Happy New Years everybody. The inaugural NCAA Football
Playoff is here, meaning the anticipation if almost over. These are my
predictions for the two opening games.
#2 Oregon (12-1) vs. #3 Florida State (13-0):
Florida State won the BCS championship against Auburn last
year, which was part of their current 29-game winning streak. Quarterback
Jameis Winston has been a distraction off the field at times, but his on-field
leadership is uncanny.
He has the coveted clutch gene, seeming to always make
the right play at the right time. In the ACC Championship game against Georgia
Tech, Winston threw for 309 yards, going
21-of-30 with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. WR Rashad Greene had a great year, serving
as Winston’s top target. He had 93 receptions for 1306 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Their next leading receiver is TE Nick O’Leary (47 receptions, 614 yards), so
the one-on-one matchup Greene faces will be key. Oregon’s star CB, senior Ifo
Ekpre-Olomu, suffered a severe
knee injury in practice a couple
weeks ago. Troy Hill will be thrust into his spot. Hill, also
a senior, started twelve games and made second-team All-Pac-12. He will not be overwhelmed, but
Greene will still have the advantage in this matchup. Regardless, the Seminoles
will desperately need production from their other receivers.
The greatest
challenge for FSU will be on the defensive side of the ball. Oregon has always
been known for explosive offense, and this year has been no different. Quarterback
Marcus Mariota had one of the great years in college football history, and it
culminated in winning the Heisman in a landslide. He threw 38 touchdowns with
only two picks, and he ran for 669 yards.
Oregon’s running game led the Pac-12
in rushing yards. The system Chip Kelly
implemented is still in tact, and it has paid dividends. Their 38-31
victory at Washington State was
the only game they won by single digits. The lingering effects from this game
bled into the next week when they suffered their one loss to Arizona, but they
recovered and won eight straight since. The Ducks’ offensive line is something to pay attention to.
They suffered significant injuries to starters Tyler Johnstone,
Andre Yruretagoyena, Jake Fisher and Hroniss Grasu. Johnstone has missed the
entire season with a torn ACL, but the rest of the line will be healthy against
Bama. The Ducks’ have struggled against the pass rush, but they still may
succeed Thursday. FSU averaged
fewer sacks per game than any
team in the ACC. They only have one sack in the last four games. If they do get
pressure, they will need help from blitzing safety Jalen Ramsey.
Florida State likes to come from behind, but
that will be difficult against Oregon. Once the Ducks take a lead, they rarely
relinquish it. The Noles’ best chance is to control the clock with the running
game, and the have the running back to do it. Freshman Dalvin Cook got off to a
slow start, but he has been playing elite football lately. He ran for 144 and
177 yards in his last two games, against Florida and Georgia Tech respectively.
He is averaging 6.4 yards per carry in his last four games. Oregon’s defense is
better than usual, but Cook will be a handful.
This game will likely be decided in the first five
minutes. Oregon needs to score early to establish themselves, but this is not
necessarily the case for FSU. If the Seminoles can play physical ball and keep
the score low, they can take Oregon out of their game. I believe the running
game and clock control will allow FSU to manage the game. Florida State wins
24-20.
#1 Alabama (12-1) vs. #4 Ohio State (12-1):
Alabama is a nine-point favorite, so it is safe to say
they are expected to win. Bama has looked impressive for most of the year, but
they have not looked as invincible as they have in the past. They lost at Ole
Miss 23-17 on October 4, and struggled in three other games. They only beat
Arkansas by one, needed overtime against LSU, and they trailed Auburn by twelve
before rallying to win. Defense was their calling card as always. They are
tenth in the NCAA in total defense (312.4 ypg), and first in rushing defense
(88.69 ypg). The offense took some time to click under new OC Lane Kiffin, but
it looks good now. First year starting QB, senior Blake Sims, threw for 3250
yards with 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Junior WR Amari Cooper was a
Heisman finalist, tallying 115 receptions, 1656 yards, and 14 touchdowns.
Running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry ran for 932 and 895 yards
respectively.
For Ohio State to win, they will need to play a perfect game.
Buckeye QB Cardale Jones is making his second career start. He was the third
string QB to start the season, but got promoted after injuries to Braxton
Miller and J.T. Barrett. Jones is a 22-year-old senior, so he at least has
practice experience. Working with elite quarterbacks coach Tom Herman should
help. However, the fact that he's only started one game will make for a tall
task against the stout Bama defense.
His one start came in the team’s last
game, a 59-0 blowout against Wisconsin in the Big Ten
championship game. Despite the lopsided final score, Jones did not throw much
due to the effectiveness of the running game. Ohio State may try to attack the
Alabama defense the same way Tennessee did. Vols QB Joshua Dobbs ran for 75
yards on 19 carries, mainly on zone-read plays. Jones is not particularly fast,
but he has the size to handle the hits (6’5”, 250).
Ohio State likes to throw
deep, and giving up the deep ball could be the one weakness the Bama defense
possesses. OSU WR Devin Smith led the NCAA in yards per catch (26.6) on only 30
receptions.
The Buckeyes have a slight chance, but everything will have to go
right in order for them to win. The game will be close in the first half, but
the Tide pulls away in the second. Alabama
wins 45-24.
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