CFB National Championship Prediction

My semifinal predictions were very wrong, but things happen. Turnovers derailed Florida State’s chances against Oregon, and Ohio State’s running game elevated them to a win over Alabama. With the title game set, I explore who will win and why.

Oregon QB Marcus Mariota had one of the great years in college football history, and he showed his ability in the Rose Bowl. Against Florida State, he threw for 338 yards with two touchdowns and a pick. He also ran for 62 yards. In the regular season, he threw 38 touchdowns with only two picks, and he ran for 669 yards. 

Oregon ran a play every 20.2 seconds in the Rose Bowl, and they racked up 639 yards. Oregon averaged 48.2 points per game. They are third in the country in 552.9 yards per game, and their 7.39 yards per play is second. I there is a weakness, WR Devon Allen hurt his knee on the opening kickoff of the Rose Bowl and will likely miss the title game. Allen is second on the team with 41 catches for 674 yards and seven touchdowns. RB Thomas Tyner ran for 124 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries in the Rose Bowl, much of which came in obvious running situations due to the score. A shoulder injury and sore ankle kept Tyner out of Oregon's last three games before the Rose Bowl. He has been losing caries to freshman Royce Freeman, but Tyner being healthy bodes for a deadly two-headed monster. Oregon’s o-line was at full strength last week, and the difference was evident. Ohio Sate has struggled to stop the run, allowing 142 rushing yards per game.

If the Buckeyes have any chance, they will need to put pressure on Marcus Mariota. In order for this to happen, they will rely on sophomore DE Joey Bosa. He was a freshman All-American last year, and he piled up 46 tackles this year. Though he has been great at times, he has struggled lately. He has gone without a sack or tackle for loss in the last two games. In the 12 previous games, Bosa tallied 13.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. The Buckeyes defensive front will have the greatest responsibility in the game.

Oregon stomped the defending national champions Florida State 59-20 in the Rose Bowl on Thursday. Their defense shown through, which makes for a lethal combo when mixed with their innovative offense. Oregon’s defense allows 406.3 yards per game, but they only allow 22.3 points per game. Oregon’s defense has been playing much better lately. In the last four games, Oregon has allowed 10, 19, 13 and 20 points. Also, they forced 30 turnovers this year (second to Michigan State).  Their pass defense could be the biggest disadvantage. They allow 265.9 passing yards per game, much of which comes in garbage time when the Ducks are leading. Even so, the Buckeyes like to go deep. They have had 51 passing plays of 20-yards or more. Oregon has allowed 44 passing plays of 20-yards or more this year. OSU WR Devin Smith led the NCAA in yards per catch (26.6) on only 30 receptions. QB Cardale Jones made his second career start in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama, and played well. He threw for 243 yards with a touchdown and a pick, and ran for 43 yards. RB Ezekiel Elliot was the star of the Sugar Bowl, running for 230 yards on 20 carries.

Ohio State showed their ability to win big games, which is a testament to coach Urban Meyer. He was able to beat Nick Saban and Alabama with a third-string quarterback. They play a tough brand of football, which is the typical strategy against Oregon. The Seminoles clearly attempted this strategy like I predicted, but the two Dalvin Cook fumbles derailed them. Both fumbles led to Oregon touchdowns. Jameis Winston’s fumble added insult to injury. 

Clock control is still the best bet, but Ohio State will need to be completely mistake free to win. Ohio State has the roster and the coaching to do it, but Oregon has a tendency to run away with games in the blink of an eye. This game will be close in the first half, but Oregon pulls away in the second. Oregon wins 42-31.

Photos from bleacherreport.com