Super Bowl LIII Prediction

Another NFL season is coming to an end, so I’m bracing for a somber upcoming eight months. I had not been contemplating what to write about next since the NBA is borderline unwatchable, but I’ll figure something out. Anyway, controversy aside, the Super Bowl matchup is set between the Patriots and Rams. I had a feeling the Pats would be back despite looking human much of the year. The Rams were one of the two best teams in the NFC, so they have been pretty consistent all season. This game will be the classic matchup between old and new. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have been together since 2000, while Jared Goff and Sean McVay are in their third and second seasons respectively. Goff and McVay are a combined age of 57, nine years younger than Belichick. McVay has set the NFL on fire since being hired in 2017. He came up through the Mike Shanahan tree in Washington, and coached alongside Kyle Shanahan and newly hired Packers coach Matt LaFleur. Although he is mature beyond his years, this will be the most pressure he’s ever faced. New England is a slight betting favorite, due to the fact they are playing their best ball in the playoffs. When a team with this much experience gets hot, they can be scary. Their commitment to the run has been crucial, as it has allowed them to dominate time of possession and be very effective in the play action game. Rob Gronkowski has continued to be an asset due to his outstanding blocking, and last week he showed he can still catch the ball. They have enough talent to effectively run a game plan, even if no one is a star on their own. Belichick recruits guys who want to be coached meticulously, allowing for this level of discipline. Although I believe New England’s defense will play well, I haven’t gotten their performance in the last Super Bowl out of my mind. They were shredded by Nick Foles and the Eagles, allowing 538 yards (the Pats had 613 themselves). This is why my gut says it will be a high scoring game, but the Rams are the team more likely to be slowed down. Goff doesn’t exactly pass the eye test, but his two year improvement from his rookie campaign is undeniable. He showed mental toughness by surviving the Jeff Fisher era and fans calling him a bust. With that said, the Rams offense is hard to figure out. Many say it’s extremely innovative, others say it’s all based on pre-play confusion. Todd Gurley was a superstar all year, but he has essentially been benched for C.J. Anderson the last few games. Goff may be the most non-descript #1 overall picked QB ever. All of these factors make a one game outcome hard to predict, but that does not mean they cannot put it all together. The Rams receivers will have to step up to make everyone else’s job easier. This will be a tall task, since the injured Cooper Kupp was their only true slot guy. The x-factor for this game is the Rams defense. Brady will get the ball out quickly as always, so Aaron Donald and company will not get a bunch of sacks most likely. But if the secondary can keep Brady’s receivers from getting open, that could play right into their hands. I would say this was impossible if Aqib Talib was still injured. His presence will be huge, considering he’s still an elite man coverage corner at the advanced age of 32. The Rams need to make sure they stop the run, which has been a struggle for them. They allowed 5.1 rushing yards per attempt, last in the NFL. If Sony Michel gets going, the Pats will have their wish of being able to control the clock. Let’s keep it real, both teams will score plenty of points. The outcome is usually decided by who makes the critical stops late. If experience is a factor, advantage Pats. The underdog narrative being pushed by Brady and the team seems ridiculous, but it may actually help. Despite the fact they always run roughshod over the AFC, it has not been a given they will win the big game as of late. Maybe a slight amount of extra motivation breeds a more precise focus. I may be reading the tea leaves too deeply, but this Patriots team has a different vibe going in to the Super Bowl than they did last year. Unless Jared Goff channels his idol Joe Montana, the Rams will fall just short. Todd Gurley will at the bare minimum be rusty, whether his lack of use is due to injury or otherwise. I doubt C.J. Anderson can carry them to victory against a superior defensive mind. Patriots win 42-37.