pure because he got to spend it with his son. Although they lost their next game, is still may be the lasting memory from the tournament so far.
(1) Kentucky vs (5) West Virginia
Although they have not played top competition yet, it is obvious that Kentucky is the class of college basketball. I believe that undefeated regular season teams will inevitably lose in the tournament, but this team is different than others. Their depth and length are unmatched. It looked like Cincinnati had a chance early against them in the round of 32, but Kentucky’s depth shone through. The game was still close with about six minutes left in the first half, but Kentucky would eventually run away. While Cincy looked exhausted, Kentucky subbed in a whole new team. This kind of depth is why the Cats are the biggest favorite in the tourney, but they have a huge challenge in their next game. Bob Huggins is 8-2 lifetime against John Calipari. This includes West Virginia eliminating a John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins led Kentucky team in the Final Four in 2010. Huggins is a well-known innovator of the 1-3-1 zone defense. Due to lack of success over the last 2 years, however, he has implemented full court pressing and trapping. This puts an unbelievable amount of pressure on opposing guards, as evident in their recent tournament win against Maryland. In that game, West Virginia forced Maryland to turn the ball over 23 times, a season high. For Kentucky, freshman guard Devon Booker and the Harrison twins will either make or break the game. Pressing is West Virginia’s best chance to win, but there is a downside as well. Kentucky is very long and fast, meaning they will have many opportunities for transition points. The key for Kentucky is their two bigs, Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns. They can run the floor as well as any other big men in the country. Kentucky is too complete, and West Virginia will falter late despite playing extremely well. I believe a strategy does exist to beat Kentucky, but it is almost impossible for a team to keep up with them for 40 minutes.
(3) Notre Dame vs (7) Wichita St.
Harkening back to my rant about seeding, this is a game where the better seed winning would feel like an upset. Wichita St. put forth one of the most impressive tournament performances thus far, when the dismantled Kansas 78-65. They held Kansas to 35% shooting, and they took control when they ended the first half on a 13-2 run. All five Wichita St. starters had double-digit points. It is a known fact that Kansas has been avoiding playing the in-state Shockers, so the way that game ended was rather satisfying. One might think the emotional high would have a negative impact moving forward, but Wichita St. is too experienced to let that happen. Coach Gregg Marshall has done a great job of keeping his team level headed during their tournament runs. Notre Dame is dealing with an emotional time as well. Coach Mike Brey lost his mother before their last game against Butler, which they won 67-64 in overtime. Brey decided to coach the game, and did not tell anyone until after the fact. Steve Vasturia scored 20 points and Jerian Grant dropped 16 against Butler. Much like Wichita St., they beat an in-state rival to get here. This is the first trip to the Sweet Sixteen for the Irish since 2003. ND senior guard Pat Connaughton made a game-saving block on Bulter’s Kellen Dunham. The block occurred with one second left in regulation. Connaughton is one of the only two-sport athletes left in the tournament. Also a baseball pitcher, Connaughton was drafted in the fourth round by the Baltimore Orioles last year. The emotions of wanting to win for coach and the reputation of the program will be strong for the Irish, and this game will be very competitive. Notre Dame has been playing a gritty brand of basketball, but they are simply not as good as the Shockers. The game will be close in the first half, but Wichita St. pulls away in the second.
(1) Wisconsin vs (4) North Carolina
The biggest upset I predicted on my bracket was Harvard over North Carolina in the first round, which was a missed buzzer-beater away from coming true. I have not been impressed by UNC’s effort thus far. They clearly have talent, but they have looked awful during some games. They have been playing better as of late; meaning this game against Wisconsin will likely be very close. Against Arkansas, UNC coach Roy Williams used an extremely small lineup that went on a 17-4 run. This exemplifies his coaching prowess, showing his ability to outsmart the opposing coach by coming up with perfect situational lineups. Wisconsin has been widely followed all year, with many pundits feeling they are the best team in the country outside of Kentucky. Much of this is due to their star Frank Kaminsky. The 6’11” power forward is averaging 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. He is an extremely versatile scorer, with the ability to score from the inside or outside. Desmond Hubert, North Carolina’s 6-10 star defender, has been out for a while due to knee surgery. Kennedy Meeks, the 6’9” forward who is averaging 11.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, is doubtful with a sprained knee. Kaminsky is already a handful for anyone, especially a team without its frontcourt at full strength.
(3) Oklahoma vs (7) Michigan St.
This game feels a lot like Wichita St.-Notre Dame, with the worse seed being more proven. As I stated before, Michigan St. has been to the Sweet Sixteen seven of the last eight years. Coach Tom Izzo has put himself in the class of elite coaches, and the way his team plays reflects that. They were not particularly talented this year compared to others, evident by the losing Adreian Payne to the NBA. The Spartans had eleven losses this year. These included being swept by Wisconsin, and bad losses to Nebraska and Texas Southern. The rhetoric all year from MSU fans is that Izzo-coached teams play better at the end of the season. This has surely been the case so far. The Spartans played a beautiful game against Virginia, a team that went 29-3 in the regular season. Virginia is known for their staggering defense, so the Spartans beat them at their own game. They won with their own defense, and they made Virginia very uncomfortable early. Izzo’s presence was evident, based on the game plan and the fearless attitude of the team. Oklahoma returned four starters from last year (Buddy Hield, Isaiah Cousins, Jordan Woodard, and Ryan Spangler). This is the fourth team Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger has taken to the Sweet Sixteen or further, making him the only person in history to do so. The others were Kansas State (1988 Elite Eight), Florida (1994 Final Four), and UNLV (2007 Sweet 16). Oklahoma’s frontcourt of Spangler and Thomas are great defensively, which will present a challenge to an undersized Spartan team. The team has vastly improved defensively this year. This game will present two contrasting styles, and it is hard to pick a winner. I believe the Spartans move on, but I would not be surprised if this game ends in a buzzer-beater.
Beyond the current round, Wisconsin and Duke have the best chance to beat Kentucky. If the Wildcats can defeat the tough-minded WVU Mountaineers, it will make them more battle-tested moving forward. There is still much excitement left in the tourney, but I’m picking Kentucky to win it all like everyone else.
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